Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2

[dixonoid]

GEM 144HRS

UKMO 144HRS

NOGAPS 144HRS

ECM 144HRS

GFS 144HRS

Looking at the above models, GFS seems to be the only one not showing some sort of northerly flow at this time! But the ECM still showing a colder flow on Saturday, but seems to have moved towards the GFS, but is somewhere inbetween the UKMO and the GFS. But at this moment at 144hrs, there looks like there is more support for some sort of northerly than not! But a long way out at the moment, when it gets a lot nearer I will be happy, would be nice to see better agreement between the models, would make this thread easier to follow.

Edited January 15, 2012 by dixonoid

[cooling climate]

I know most posters do not put a lot of stock into the long range CPC predictions and to be honest neither do

I, however they are now showing a much more blocked pattern to the north and northwest for February and

March as you can see below.

[Frosty.]

Hard to argue with your assessment Frosty

Thanks shedhead,

There is no point sugar coating a poor run, the 6z yesterday was stellar compared to this with a nw/se tilted jet and massive reload potential, this run sends us back to almost where we were at christmas with a mild outlook for the south at least.

[bluearmy]

please dont pay so much attention to gfs op runs post T192. the resolution change between T192 and beyond is so large that the model simply cannot be expected to give an accurate picture out to 2 weeks. cloud 10 has illustrated well the issue that the gfs ops had with this pattern. they failed to dig the trough to our se, despite all the ens guidance indicating that this was to be the outcome. ecm was at the opposite end of the spectrum and dug the trough too far into our neck of the woods. if you look at where the trough is likely to end up, then ecm is closer. however, gfs appears to have the upstream pattern better (at the moment) in that there seems little chance of an upper ridge turning the flow ne behind the trough and holding up the jet. given where we sit on the edge of the atlantic, small variances in the modelling will have a marked difference to our surface conditions.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=london

the op ecm is a few degrees higher than the mean pretty well throughout its run. quite frankly, i'm surprised how cool this looks out to two weeks with plenty of clustered cold runs remianing. nice to see plenty of amplification in the gefs 06z. the parallel are eagerly awaited after the 00z suite. (incidentally, once the parallel go live, i imagine the gefs runs will be much slower coming out due to the higher resolution of the members compared to the current gefs).

[ian34]

please dont pay so much attention to gfs op runs post T192. the resolution change between T192 and beyond is so large that the model simply cannot be expected to give an accurate picture out to 2 weeks. cloud 10 has illustrated well the issue that the gfs ops had with this pattern. they failed to dig the trough to our se, despite all the ens guidance indicating that this was to be the outcome. ecm was at the opposite end of the spectrum and dug the trough too far into our neck of the woods. if you look at where the trough is likely to end up, then ecm is closer. however, gfs appears to have the upstream pattern better (at the moment) in that there seems little chance of an upper ridge turning the flow ne behind the trough and holding up the jet. given where we sit on the edge of the atlantic, small variances in the modelling will have a marked difference to our surface conditions.

http://www.weatherca...html?eps=london

the op ecm is a few degrees higher than the mean pretty well throughout its run. quite frankly, i'm surprised how cool this looks out to two weeks with plenty of clustered cold runs remianing. nice to see plenty of amplification in the gefs 06z. the parallel are eagerly awaited after the 00z suite. (incidentally, once the parallel go live, i imagine the gefs runs will be much slower coming out due to the higher resolution of the members compared to the current gefs).

any members from n/west england could take heart from the bbc forecast on country tracks they have just commited to a north westerley flow from thursday with deep cold and snow moving down from the north

[kold weather]

There is no point sugar coating a poor run, the 6z yesterday was stellar compared to this with a nw/se tilted jet and massive reload potential, this run sends us back to almost where we were at christmas with a mild outlook for the south at least.

To be fair the 06z run is not that great compared to some of the ensembles. The control run actually develops a very interesting set-up down the line.

[shedhead]

Thanks shedhead,

There is no point sugar coating a poor run, the 6z yesterday was stellar compared to this with a nw/se tilted jet and massive reload potential, this run sends us back to almost where we were at christmas with a mild outlook for the south at least.

To be fair Frosty you have rather edited what I actually said and turned it into the kind of soundbite Alistair Campbell would have been proud of...

[feb1991blizzard]

I know most posters do not put a lot of stock into the long range CPC predictions and to be honest neither do

I, however they are now showing a much more blocked pattern to the north and northwest for February and

March as you can see below.

Although my confidence in this winter has taken a big hit lately, you cannot discount those charts, months and months out they are not much use but a month out, they are surely of some relevance, i notice even with the skill mask, the heights chart shows strong + anomolies to the West and some sort of + anomolies into GL.

[Harsh Climate]

The ECM has performed woefully for me and has definatly backed down after the last few days! Showing phantom easterlies and what not <_<

I'm not praising the GFS here as it's been all over the place of late, but atleast It didn't get dragged down that road!

