Model Output Discussion - January 11th.

[ukpaul]

Looking at the GFS/ECM comparison now at around 138 I tend to believe the ECM as it doesn't push the lows through with as much power and as far East, I've been burned too many times with GFS whipping up storms that get downgraded to believe that it isn't been similarly too hasty here also. By 174 the difference is ridiculous as GFS has piled one on top of the other.

Edited January 11, 2012 by ukpaul

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not a million miles away from the 192 chart from the ECM this evening

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120111/12/ecm500.192.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120111/18/192/h500slp.png

[lorenzo]

Compared to where we were at the end of the weekend..(below left) and a carved NS split across the NH view.

Tonights run takes the NW-SE solution much mentioned for the Jet and applies across the whole NH !

Am drawn to the circled area on the chart below from this run (below right), can any of our experts explain please?

[January Snowstorm]

If you look at +6hrs and +180hrs in tonights 18z run how far has the azores high moved

Im sorry but there just isnt any progress being made to acold route in tonights 18z run

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18z looks a monster run compared to 12z, watch 216 for t240 ....should be start of epic synoptics....seriously better than 12z should be the outcome..300+ armageddon.....as limpet HP settles over UK..............bizarre :smilz38:

BFTP

Edited January 11, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

18z looks a monster run compared to 12z, watch for t216 to 240....should be start of epic synoptics....seriously better than 12z should be the outcome

BFTP

we must be looking at different runs Fred the 18Z is just one low after another being thrown off that PV.

[January Snowstorm]

18z looks a monster run compared to 12z, watch 216 for t240 ....should be start of epic synoptics....seriously better than 12z should be the outcome..300+ armageddon.

BFTP

Would it be ok if you elaborate on above as I don't really see it?

[ukpaul]

Jet Stream's gone walkies by 300h but, to be frank, I think it blew it earlier in the run by pushing it through ever harder.

[ITSY]

may be set up to get there eventually but as it stands there is a clear lack of cold pre 240

EDIT: we certainly DO get there eventually

we needed a second bite at the cherry on this run and, who knows, it may take 2 or 3 attempts. pattern phantomly being pushed back, but it is still there

Edited January 11, 2012 by ITSY

[chionomaniac]

If you look at +6hrs and +180hrs in tonights 18z run how far has the azores high moved

Im sorry but there just isnt any progress being made to acold route in tonights 18z run

Have you ever tried looking at the bigger picture the NH charts offer, JS?

Can you see any difference here then?

Still no progress?

[bluearmy]

steve has a phrase for runs like that. just comparing it to ens mean output from the 12z shows it goes walkabouts early in low res, if not earlier.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

And so the overall trend remains pretty much the same. Cold surface temperatures for the bulk of the run with brief milder interludes as the high pressure over us moves around, followed by an easterly of sorts towards the end of the run. Thats 3 runs today from the gfs which end with a much more blocked, colder easterly based pattern. Forget the detail as FI starts after 4/5 days. The trends both on the GFS and ECM remain good for cold in my opinion as we head towards late January.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[January Snowstorm]

Have you ever tried looking at the bigger picture the NH charts offer, JS?

Can you see any difference here then?

Still no progress?

Heights building at the other side of the pole is what I see, 1000's of miles away.

I do not see how that could or will have a bearing on our weather

Edited January 11, 2012 by January Snowstorm

[ChartViewer]

Have you ever tried looking at the bigger picture the NH charts offer, JS?

Can you see any difference here then?

Still no progress?

Hi CH...I certainly wouldnt deny progress but when will progress come to fruition. Even now there is mention of a 20 day change...that to me means 1st Feb?.... 4 weeks left of Winter proper.....

In the reliable timeframe I see on the NH charts an ever extending Azores High ridging North and a strong PV.....As Nick said until you really see that changing in the T96 to T144 timeframe you really cant change views especially when you have had 4 runs tonight all showing an extended Azores High ridging North.

Surprised BFTP is now quoting +300 range as well!!!

Edited January 11, 2012 by ChartViewer

[Cloud 10]

If you look at +6hrs and +180hrs in tonights 18z run how far has the azores high moved

Im sorry but there just isnt any progress being made to acold route in tonights 18z run

Things look better from the wider view at 180hrs,with low pressure being forced more

and more south-east as pressure builds to the far north-east,which is very much in line

with the ECM ensembles etc.

[Paul]

The models: summed up - it's new and a bit different:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72208-the-models-summed-up/

[swilliam]

The 18z was uncannily similar to the 12 Z despite the PV being further West. We had to wait till the end to get the easterly again.

