Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

[Isolated Frost]

The upper trough solution at 500mb on the ECM seems very feasible, very similar to the recent outputs with a more eastern upper trough with that pv with a typical influence for n canada and the w arctic, the siberian high with an increasing effect.

The ridge solution is unique and brings them -8c uppers into the UK... Very gp-esque, hints of a cold spell increasing from the east, but surely that nw wind is going to be more longlasting , or perhaps not.

One more strat warming is still my motto, that would really let the floodgates open, and encouraging signs indeed regarding the zonal flux, and the composite on the tech thread.

Btw , consistency and progression from the european model, and it has so much more interaction with the 500mb charts.. The ECM 500mb charts found on their site, the GFS strat found on netweather extra, ECM strat at the berlin site, and then the wealth of data on netweather forums itself.. A rocky and eventful road to come, and the only way is cold for my two pence..

[The Northern Ramper]

Those expecting the 18z to move over towards the ECM later should take into account the info on the earlier model thread today where there is less data used in the 6z and 18z compared to the other two runs.

[bluearmy]

If you think ECM are mean with their data, you should have been here years ago. Three years ago we only had sight of the model out to T168.

It was only last winter that we got to see the ensembe means output. Its only this winter that we get to see the postage stamps each run.

Take the time to look through the postage stamps later. According to someone earlier, not one of the 50 members had the 00z gfs solution at T168. Remembering that ECM ens members run at a pretty high resolution and, if the ens are consistent this evening, you have to wonder what on earth is going on.

[Zenarcher]

Review on the weather models this evening,

GFS

I've noticed for the past 2 runs within the 72 hour range it has slowly been moving towards the ECM and UKMO outputs. If the GFS is doing that within 72 hours imagine what its doing over 96 hours. Anyway the GFS sticks to its idea and keeps things pretty much the same but the 12z run is an improvement overall. Around Wednesday next week it shows high pressure building over the UK and in the Atlantic. Meanwhile we have a very deep pressure system over Iceland something no other models agree on because the ridge in the Atlantic isn't as far North. Because the GFS has this more North this low pressure deepens quickly. To me this shows the GFS is the only model that shows the ridge this high all other models (5 in total) show it further South. The GFS has been making mistakes and adjustments around this time over the past few weeks, I say lets hope the 18z moves it more South because it would agree more with the UKMO and ECM. If the GFS is right again our cold spell would be delayed until the end of January.

ECM

Incredible consistent runs from the ECM, for the 7th output in a row it seems highly confident on a change on the 20th of January. Some adjustments have been made up to 144 hours but this does not seem to stop a blocking occur on the 20th. After the 20th the ECM shows cold weather setting in a great run overall for cold lovers. So does the ECM have any support tonight? Last night it was with little support which made people worried but here we are 24 hours later with the same thing. It doesn't have full support but more than what we did yesterday with the GEM, JMA and NOGAPS showing something similar. I hear some people in this thread wondering how accurate the ECM is? This is just from my experience and tests in September to October this year I done a weather model experiment and guess who performed best overall? The ECM and it did perform higher than average at longer range. Remember last week it was the first model to pick up the cut off low to the West of the UK we have right now the UKMO picked it up later and GFS eventually after a few runs got the hang of it. To new comers this is just one of many reasons why the ECM is the big daddy model.

JMA

Supports the ECM the most than any other model this evening which is good news. At least its not going with the GFS.

GEM

It does support the ECM as well although it doesn't show a blocking it does show the ridging going down across the UK unlike the GFS which has it more North and rather flat.

NOGAPS

It also supports the ECM and also leads to a blocking as well another model supporting the ECM and not the GFS.

UKMO

Ok so we have support from some of the 'lesser' models but the UKMO is very important. Sadly it doesn't agree with the ECM nor does it agree with the GFS. However taking a closer look as to which one does it show something at least similar to it does show something more to the ECM rather than the flat GFS.

Tonight to Tuesday Summary: Settled over the UK for all parts during the weekend and getting much colder as well. On Sunday night and on Monday unsettled windy and possibly wet weather over Western and Northern parts elsewhere staying settled. On Tuesday becoming settled for most but unsettled in the North.

Wednesday to Friday Summary: Severe gales in the far Northern Scottish Isles and elsewhere mostly unsettled with only the far South of England seeing settled conditions. On Thursday it looks to turn colder mainly in the North and this should eventually work its way down South by Friday perhaps bringing wintry weather its a week away yet though.