It's been said many times before, but even more so now regarding any notable blocking and deep cold, The AO and AO must head neutral as other wise the freight train that is the atlantic Jet is just allways too strong.

Edited January 15, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Please - model output dicsussion. People don't want to log into this thread to see people discussing the models' performance. There are other places to discuss that, so please just take that little bit of effort and post in the right thread.

[Frosty.]

To be fair Frosty you have rather edited what I actually said and turned it into the kind of soundbite Alistair Campbell would have been proud of...

LOL that's where the similarity ends, as kold mentioned, some more interesting ensembles and a much better control run. I really hope the models are just having a wobble and that we do have a proper cold spell very soon.

[IDO]

Just seen Countryfile weather. I assume they use the up to date UKMO run? They have the PM excursion on Friday; that is the same as the GFS, rather than the ECM (Sat). If that is the case I suspect the 12z from UKMO will reflect a less amplified upstream pattern, again hedging back to the GFS.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120115;time=06;ext=123;file=h500slp;sess=b92929e80e1d3dc5ae0a68e1496e5a37;

The mist is clearing.

[feb1991blizzard]

The ECM has performed woefully for me and has definatly backed down after the last few days! Showing phantom easterlies and what not <_<

I'm not praising the GFS here as it's been all over the place of late, but atleast It didn't get dragged down that road!

It's been said many times before but even more so tregarding any notable blocking and deep cold, The AO and AO must head neutral as other wise the freight train that is the atlantic Jet is allways too strong.

I agree, i think the ECM seems to get an easy ride on here when it performs badly an can be just as bad as the GFS at bringing in stunning winter synoptics in FI and then backtracking.

[snowmadchrisuk]

In my eyes the ECM has simply gone with one of its milder ensemble members . While the Arctic High remains , the P/V losing energy all the time , a significant Cold outbreak can occur very quickly indeed . A couple of tweeks on the GFS at +120 could lead to a very cold setup a few days later . If the trough to the east digs a little further south and the wedge of higher pressure linked to the Arctic extends a little more influence you could quite quickly end up with a link up with Scandi . Obviously all if's and but's but why some ensemble members still show this it is still an option with FI at a very short time frame . Jet is also still fairly favorable at +120 not that strong and heading SE .

Edit , Adding a chart as an example .

Edited January 15, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[swilliam]

It's a shame that all the best posters on here who have made a good case for the uk to undergo a pattern change are possibly going to have the rug pulled from under them, the models this morning are back to where they have been for the last 6 weeks minus that rather colder zonal spell during mid december, relative riches compared to what the models are currently indicating for the next few weeks, still it could just be a model wobble on a large scale as I assume the background signals are still the same.

No-one is having the rug pulled from under their feet. I do not understand why you say that there has not been a pattern change (which means a change on the overall pattern - not just in our locality). This is where we were at the end of Dec - no blocking just a large deep intact vortex and a flat pattern round the whole of the NH

.

We are now here with extensive NH blocking - unfortunately for us though is is mostly on the other side of the globe but you can see our current block and the large one that has developed over NW Russia.

Forecast a week ahead and still large amounts of blocking in the NH - again not very favourable for us.

Remember a pattern change does not necessarily mean lots of cold and snow - just better chances for this which what we currently have.

[carinthian]

Looking through the output this morning it seems to me that were really no further forward than at this time last week. ECM has steadily downgraded next weekends cold spell, to a cold snap and is now moving towards a situation where were looking at a couple of rather cold days and nothing more.

The one feature that dominates all the output is the Azures high, which despite changes at a Global level isn't showing any signs of going anywhere. Same rule applies now as at any other time during this Autumn and Winter (and last Jan - Feb) which is high pressureto our south = no snow of note. Whilst we seecharts like the one below accross the models, nothing much is going to change.

To avoid upsetting anyone i'll show a chart from GEM. This is one of the better ones this morning as well!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

24 hours later leads to this

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

With that Azures high in position there is only ever going to be one outcome ie a renewed push from the west. Even with things changing globally its perfectly possible that the Azures high will stay in situ regardless.

Still time for me to be proved wrong of course and others no doubt have different views but i can see no evidence whatsoever of any material change to the status quo at this point. I've felt for some time that were headed for winter that will sit firmly in the 'very mild' category and based on our current starting position Feb could really be quite exceptional for all the wrong reasons.

No doubt by this afternoon the next ice age will be showing at 120 hours

Jason

Thats a good assessment Jason. Very much of more of the same . Much of Lowland Western Europe and Southern Scandinavia enduring a snowless winter. We in Austrian just of the outer edge of the cold zone, enjoying plenty of sunshine and snow flurries with the heavier snowfall reserved to the higher mountains.

C

[Harsh Climate]

I agree, i think the ECM seems to get an easy ride on here when it performs badly an can be just as bad as the GFS at bringing in stunning winter synoptics in FI and then backtracking.