For those unhappy about the output you just need to be patient - mxxxxxx about the charts will not changeanything.

[mountain shadow]

Heights building at the other side of the pole is what I see, 1000's of miles away.

I do not see how that could or will have a bearing on our weather

It has every bearing on our weather and I;m surprised an experienced model watcher like yourself has come out with that statement.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi CH...I certainly wouldnt deny progress but when will progress come to fruition. Even now there is mention of a 20 day change...that to me means 1st Feb?.... 4 weeks left of Winter proper.....

In the reliable timeframe I see on the NH charts an ever extending Azores High ridging North and a strong PV.....As Nick said until you really see that changing in the T96 to T144 timeframe you really cant change views especially when you have had 4 runs tonight all showing an extended Azores High ridging North.

Surprised BFTP is now quoting +300 range as well!!!

Those charts show the Polar Vortex moving westwards, as shown by the GFS ensemble mean http://176.31.229.22...21-1-174.png?18 NOAA height anomalies chart http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

Note also the huge positive anomalies across the pole. The heights to the south are a bit of a frustration in the short-medium term, and that will be a hurdle that needs to be overcome, but with the PV backing west we should be able to get some kind of ridging northwards(or perhaps movement westwards) to resolve that at some point. The fleeting easterly is gone - we can all agree on that, but things do look to be falling into place for the last 10 days of the month.

Edited January 11, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[chionomaniac]

Heights building at the other side of the pole is what I see, 1000's of miles away.

I do not see how that could or will have a bearing on our weather

If you get a puncture, JS, the whole tyre deflates, it isn't just the area of the hole that is affected.

[Daniel Miller]

Hmm... Where WOULD the cold be coming from, if it were to come later this month?

All I can see on that run is when the uppers are cold enough for snow, we have high pressure over us, which wouldn't really deliver, would it? :S

Also, if we do get cold, could it be a long term event or just a business week thing?

[winter watcher]

Those charts show the Polar Vortex moving westwards, as shown by the GFS ensemble mean http://176.31.229.22...21-1-174.png?18 NOAA height anomalies chart http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

Note also the huge positive anomalies across the pole. The heights to the south are a bit of a frustration in the short-medium term, and that will be a hurdle that needs to be overcome, but with the PV backing west we should be able to get some kind of ridging northwards(or perhaps movement westwards) to resolve that at some point. The fleeting easterly is gone - we can all agree on that, but things do look to be falling into place for the last 10 days of the month.

I disagree on the point highlighted. The models of late has been all over the place for instance 36 - 48 hours ago when the easterly disappeared only for it to dramatically reappear the following morning with all big three singing from the same sheet and now again we see models dropping the idea. Who is not to say that it will not reappear again in tomorrows models. I can understand every cold lovers disappointments as i am one myself but easterly's are never straight forward to forecast and hence the reason why i believe that this will go down to the wire.

[TEITS]

Hmm... Where WOULD the cold be coming from, if it were to come later this month?

All I can see on that run is when the uppers are cold enough for snow, we have high pressure over us, which wouldn't really deliver, would it? :S

Also, if we do get cold, could it be a long term event or just a business week thing?

At this moment in time nobody can be specific.

When you have such varied model output its difficult to find a trend. However despite the varying model output it does look possible that we might see the pattern changing. This change could be the PV finally backing W with HP extending from Russia to Svalbard. However at the moment we don't know exactly when or if this will occur and how cold the weather may become.

[bobbydog]

well, on the advice of the experienced members, i have been watching the 'trend' of the models, rather than each runs result.

taking into account, that what we want to see, is not necessarily what the weather will do, from my observations i have seen a trend towards an epic spell of winter weather, then a gradual return to cooler, but not so epic weather. any 'proper cold' seems to be pushed back into FI on each run. again, this seems to be the trend. there are many variations to each run, mainly after about +120 but the trend now seems to be going away from deep continental cold to the odd atlantic cold shot. the overall pattern has definitely changed but not necessarily in the favour of proper winter weather for the uk. as it stands now, it could easily change but it is finely balanced to go either way.

just my own observation.

[Daniel Miller]

At this moment in time nobody can be specific.

When you have such varied model output its difficult to find a trend. However despite the varying model output it does look possible that we might see the pattern changing. This change could be the PV finally backing W with HP extending from Russia to Svalbard. However at the moment we don't know exactly when or if this will occur and how cold the weather may become.

Thanks for the reply I'll be honest, this is probably the most unsure I've seen the models and this forum since I joined. Everything is so volatile, changing every single run to something different!

From what I can gather, the setup we're currently in is one that has many different doors leading out from it.. Hopefully we can get the right one!