Overall this evening the GFS still seems to be on its own with no other models fully backing it up. Most models tend to agree more with the ECM although the ECM does not have full support its looking better for it at the moment than the GFS.

REMINDERS - Don't forget there is a general model chat thread HERE and a chat room HERE.

[Bristawl Si]

Sorry Blast but your wrong.....The T168 shows promise...as usual these days from the ECM BUT this should be T144 or T120!!!!.....Come on you can see a flatter azores ridge as many can and I truely expect this to show more on the 00z....you continue to show T168 plus charts.......ridiculous really....I remember a time when we spoke of the 'reliable' timeframe.

Regards

Well the pros disagree with your view.

Ian F on our local Beeb news tonite said a little milder mid next week, but that won't last long - it will turn colder again and looking likely v cold by last week of January - that'll do me!

The 12Z ECM run doesn't seem that much different to me than the earlier ECM run - in fact, looks remarkably consistent.

[Yorkshiresnows]

Well I think most of us were expecting the Atlantic to barrel through on the ECM at around T144 and its a questionable evolution, certainly I would have ruled it out prior to 2008.

The stand-off goes on, the US guys place the greatest faith in the GFS 12z and not one of its members could be described as remotely like the ECM at T168, so maybe the ECM ensembles will show this run to be on the cold side. It's bizarre.

Really struggling with the 'American guys', thing. ........ over on WeatherBell they are putting more faith in the European ....... and have consistently.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Yorkshiresnows

[cooling climate]

Have to agree things do not look so promising now. The ECM 12z run probably showing a

48 hour cold snap at best. --- Cooling Climate

As i stated by 128 + i could see that this was going to be a belter. I am picking out this comment because to me CC you have not looked at the charts before you posted know wonder newbies are so confused and there is bickering going on in here most winters.

Lol yes I asure you I was looking at the charts and yes it looks like I jumped the gun a bit. Having said that I am very

surprised the way the run turned out. There is pretty good consensus between the ECM and UKMO at t144 and the

GFS is heading that way, so yes it looks like there will be some ridging north in the Atlantic (not as much as the ECM

was originally modeling) but whether it is enough to leave us in a cold and perhaps wintry pattern that the extended

ECM run is showing is still unsure. As N. Sussex rightly says we do not necessarilly need mega hights to the north for

a cold spell. As long as heights are higher to the north and lower to the south and south east of us then we have a

better than average chance of colder weather.

like you though I do hope that the ECM verifies.

[lorenzo]

Latest long look chart from NOAA just updated, looking pretty blocked!

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

[nick sussex]

NOAA maps are out, no change since yesterday, PV north of Hudson Bay, positive anomaly mid Atlantic, troughing over the UK:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

[Backtrack]

Can anyone tell me why the ECM doesn't do 3 hourly intervals like the GFS?

[Julian]

Sticking my head over the parapet for the first time in this thread so please be gentle.

I've noticed before that charts from previous years have been posted as a comparison to a suggested evolution, but nothing in this current setup.

Is part of the model programming based on historical data and so this could be why they are struggling with the current situation?

[phil nw.]

Anyone suggesting the cold charts from the ECM aren't getting closer are wrong.

http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?13-0

The ECM still shows trough disruption with energy ejecting SE. Last night this was at +168, now its +144.

Having said this until we get +144 resolved its futile predicting beyond this. The ECM continues to be the only model wanting wanting to send this energy SE.

Yes that`s the point Eye.

ECM is a cold evolution based on it`s earlier modelling of a sharper trough digging SE,which is the point i made earlier.

My only reservation with the ECM is the Arctic heights at 500hPa (yellows for the new comers)fade over our side of the Arctic further into the run.

Yes there`s still just enough to do the job but if that trend continued then the pattern would likely go the way of the GFS-ie,cool zonal.

[Zenarcher]

Can anyone tell me why the ECM doesn't do 3 hourly intervals like the GFS?

It does http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

At the side select ECMWF and use the scroll bar and shows the ECM output for 3 hours. However at longer range it doesn't do 3 hour gaps and on that site only goes to 180 hours.

