Model Output Discussion - January 11th.

[Radiating Dendrite]

and when that happens watch this forum fill up :lol:

Ecm +240 looked good but as usual quite far away -_-

My problem is the ECM +240 has seemed to look good for weeks now!

I would like to see an ECM +48 that looked good.

[nick sussex]

I was talking hypothetically, this is all a long way off. But members should not be misled by posters with an EA/SE bias dictating what they claim is best for the UK, when in fact it is just best for what’s them.

OMG! I don't live in the UK so how can I be biased to the se!

Can we just move on from this, we've been here before, lets agree to disagree. Whats best for me here in sw France is an east to ne flow so by all means call me biased to here but not to an area of the UK where I DONT EVEN LIVE ANYMORE!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just looked at UKMO and it does look a lot better.

It has previously been the model that has been the party pooper, so maybe this is a positive sign as it seems a lot less volatile than the GFS and even ECM to a certain extent.

[phil nw.]

I must admit all this varying output can be very wearing.

To minmise model fatigue that can be caused by all the changes run to run i have been focusing more on the next few days and following any subtle differences.

I have tended to look at the UKMO output for this to compare the day to day changes on one model.

The 2 images below show the expected pattern at 12z Mon.16.1.the first one issued 2 days ago and the other one 00z today.

Note that our block is modelled to be a little stronger that it was 48hrs. ago and this may delay any switch to milder weather a day or so longer.

We can also see still evidence of weak troughing to our west which had been removed on the earlier output.This will delay the Azores High link up ,and thus, any South Westerly flow coming in from the Atlantic.

I think this just illustrates the difficulty in modelling fine detail and how small changes can occur even in the short range and with the same model.

If you can then imagine how this compounds as time goes on and add in the the changes from different models then we can understand why we should use the later frames carefully.

Look for trends to repeat etc but try not take each run literally.

A view of the Northern hemisphere charts is usefull too,especially now as the current changes over the pole with the modelling of the vortex can be seen much better.

I hope this helps to keep perspective when analyising the models,particularly for the newer members.

Edited January 12, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The UKMO 96 H chart shows how close we came to an Easterly if the block was only a couple of hundred miles further north i think it would be game ON.

While the 144h chart keeps the block well placed to the NE the Atlantic profile doesn't look anything other than flat to me but we'll see what this evenings run looks like.

Hopefully GFS 06z ensembles are useless because they are not a pretty picture.

The main hope for me this morning is the 0z ECM op which looks very prmosing at 240h but the evolution looks very dodgy IMO and i'd have little confidence in it at this stage!!

[phil nw.]

The UKMO 96 H chart shows how close we came to an Easterly if the block was only a couple of hundred miles further north i think it would be game ON.

While the 144h chart keeps the block well placed to the NE the Atlantic profile doesn't look anything other than flat to me but we'll see what this evenings run looks like.

Hopefully GFS 06z ensembles are useless because they are not a pretty picture.

The main hope for me this morning is the 0z ECM op which looks very prmosing at 240h but the evolution looks very dodgy IMO and i'd have little confidence in it at this stage!!

The T96 chart issed today 00z HD,the T144 was issued on the 10th.

That was my point --differences for the same date mon.16th.

Edited January 12, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nick the UKMO 144 is excellent today-

S

Agreed, when replying to Nick the other day I mentioned it would be good to get UKMO on board and if we get that then we could be onto something as UKMO is almost neartime.

BFTP

[nick sussex]

A very interesting morning update from NOAA regarding the all important PV and the increase in jet stream strength across the USA fuelled by colder air sinking south into Canada.

http://www.hpc.ncep....epd/preepd.html

Because of this strong jet its imperative you get the block to ne orientated favourably to divert some of that energy se into Europe.

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[Richard Lake]

Disappointing charts today in comparison to Monday's easterly-fest from GFS. However, I didn't fall for that one, would have been nice, but too progressive.

Yes, okay charts from UKMO and ECM today, but they never seem to enter the 96-144 timeframe!

@IB Sort your font size out -its ridiculously small.

[SMU]

THe GFS 00z is currently the WORST performing model out the top 5, placed behind the canadian at day 5-

The 06z GFS is a fair way behind the 00z GFS- so net that makes the GFS 06z & associated ensembles cannon fodder of the highest order...

S

[phil nw.]

For what it`s worth i think the UKMO and ECM at T144 are pretty close.

and would both model Atlantic ridging and the Scandi trough by Friday next.

No reason to think this couldn`t happen,all the medium range charts we spoke of last night point to this pattern.

Some detail will likely change-hopefully for more buckling,sharpening the troughing into Europe before it becomes cut off.

Meanwhile the GFS at T138(06z run)is more progressive.

that would delay any change bringing the resident Azores high in for another visit.

As it looks to be similar to the 00z -and that has been dropped by the forecasters over there- it seems to be the outside bet.

Edited January 12, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Disappointing charts today in comparison to Monday's easterly-fest from GFS. However, I didn't fall for that one, would have been nice, but too progressive.

Yes, okay charts from UKMO and ECM today, but they never seem to enter the 96-144 timeframe!

@IB Sort your font size out -its ridiculously small.

Well the UKMO only goes out to +144, so they are in the timeframe.

[Frosty.]

Can you delete that last sentence please Frosty?