Yes, for me it's reputation has been tarnished and I will struggle to take it as seriously in the future. A truly awful performance.

People may say it's too early to come to that conclusion but this phantom easterly/low pressure diving south east with blocking to the north of it should be in the 144h range now, through clear cross model agreement, its almost certainly not going to happen! And even if we do get an easterly in 2 weeks time that still wouldn't cut the mustard as thats an entirely new event/set of circumstances.

[keithlucky]

Thanks shedhead,

There is no point sugar coating a poor run, the 6z yesterday was stellar compared to this with a nw/se tilted jet and massive reload potential, this run sends us back to almost where we were at christmas with a mild outlook for the south at least.

Not according to the met office cold and snow showers pushing down from the N West Friday Saturday with good covering of snow in West UK. Edited January 15, 2012 by keithlucky

[chionomaniac]

If we compare what the 06z gfs and the 00z ecm were predicting for the 19th of Jan on their

runs from 3 days ago compared with their runs from this morning,it seems to me that its the

gfs which has moved the most as it now has the troughing digging south-east.

gfs 3 days ago> now>

ecm 3 days ago> now>

Yes, for me it's reputation has been tarnished and I will struggle to take it as seriously in the future. A truly awful performance.

I think before you cast aspersions you should look at the overall picture as shown by Cloud 10. I think that it is fair to say that the ECM hasn't performed quite as badly as you think for a set of circumstances that has not even occurred yet.

And Please let's get back to the future!

[bluearmy]

to digress from analysing current op runs (now you would never get gfs ops forecasting run after run of easterlies would you? - wow we have short memories !!). just to look at the performance of ecm and naefs means over the past 10 days

naefs 10 days ago / ecm ens 10 days ago / reality

pretty good agreement at the outset so not too much to analyse. of course they both failed to pick our ridge though ecm across the atlantic is slightly amplified whereas nefas is as flat as a pancake. naefs more amplified around the aleutain and siberian ridges which has turned out to be correct. also the troughing into alaska better represented on naefs. looking 10 days ahead and i think we will get a winner as there are rather more subtle differences to verify, though the overall pattern looks pretty set.

naefs / ecm on the 24th from yesterdays 12z

[phil nw.]

There seems to be a lot of mental gymnastics over the outputs this morning.

It looks pretty straightforward to me.

Whichever model you view out to T144 tells me after a milder couple of days around midweek,we then pick up a somewhat colder flow from the North West as low pressure moves across the north towards Scandinavia.

Chances of anything colder than slightly below average is very much restricted by those midlatitude heights over the near Atlantic and the tendency for the energy off the Canadian vortex to extend east towards Greenland.

Notice the very flat shaping to the troughing on the Eastern side of N.A.

Looking at the mean output for days 8-10

shows a fairly flat zonal pattern with any blocking around mid-latitudes.As ever those still lower heights are lurking to the north west,but maybe somewhat less prominent.

Finally a look at the latest ens. graphs.

Regardless of which output we look at there`s nothing more than at best cool zonal conditions on offer beyond midweek untill around day 10.

There may be background changes still to feed through but that`s not yet showing on the current 500hPa output.

I like cold,snowy weather as much as anyone,but i call it as i see it.

[feb1991blizzard]

Not according to the met office cold and snow showers pushing down from the N West Friday Saturday with good covering of snow in West UK.

I cant see that on any Met office forecast, FAX, or raw output.

[Frosty.]

No-one is having the rug pulled from under their feet. I do not understand why you say that there has not been a pattern change (which means a change on the overall pattern - not just in our locality). This is where we were at the end of Dec - no blocking just a large deep intact vortex and a flat pattern round the whole of the NH

.

We are now here with extensive NH blocking - unfortunately for us though is is mostly on the other side of the globe but you can see our current block and the large one that has developed over NW Russia.

Forecast a week ahead and still large amounts of blocking in the NH - again not very favourable for us.

Remember a pattern change does not necessarily mean lots of cold and snow - just better chances for this which what we currently have.

I did only say possibly and that was more a reaction to the underwhelming 00z that greeted me this morning, I also said it could just be a model wobble and i hope it is.

[Frosty.]

Not according to the met office cold and snow showers pushing down from the N West Friday Saturday with good covering of snow in West UK.

GOOD I hope it happens, am I the only one who thought the 00z and 06z were poor for snow potential south of scotland? maybe i'm in the twilight zone today.

[kold weather]

Not according to the met office cold and snow showers pushing down from the N West Friday Saturday with good covering of snow in West UK.

UKMO are likely using their own model for this one, the ECM also probably would have wintry/snow showers for a time. Even the GFS isn't that bad for the N.England.

Shouldn't be doom and gloom, but its fair to say the great outputs have long since left the models...keep looking for the bigger trends on the hemisphere output.