Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

[ukpaul]

192h, deeper uppers now pushing westwards out of Scandinavia.

[winter watcher]

192 + and it gets better and better

[Cal]

Bingo, quite a tantalising run here from the ECM, which model will be right?

[danm]

As you were at t192:

I really don't see any big climb down from the ECM. Minor differences to the 0z, but it's still sticking with the same theme that it has done for the last few days.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Because its T168 tonight should have actually beenT96/T144.........I see a flatter azores ridge on this run and expect to see it progressed and the ensembles may back this up later.

18z to stick to its guns from the GFS and show it to be the Premier model of choice unfortunately for coldies

Regards

12z 192 to be a very nice set up, better than the 00z. Sorry but this post CV is either inaccurate or posted to just cause reaction.......ridiculous really

BFTP

[PolarWarsaw]

The problem is, its at T168 and 192, we've seen cold repreated at that distance for numerous runs now but thats it, it seems to stop there. It is a nice run though, I just feel we need some forward progression. Im personally frustrated at talking about cold at +t144 now, things keep getting pushed back further and further. Im not meaning to be negative, because the run is good. But something in a nicer timezone would be great.

[kate1]

I'm very new to all this so please be patient... But from what I see so far this evening it seems to me that the GFS has backtracked more than the ECM?

[danm]

The problem is, its at T168 and 192, we've seen cold repreated at that distance for numerous runs now but thats it, it seems to stop there. It is a nice run though, I just feel we need some forward progression. Im personally frustrated at talking about cold at +t144 now, things keep getting pushed back further and further. Im not meaning to be negative, because the run is good. But something in a nicer timezone would be great.

It is sticking to the same time frame, re the onset of cold, as it has been for the last few days.

[AWD]

Shouldn't the progression of cold be moving closer, not further away though!

The T168 ECM chart is basically this mornings ( 0z ) T168 chart, shouldn't it have moved forward to T144 by now!

ECM doesn't want to bring it's eye candy into an ever closer reliable timeframe IMO!

[bluearmy]

far from being a downgrade, the ecm 12z is an upgrade with a southerly jet showing up to cut off heights around iceland. the 00z fi was not certain to prolong any cold. the ecm 12z at T192 looks to set a cold spell af at least a week. the differences are there. in the earlier stages, maybe the big two are trending a tad closer but ecm is far more consistent in dropping the trough. those who are posting anything different are going to be knocked over by the train !!

and by the way T168 less 12 is T156. there is no change in the timescale. tomorrow morning, the ecm will show the trough dropping in at t144.

Edited January 13, 2012 by bluearmy

[SxK]

Cold not moving further away. It was at t192 last night now t168.

[ukpaul]

Much of the UK under -8 uppers by 216h, the rest on nothing higher than -6. Slack winds maybe but pressure system moving South East towards Iberia.

Edited January 13, 2012 by ukpaul

[ChartViewer]

12z 192 to be a very nice set up, better than the 00z. Sorry but this post CV is either inaccurate or posted to just cause reaction.......ridiculous really

BFTP

Sorry Blast but your wrong.....The T168 shows promise...as usual these days from the ECM BUT this should be T144 or T120!!!!.....Come on you can see a flatter azores ridge as many can and I truely expect this to show more on the 00z....you continue to show T168 plus charts.......ridiculous really....I remember a time when we spoke of the 'reliable' timeframe.

Regards

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Shouldn't the progression of cold be moving closer, not further away though!

The T168 ECM chart is basically this mornings ( 0z ) T168 chart, shouldn't it have moved forward to T144 by now!

ECM doesn't want to bring it's eye candy into an ever closer reliable timeframe IMO!

No because there is only 12 hours difference between midnight and midday, I'm sure you know that already though, still seems on track to me.

[SnowObsessor90]

So can someone put this in simple terms for me, is this a good run or not?

[Jayces]

Shouldn't the progression of cold be moving closer, not further away though!

The T168 ECM chart is basically this mornings ( 0z ) T168 chart, shouldn't it have moved forward to T144 by now!

ECM doesn't want to bring it's eye candy into an ever closer reliable timeframe IMO!

Get used to this, what happens is that changes earlier in the run are either quicker / slower or totally different which have knock on affects further down the line.

[Geordiesnow]

Because its T168 tonight should have actually beenT96/T144.........I see a flatter azores ridge on this run and expect to see it progressed and the ensembles may back this up later.

18z to stick to its guns from the GFS and show it to be the Premier model of choice unfortunately for coldies

Regards

What!? Your maths is totally out there, theres a 12 hours difference between the runs so this morning's 168 hour chart would be appearing at 156 hours and the ECM don't have any charts for that timeframe? And the 120 hours would be at 108 hours - again no charts for that timeframe, sometimes comparing the 12Z and 00Z runs can be a tad misleading.

I have to admit, I did had a heart in mouth moment when looking at the 120 hours chart so the ECM persistance of showing a ridge still may be wrong but on face value its a good run, cold air coming into Scotland by 120 hours via a WNW-NW'ly which the ECM has shown for quite a while now.

I'm also not sure about the GFS love-in either, remember it recently shown a Northerly for a while whilst the ECM/UKMO were not having it and it eventually backed down, that said the GFS output could be right on this one but what will you say if the 18Z did show an amplified ridge? For me, its the UKMO I'm most concerned about, one of the best models when dealing with cold set ups and sometimes to our frustration never shows a cold set up and been proven right.

One thing the ECM does change as somebody already menturned is the lower heights around the Svalbard isles, on this run, it appears it did not make a huge amount of difference but this is the only area that the ECM even looks anything like the GFS run!

[sn0wman]

Sorry Blast but your wrong.....The T168 shows promise...as usual these days from the ECM BUT this should be T144 or T120!!!!.....Come on you can see a flatter azores ridge as many can and I truely expect this to show more on the 00z....you continue to show T168 plus charts.......ridiculous really....I remember a time

when we spoke of the 'reliable' timeframe.

Regards

It has been moving forward though. It shouldn't be at 120 hours, it's only been 12 hours since the last run!

Edited January 13, 2012 by sn0wman

[winter watcher]

Anonymous21-

So can someone put this in simple terms for me, is this a good run or not?

Hell yes full of cold and potential for it when it sets up to get better and better. Hope that helps.

[SxK]

CV the promise as you call it was at t240 a few days ago and is gradually coming into the reliable. Ecm has maintained the trend GFS is moving closer with this evenings runs.

[Paul White.]

All I know is that the GFS or ECM is going to have to climb down (on local detail) But reading this thread for the last hour you would think that Members have staked there reputations on the outcome. (Who cares) Anyway on the ECm run there is hardly any detail change from its earlier run it does look cold with a chance of snow next Friday somwhere within the UK. Vague I know but its seven days away.

[ITSY]

ECM insanely good again - if by the morning it hasn't started to move the cold at 168 to 144 then i'll be more sceptical though. Let's see if pub run offers uf a change - don't forget that less than this time last week GFS op was offering stonking easterlies, so all to play for still.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I would say the ECMWF 12Z is better than 00Z, trouble is no greeny high, deep cold at 216 ice days, then snow to the SW at 240, but miles in FI

Edited January 13, 2012 by snow? norfolk n chance

[bluearmy]

Sorry Blast but your wrong.....The T168 shows promise...as usual these days from the ECM BUT this should be T144 or T120!!!!.....

Regards

look through the archives CV. you are completely wrong on the timescale. gfs could be right but to make statements like this is coming close to trolling.

[TEITS]

Sorry Blast but your wrong.....The T168 shows promise...as usual these days from the ECM BUT this should be T144 or T120!!!!.....Come on you can see a flatter azores ridge as many can and I truely expect this to show more on the 00z....you continue to show T168 plus charts.......ridiculous really....I remember a time when we spoke of the 'reliable' timeframe.

Regards

Anyone suggesting the cold charts from the ECM aren't getting closer are wrong.

The ECM still shows trough disruption with energy ejecting SE. Last night this was at +168, now its +144.

Having said this until we get +144 resolved its futile predicting beyond this. The ECM continues to be the only model wanting wanting to send this energy SE.