Done, it was OTT but I was genuinely delighted by the Ecm 00z beyond T+168 hours and believe that beyond T+240 hours it would have had potential to drag even colder air and more snow from NE Europe.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Frosty039

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Because of this strong jet its imperative you get the block to ne orientated favourably to divert some of that energy se into Europe.

That can go two ways, poor orientation...we know the rest.....favourable orientation and a trigger LP and 'acceleration' of cold set up.

BFTP

[Robbie Garrett]

ECM does look rather nice, what is with GFS though looks like watching paint dry. I knew there would be some sort of change, but when was the question!

[john mac]

That can go two ways, poor orientation...we know the rest.....favourable orientation and a trigger LP and 'acceleration' of cold set up.

BFTP

I'll take the second option thanks BFTP. I'm happy with the situation atm at least we have 2out of 3 models showiing a cold set up. Now just for the GFS to follow suit this afternoon.

[kold weather]

The only thing I will say about the GFS 06z is that at least it keeps things frosty rather then just allowing the Atlanticn SW airflows to come rip-roaring back in and warming things up. It could go somewhere in the long term but on the 06z it sorta gets stuck at halfway house as others have said.

[feb1991blizzard]

I disagree that the cold would be going into the Atlantic - we had all this prior to the December 2010 cold spell (the second one) when people said that you would need be on a boat West of Ireland to see snow and that the trough must be further East etc.. it was all nonsense.

Ian you were one of the ones, from what i can remember the ECM was the only one that stuck by a milder outcome, when every other model showed a very strong HP cell over Greenland and weeks of deep cold and every media forecast suggested that outcome.

[nick sussex]

Done, it was OTT but I was genuinely delighted by the Ecm 00z beyond T+168 hours and believe that beyond T+240 hours it would have had potential to drag even colder air and more snow from NE Europe.

The ECM is a good output in terms of potential and the UKMO at 144hrs is suggestive of a positive conclusion for cold as its likely to displace the high to the south quickly, the quickest route to cold is the best as it leaves less time for other variables to pop up.

For this reason thats the trend you want to see at around 132hrs tonight.

[bluearmy]

Nick the UKMO 144 is excellent today-

ECM not bad-

the 06z suite- well its the GFS 06z- the most loathed run of teh day with its usual attempts to resolve northern blocking end in the usual outcomes of the overrunning pattern-

About as accurate as PWSolutions forecasts!

I will try & punt out a post at 330 just before the PM runs- but ever so slowley we are getting there- Remember 2/3 bites is what it usually takes to get the Cold from eastern Europe > to Central Europe> to Western europe & the UK being th elast along the line....

S

the 06z parallel gefs much better than the standard but the whole pattern is too far east - no doubt the stronger jet responsble. also the vortex headed towards greenland deep fi. the cpc 14 dayer will be interesting this evening.

[TEITS]

I disagree that the cold would be going into the Atlantic - we had all this prior to the December 2010 cold spell (the second one) when people said that you would need be on a boat West of Ireland to see snow and that the trough must be further East etc.. it was all nonsense.

I remember when this happened and the ECM at the time was modelling the trough to be way out in the Atlantic. Thankfully nearer the time the models started backing this E to be centred over the UK. Myself and Nick were quiet correct at the time because the trough being centred to the W of the UK would of resulted in milder SW,lys. Im surprised im having to tell you this because its pretty basic Meteorology.

Edited January 12, 2012 by chionomaniac
to stop it becoming personal

[bluearmy]

Ian you were one of the ones, from what i can remember the ECM was the only one that stuck by a milder outcome, when every other model showed a very strong HP cell over Greenland and weeks of deep cold and every media forecast suggested that outcome.

wrong. the archive runs are on meteociel. ian, whilst initially disbelieving of the evolution, was on board once the pattern came within range of ecm and the other 10 day models. once it was coming, he was as much a 'ramper' as anyone.

I remember when this happened and the ECM at the time was modelling the trough to be way out in the Atlantic. Thankfully nearer the time the models started backing this E to be centred over the UK. Myself and Nick were quiet correct at the time because the trough being centred to the W of the UK would of resulted in milder SW,lys. Im surprised im having to tell you this because its pretty basic Meteorology.

that was the mid december one TEITS. two ecm runs with a west based -NAO. The end nov was a clockwork countdown.

Edited January 12, 2012 by chionomaniac
removed deleted section

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Compared to the last 2 Winters it has been very different and in my opinion no matter what happens from 10 days time Winter 11/12 will go down in records as being mild and indeed if Feb doesn't see some decent cold it could go down as one of the mildest on record.

Indeed, I removed a live wasp from my bathroom this morning! It has been exceptionally mild in the East Midlands and with still very little precipitation.

[johnholmes]

Well I finally got it finished-the pdf I promised this morning.

Longer term outlooks-thur 12 jan 12.pdf

[kold weather]

Not sure the UKMO is as good as people think, the main reason for that is note the small cut-off low that forms near the Azores, its angled NE which is usually a very good hint of where the jet is going whilst at the same time the previous weak secondary depression that might have become a cut-off low decays and weakens, never a great sign to get cold in. Couple that with the PV expanding eastwards as it pivots around and I think the end result won't be that cold set-up people are expecting...but its always difficult to tell with the UKMO!

Its probably heading towards a form of cold zonality...