[SMU]

This thread should be locked & scrapped for some of the nonsence posted today- people seem to willing the GFS on to make a point & will make up any nonsense to try & prove it right-

The ECM 500 MB picture for the last 3 days has traversed the timelines near enough 24 hour V 24 hour & now the 144 chart is as good as damn it the 168 chart & so on- the only grey are was around greenland ridging- which seems to have been reinforced tonight-

*IF* the ECM varifies over the GFS ( which obviously theres a chance it wont ) then me must remember this 'type' of scenario with +VE cross polar heights the ECM has handled it very well once into the 120 HR range-

The NCEP model deterministic statistics have showed that consistently the ECM is the best, & the GFS bottom 5 over the last 7 days- being beaten by the GEM, canadian & the UKMET-

& thats the 0z( the best one)- the performance & lack of data from the 18z & useless 06z have further tainted peoples opinions-

Tonight the JMA & NOGAPs are both in harmony with the ECM-

http://176.31.229.22...-180.png?13-178

http://www.meteociel...92-21.GIF?13-12 with theJMA setting up the mother of all easterlies for 216-

So If theres one bit we can take away from this is the GFS isnt the only model- so MANY posters on here live & die by it- when actually modelling has moved forward but the GFS hasnt ( that well)

Maybe just maybe it will catch up by the morning...

assuming everything being equal tomorrow eve then we can start talking about the 120 charts & where the cold might land-

Looking at whats being churned out by the ECM theres a 50/50 chance of a big snow event for the UK & some severe frosts under slack air-

Also with a Sheared Greeenland ridge to scandi the 60 N 10E flow will be very negative- so it appears that a swift return to mild weather is 'unlikely' - however you can never rule it out-

the ridge to greenland AS EVER will be the key to START it- however the 3/4 rossby wave pattern then looks to be slow & meridional - which suits us if we are under the flank of the cold high-

ROLL ON THE LONG ECM ENSEMBLES- the control has a bias of under cutting so expect some real mega cold surface temps from that & maybe some others- hoping to see the -20 scale used on there to day 15....

S

Edited January 13, 2012 by Steve Murr

[ChartViewer]

Well the pros disagree with your view.

Ian F on our local Beeb news tonite said a little milder mid next week, but that won't last long - it will turn colder again and looking likely v cold by last week of January - that'll do me!

The 12Z ECM run doesn't seem that much different to me than the earlier ECM run - in fact, looks remarkably consistent.

Well in 4 runs time well know I suspect.

GFS 18Z

GFS00Z

ECM00Z

UKMO00Z

Ill put my house on the GFS after seeing a ECM with that flatter Azores ridge and the GFS not going anywhere.....Its interesting times but I believe the GFS has got this one right.

Regards

Edited January 13, 2012 by ChartViewer

[Backtrack]

It does http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0

At the side select ECMWF and use the scroll bar and shows the ECM output for 3 hours. However at longer range it doesn't do 3 hour gaps and on that site only goes to 180 hours.

Oh, thank you very much!

Just wondering if that's something NW could implement?

[SMU]

NOAA maps are out, no change since yesterday, PV north of Hudson Bay, positive anomaly mid Atlantic, troughing over the UK:

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/610day.03.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

Copy & paste Copy & paste LOL

[Bristawl Si]

Well in 4 runs time well know I suspect.

GFS 18Z

GFS00Z

ECMF00Z

UKMO00Z

Ill put my house on the GFS after seeing a ECM with that flatter Azores ridge and the GFS not going anywhere.....Its interesting times but I believe the GFS has got this one right.

Regards

Weather chat amongst the Pros from Twitter over last hour:

"Yes EC looks tasty!" ....."If this comes off then there'll sure be a risk of decent snow across the UK"......."Cold again after 20th Jan..." and finally

"If this comes off most of N Europe and the UK would have caught a cold by Sunday Jan 22nd".

I think that just about sums up the Pros' thoughts right now.

ECM - top shelf

GFS - Bin

Regards

Edited January 13, 2012 by Bristle boy

[Froze were the Days]

Wasn't there a stand off between the GFS and ECM around the end of November 10 period with the reversal, GFS showing cold and ECM not, almost up to near a week before the arrival of the cold spell and I think the ECM eventually did a 'u-turn'. Infact the ECM was the poorest model for blocking then with UKMO and then GFS leading the way. Just food for thought.

I might have got the time wrong but there certainly has been a period when the ECM did an about turn after consistantly not backing down.

[nick sussex]

Copy & paste Copy & paste LOL

Yes I'm beginning to wonder whether the guys on holiday and has just set them for the week!

The ECM ensemble mean at 168hrs is solidly behind the operational run and I thought you'd like this at 192hrs!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=2

[Yorkshiresnows]

Well in 4 runs time well know I suspect.

