Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

[Paul]

There's not really any hiding from it, the ecm ensembles do make a shift toward the GFS theme, but not a huge one at this point. If it continues then yes, we could be starting to head more toward a milder outcome, but it could just as easily go back the other way on the next run.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Matt Hugo over on twitter saying ecm ensembles showing signs of a switch to the gfs solution.

18Z continues with its zonal solution.

IM seriously starting ot think GFS is going to trump ECM on this one.

[danm]

18z out to t132 looks even more flat than the 12z.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ensembles are as good as model runs and as just as fickle...lets see where T150+ takes us, further potential subtle changes. I think a more dig SE could follow

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ChartViewer]

There's not really any hiding from it, the ecm ensembles do make a shift toward the GFS theme, but not a huge one at this point. If it continues then yes, we could be starting to head toward a milder outcome, but it could just as easily go back the other way on the next run.

Look at the GFS T120 Paul....the azores ridge is battered South....Can only mean zonality .....GFS staying strong....

Regards

Matt Hugo over on twitter saying ecm ensembles showing signs of a switch to the gfs solution.

18Z continues with its zonal solution.

IM seriously starting ot think GFS is going to trump ECM on this one.

It has in the reliable sorry x

[on the coast]

18z seems alot flatter. Still no way near the ECM.

[Geordiesnow]

Ensembles are as good as model runs and as just as fickle

BFTP

You sure about that? Looks marginally flatter too me and well and truely sticking with its guns of not having any fun and games for cold lovers for about the 10th* run in a row? Good consistancy.

* - slightly over-exagerated figure but stating that the GFS is showing consistancy in its output and must not be ruled out at all, especially as the UKMO is not a million miles off what the GFS is showing either from what I can see.

Edit: I see you edited your post Blast but I was responding to the fact that you said the 18Z looked more amplified which kinda confused me as it looks rather flat too me.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Geordiesnow

[Paul]

Look at the GFS T120 Paul....the azores ridge is battered South....Can only mean zonality .....GFS staying strong....

Regards

As it happens there's barely any difference at this stage to the 12z . (18z on the left)

[ukpaul]

For next Friday GFS claims about 7 degrees 2m temperature next Friday for De Bilt, ECM ensembles have barely a single ensemble member showing that.

The differences in the pack of ensembles is even more perplexing than the difference in operationals.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

As it happens there's barely any difference at this stage to the 12z . (18z on the left)

And so the waiting game goes on... One of these models surely has to put their hand up and admit they have got the pattern wrong. I really hope its the GFS but this seems to keep sticking to its guns just like the ECM has all week.

[danm]

Funnily enough, by t180 the 18z is marginally better than the 12z as the azores high shifts further westwards, wheras it was still lodged across southern England on the 12z:

18z:

12z:

But that is straw clutching...

Edited January 13, 2012 by danm

[Mark Bayley]

You sure about that? Looks marginally flatter too me and well and truely sticking with its guns of not having any fun and games for cold lovers for about the 10th* run in a row? Good consistancy.

* - slightly over-exagerated figure but stating that the GFS is showing consistancy in its output and must not be ruled out at all, especially as the UKMO is not a million miles off what the GFS is showing either from what I can see.

Yes, the GFS remains consistent. Looking at all the models there doesn't the seem that much support for the ECM. The GFS, its ensembles, the GEM all go against it. Its difficult to see the where the UKMO would go past T144, although it is better than the GFS. The NAEFS also don't support the ECM.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=168&mode=0&map=

My gut feeling is the ECM could be wrong on this, and that it will move towards the GFS and others tomorrow. I

[Southender]

So for those of us viewing on a phone, the summary this eve is, ECM Ens have backtracked a touch and the GFS is not budging?

[NickR]

So for those of us viewing on a phone, the summary this eve is, ECM Ens have backtracked a touch and the GFS is not budging?

Pretty much,

Be interesting to see what Steve M makes of it.

[danm]

18z turns out to be flatter and less amplified than the 12z by FI (t200+).

So 18z stays solid. The uncertainty continues...

The ECM does have its support from some of the smaller models this evening, and as other have said the UKMO somewhat backs it. As long as this GFS is showing such a different evolution, we aren't going to have any degree of certainty.

[kold weather]

ECM ensemble means do look a little shorter in length of cold spell, but the GFS has also moved towards the ECM solution, I mean 2-4 runs ago there was NO ridging at all from the Azores, now the 12z and the 18z GFS do show some.

Seems like we are heading towards a middle ground solution, which probably makes sense...

[shedhead]

Yes, the mix in ensembles that was talking about. The 18z is not one to trust implicitly, but it remains solidly consistent with the GFS output all day. Surely tomorrow will see the ECM backtrack.

Starting to look more likely than not now I fear, once again despite all the odds GFS looks like proving to be a trend setter as well as a cold weather party pooper, much as I've feared for the last couple of

days. The main clue again probably being in the consistancy it has shown, day to day and even run to run, in fact you do get the impression the only time GFS is going to be wrong this Winter is when it

eventually goes for a solid cold evolution inside T+180hrs.

[ukpaul]

Checking the last three GFS runs, it is very clear that each run has moved towards the ECM position - as it seems the only way to stop misinformation is posting the charts here's a few!

6z

12z - PV a bit west.

18z - Now a bit south (it's a bit like The Golden Shot, for our younger members don't ask.....)

Edited January 13, 2012 by ukpaul

[BARRY]

GFs seems to have lost the plot, At 192t 12z and 18z don't show much difference.

[January Snowstorm]

My heart says ECM but my moneys on the gfs

Too much consistency from the gfs really, I mean every single run shows the same thing

Also worth remembering that the so called change was initially modelled for this Sun (15th)

I'm still hopeful for Feb though

[on the coast]

To be fair to the GFS it seems consistent in FI to a cold outcome.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Are we FINALLY going to see an end to that semmingly neverending trail of systems moving off the Eastern seaboard on 18z FI?

Starting look more amplified by 240h.

Better late than never i say.

[danm]

My heart says ECM but my moneys on the gfs

Too much consistency from the gfs really, I mean every single run shows the same thing

Also worth remembering that the so called change was initially modelled for this Sun (15th)

I'm still hopeful for Feb though

The same can be said about the ECM and it's consistency over the last several days.

[bluearmy]

this thread is becoming more about stubborn posting than rational assessment. there is no reason why either model will 'back down' tomorrow. any post stating this will or that will happen is just bull. no one knows - thats why exeter sat on the fence this morning. having viewed the ecm ens, i'm less bullish about the ecm solution post T192. however, i am pretty convinced it is close to correct prior to that. but not certain. thats the point. those posts saying something will definitely happen are getting short shrift because we all know that you dont know for sure. no one does. show some magnanimity and you will get a better response. its possibly becoming the most interesting spell of model watchng i can remember

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The impression I am getting from the comments on here tonight is that people are almost refussing to accept the ECM output, even though it has consistently shown a similar pattern for nearly a week now. The law of averages for our part of the world would suggest a more unsettled flow from the Atlantic, which funnily enough is what the GFS gives us on nearly every run. My advice at the minute is to wait until this time tomorrow before giving up on the ECM (which by the way is the more reliable model upto mid range).