Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

[ChartViewer]

My heart says ECM but my moneys on the gfs

Too much consistency from the gfs really, I mean every single run shows the same thing

Also worth remembering that the so called change was initially modelled for this Sun (15th)

I'm still hopeful for Feb though

Spot on JS the consistancy from the GFS has shown and im sure people will learn from that......Especially as this is the American model for it to smash the Euro model is quite surprising.....if that turns out to be the case.

Regards

[mountain shadow]

Starting to look more likely than not now I fear, once again despite all the odds GFS looks like proving to be a trend setter as well as a cold weather party pooper, much as I've feared for the last couple of

days. The main clue again probably being in the consistancy it has shown, day to day and even run to run, in fact you do get the impression the only time GFS is going to be wrong this Winter is when it

eventually goes for a solid cold evolution inside T+180hrs.

Shedhead, the ECM has been MORE consistent with its sticking with the amplification than the GFS. It is the best model, GFS is third best. Logic disctates that the ECM has a higher probability of being correct.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lets wait until something gives way, neither have yet...and lets see what UKMO does

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Yes that is fair, the GFS maintains it's zonal outlook and some of the ECM ensemble members are going that way.

Which to be honest Ian is not a suprise really,for all the ECM ensembles to show a similar pattern would be something special at 6 days out. Its bound to show other outcomes if you ask me,

Edited January 13, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[ukpaul]

Anyone know where I can see the ECM 'postage stamps' as some people appear to be commenting on them?

One thing that will be an issue for ECM later on is the pressure system that appears around Iberia, I presume some members push that further north, which is why the uppers average is less cold by the Monday, being where it is and this far out that's going to be a pretty difficult one to get any sort of handle on for a while.

[PolarWarsaw]

As much as im praying the ECM comes off, the longer the GFS remains as consistent as it has been today and for most of yesterday the more I suspect the ECM will backtrack. Infact after tonight, id say things have fallen slightly in favour of the GFS and fully expect to wake up tommorow with a backtrack and some poor runs. One things for sure, im more confident of an ECM backtrack than the GFS coming around at this stage.

Just 2 observations

- If the GFS backtracks to the ECM solution it loses even more credit than it already has

- But if the ECM backtracks to the GFS it takes alot of the reputation it has built over the last couple of years away for me.

- Should the ECM backtrack, we have examples of both of our 'big' models flip, flopping and being drastically in-consistent at medium ranges, which doesn't exactly bode well with the faith of this country's models does it?

I'l be poking my head in this threat tommorow morning with only one eye open..

GFS 10% ahead tonight (sadly) for my money tonight....

[NickR]

Spot on JS the consistancy from the GFS has shown and im sure people will learn from that......Especially as this is the American model for it to smash the Euro model is quite surprising.....if that turns out to be the case.

Regards

But the ECM has also shown incredible consistEncy.

Edited January 13, 2012 by NickR

[Zakos]

Yes, the mix in ensembles that was talking about. The 18z is not one to trust implicitly, but it remains solidly consistent with the GFS output all day. Surely tomorrow will see the ECM backtrack.

. This defies logic because the ECM has been consitent in is ouput aswell, infact more so than the GFS... So by your own theory the GFS should bactrack...

[mulzy]

As stated earlier, the ECM ensemble mean at 168 is good

http://www.wetterzen...s/Reem1681.html

There may be more variation now at this timeframe now, but the general pattern is still good from the ECM and its ensembles. (and they have been rock solid the last 2-3 days)

Edited January 13, 2012 by mulzy

[David-kig]

after looking at gfs output and ecm. maybe a middle ground option is the way forward??

[Cloud 10]

Yes, the GFS remains consistent. Looking at all the models there doesn't the seem that much support for the ECM. The GFS, its ensembles, the GEM all go against it. Its difficult to see the where the UKMO would go past T144, although it is better than the GFS. The NAEFS also don't support the ECM.

http://www.meteociel...=168&mode=0=

My gut feeling is the ECM could be wrong on this, and that it will move towards the GFS and others tomorrow. I

The GEM actually supports the ECM!,as does the mighty JMA. :winky:

ECM> GEM>

JMA>

The GFS still having none of it though.

Fascinated to see tomorrow's runs!

[Paul]

Logic and this thread don't always mix, so those hoping for it are probably more likely to get the beast from the east arriving tomorrow.

All we can ask though is that we stick to the models, and maybe heed the post above about stubborn posting. People so entrenched in their view that they can't accept that there may be a better way just tend to wreck discussions, so maybe the opening of eyes (on both sides of the extreme) would be better for all concerned.

[nick sussex]

The ECM 12hrs ensemble maps are here for those wanting to see how much support the GFS has:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

GFS 18hrs run at 162hrs:

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

The key to look at is placement of high and troughing, if this is classed as a great switch to the GFS from the ECM ensembles then obviously I need to get some new glasses.

At best 8 members out of 50 give it some support in terms of ridging into central/southern Europe. Regardless of what the extended ensembles show we're trying to get agreement within 168hrs.

Hopefully we'll get a resolution to this in the morning!