GFS 18Z

GFS00Z

ECM00Z

UKMO00Z

Ill put my house on the GFS after seeing a ECM with that flatter Azores ridge and the GFS not going anywhere.....Its interesting times but I believe the GFS has got this one right.

Regards

Dude, you've every right to post your views, but if you are having trouble interpreting the charts, perhaps it would be sensible to pause and double check what you are posting ?

From what I've noted on Weatherbell and after viewing the GFS, EMS and JMS (like that modal), ........ I'm bemused by your thoughts that the GFS must be correct .....?

Y.S

[OldMetMan]

Once again, the GFS 12Z brushes aside any potential HP blocking, while the ECM is still giving us a deepening upper trough with cold air creeping down at us from the NE.

I am finding it hard to see the synoptic reasoning of the GFS, and to some extent the ECM, given where we are at the moment. In the next few days, we seem likely to get a disrupting upper trough to our west, the upper ridge right over us and LP running NE around a growing large LP over N Canada and Greenland. Meanwhile, LP drops SE into E Europe whilst HP continues to intensify over N Russia.

In this situation, you would expect the NE moving LP heading towards Iceland to strengthen the upper ridge allowing the Russian HP to absorb our HP and start to spread very cold air SW towards us. It's quite a common scenario in my experience.Yet from around 96H to 120H both the ECM and GFS collapse the upper ridge and start bringing LP back down over the UK again, whereas only a few days ago, the GFS was insistent on keeping HP east of the UK, feeding coldish easterlies at us.

As I mentioned earlier, this seems to have everything to do with the strength and location of the polar jet coming out of the US, which, if it continues as it has for many days now, would indeed look likely to collapse any block.

I keep referring to the Water Vapour imagery and the E Pacific is clearly now showing an amplifying trough whilst the jet across the central US cannot seem to decide whether to remain in a split stream state or merge. I still think that most of the energy will head further SE with the polar jet itself weakening, allowing LP to be maintained over N Canada and even SE to off the US east coast, whilst the downstream flow becomes increasingly meridional, favouring the "Omega" block situation with an amplifying upper trough over Europe and the UK..

I think perhaps the UKMet might give us a better idea of post-96hr development later today - it's anyone's guess really whether the GFS will still stick to its story for the 18Z run!.

[KTtom]

Having read through pages of posts on the ECM V GFS models, the one question which no-one seems to answer is IF the ECM is correct, and last year we were informed that this was the model the MET prefer to follow, then why does their mid and longer term outlooks not back up this model?

I'm desperate for ECM to be right as are most on here, but without the METO on side with all their 'extra' data then I am not at all confident.

[Met4Cast]

Having read through pages of posts on the ECM V GFS models, the one question which no-one seems to answer is IF the ECM is correct, and last year we were informed that this was the model the MET prefer to follow, then why does their mid and longer term outlooks not back up this model?

I'm desperate for ECM to be right as are most on here, but without the METO on side with all their 'extra' data then I am not at all confident.

The MO would be stupid to come out with a much colder, snowier outlook at this stage, the lesser models are beginning to come on board this evening which may lead to a cooler outlook in tomorrows update, however with the GFS sticking to it's guns for "less cold" then I don't think anyone in their right mind would say that's likely to happen for certain. The MO seem to be going down the middle path with their changeable outlook, ,mentioning both mild and cold which is a safe bet at this stage.

As for the models, I think confidence has grown for colder weather during the period now as the lesser models have trended towards the ECM, as has the UKMO slightly at +144, the thing that worries me at the moment is how bullish the GFS is being, despite how consistent the ECM and it's ensemble members have been.

[ChartViewer]

Weather chat amongst the Pros from Twitter over last hour:

"Yes EC looks tasty!" ....."If this comes off then there'll sure be a risk of decent snow across the UK"......."Cold again after 20th Jan..." and finally

"If this comes off most of N Europe and the UK would have caught a cold by Sunday Jan 22nd".

I think that just about sums up the Pros' thoughts right now.

ECM - top shelf

GFS - Bin

Regards

Ok hope those Twitters Pros are right...However some said today that GFS moved slightly towards ECM because a small lobe of the PV split.....I didnt really see that.....And to me the ECM T96/T144 saw a flatter azores ridge caused by more energy showing in the ECM jet...but im fed up with debating this....The proof will be in the next 4 runs...All the best.

regards