Edited January 13, 2012 by nick sussex

[marksp]

Spot on JS the consistancy from the GFS has shown and im sure people will learn from that......Especially as this is the American model for it to smash the Euro model is quite surprising.....if that turns out to be the case.

Regards

yes well spotted for consistency, consistenly placed 4th in the verification stas.

[Downburst]

How do people come to a definative conclusion from one model run of 4 in a day? I think people are looking for reassurance, reverse physcology and all that, want to hear it will be all right.

We know for fact ECM is more reliable, we could not have expected the mid term solution on the 18z to be totally different to the 12z since the likley ECM offered solution is so finally balanced. I mean any reasonable person would agree the best course is to watch the ECM over the next couple of days and look for a change or not there, and ignore the GFS. Have a long think about why that would make sense and you can relax as the time comes nearer.

[bluearmy]

i keep reading how consistent the gfs is with its ensembles.

shall we look at the gfs 12z suite at T168

op/ens mean/spread

now tell me how far away the mean is from ecm at T168 if you consider the spread is likely to encompass lower heights into the uk and higher heights into the mid atlantic?

Edited January 13, 2012 by Paul
Just no need for those comments

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sorry but those viewing the models need a reality check if you still think the ECM is the model....Its clear tonight the GFS has nailed this scenario and Im sure some TWITTER PROS may have to eat humble pie soon....I fully expect the GFS 00Z to show an even flatter pattern with the ECM 00Z on board.....

Regards

The ECM is, statistically, the most accurate model and it was the first to backtrack on the first attempted easterly while the GFS continued to show signs of hope for it. Sometimes one model is best, other times another, and really it's more about looking at the background signals and using all available model guidance before making an informed decision. No model run will ever verify 100%, so it will always come down to a composite of models to some degree, and I still have to say that the cpc heights anomaly has been more consistent frankly than the GFS over the last 3 days http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

As for the ensembles, I believe Nick Sussex posted the postage stamps of them earlier and commented that the slightly poorer looking mean was due to a divergence between two different solutions, and having looked at them myself not many of the runs looked much like the GFS at that range. The GFS 12Z and 18Z look different to the earlier GFS runs with the Azores High further south and the ECM has shifted around a little bit too but both have been pretty consistent.

My own two bits here - some kind of north/northwesterly solution with a mid Atlantic ridge before an eventualy shift towards a more easterly wind vector before the month ends.

[Jason M]

Erm, before people start rushing to conclusions why dont we see what the ensembles throw out.

My guess is neither model is correct. Its been a nut house in here tonight and I can't believe people are arguing over charts 10 days away.

To me the ECM solution is plausable but the best stuff is still well over the hill as far as i'm concerned. Its interesting, but too far out to be overly excited about.

GFS as we all know tends to overplay zonality and pumps up lows big time, so we cant trust that either completely, given were looking out to days 7-10!.

Personally, as i've said for several weeks its all a bit 88/89 to me. Unless we get rid of this bleedin Azures high we have no chance! The PV is the cause (probably) and the Azures high is the effect. I think as we go into Feb the cause will be dealt with but it doesnt always follow in life that the effect disappears.

Jason

[ukpaul]

The ECM 12hrs ensemble maps are here for those wanting to see how much support the GFS has:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

GFS 18hrs run at 162hrs:

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

The key to look at is placement of high and troughing, if this is classed as a great switch to the GFS from the ECM ensembles then obviously I need to get some new glasses.

At best 8 members out of 50 give it some support in terms of ridging into central/southern Europe. Regardless of what the extended ensembles show we're trying to get agreement within 168hrs.

Hopefully we'll get a resolution to this in the morning!

Thanks - op and control in perfect harmony, that's what I wanted to check (for ECM that is)

Edited January 13, 2012 by ukpaul

[Jayces]

This thread would seem to be more about people forcing their opinions of what their model of choice shows rather then discussing the range of model forecasts on offer.

Looking at all of them there are a number of options on the table for next weekend from a cold and possibly snowy offer from the ECM to a milder drier solution from the GFS and the UKMO somewhere in between.

Clearly one of them is right but we don't know which one and won't know until closer to the time.

Each one is showing something that is possible so we will just have to wait and see.

[Downburst]

One interesting thing is that Wednesday is going to be very mild followed very quickly by a turn around to very heavy frost Thursday night, Friday night. About a 16 C swing in night time temperature in 2 days in Ireland.

So all the flowers we have up here that should have waited for March will get a slap on the face.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

IS the FAX chart out yet guys that might give us a good idea of the Exeter view- 96/120h-

[mulzy]

short term London ensembles suggest op (and control) among the mildest runs 168-192hrs

http://www.meteociel...1&ville=Londres

Edited January 13, 2012 by mulzy

[Paul]

IS the FAX chart out yet guys that might give us a good idea of the Exeter view- 96/120h-

There's a big yellow bar beneath the first post on every page, why not click the link in that to the fax and have a look?!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&ech=162

Postage stamps from the pub run ensembles. Compare to the 168 ECM http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?13-0

Most are, surprisingly enough, somewhere in between the ECM and GFS, with northwesterly and northerly flows turning up in a lot of runs.

And the 120 hour fax http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012011312/UW120-21.GIF?13-17 Similar?

Edited January 13, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm