Model Discussion - 16th January

[AWD]

One thing of interest on the 06Z GEFS mean is that the SLP mean in FI over Greenland is 1030mb. Thats pretty impressive!

Ties in with the EC 32 day run too, according to Matt Hugo!

Expect to see +ve Greenland pressure anomalies on future GFS runs in FI!

[Frosty.]

The worst aspect of the current models is the chances of an easterly have nosedived but there is a fair chance of a more potent Northerly next week as shown on some of the 00z runs, the 6z looks out of step with the promising background changes but we are yet to see that promise convert into a good cold spell in a realistic timeframe, this friday looks colder everywhere and windier with a risk of wintry showers but then it turns milder into the weekend and then colder again early next week, the cold weather next week could easily upgrade to something more noteworthy.

[Yorkshiresnows]

The worst aspect of the current models is the chances of an easterly have nosedived but there is a fair chance of a more potent Northerly next week as shown on some of the 00z runs, the 6z looks out of step with the promising background changes but we are yet to see that promise convert into a good cold spell in a realistic timeframe, this friday looks colder everywhere and windier with a risk of wintry showers but then it turns milder into the weekend and then colder again early next week, the cold weather next week could easily upgrade to something more noteworthy.

Hi Frosty,

Yes, I am not convinced at all that we have seen the last of the changes in modal output. Just read G.P's technical note and also been looking at what Joe B has been posting on Weatherbell.

The longer range look has High pressure over Greenland and a Trough over Europe ... seems good agreement that this is a likely evolution (despite the recent operrationals) and hopefully within the next 10 day frame. The A/O looks like its to take a nose dive and the NAO should follow.

I read a good technical piece from Joe B in regards to placement and movement of High pressure between the troughs either side Stateside and also in Europe where he was not all convinced of the global modalling. He believes that Western Europe will see winter arrive with a cracking Feb Pattern (not dissimilar to Nov 2010). Maybe he is overselling, but given the background signals there is no need yet for doom and gloom (in my opinion).

So, it does not look great right here right now, but there's a long log way still to go and as G.P is at pains to point out, we are a million miles away from the dismal look to the Stratosphere of November. Fascinating stuff.

HOLD FAST !

Y.S

Edited January 17, 2012 by Yorkshiresnows

[Shunter]

Most negative I have seen it >

Seems the GFS 06z Operational has taking one of the +NAO options in this ensemble............

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its a good point you make YS, there's more life in the ZAtlantic just yet one feels probbaly with more gales to come but a cooling transition. It may be that if a real change occurs then its not until end of Jan beginning of Feb before it hits. It seems last nights ECM was a too big a step back BUT maybe picked up that changes won't appear as early as modelling was showing. A halfway house between ECM and GFS was spoke of in medium term and that does seem right at present over next 7 days.

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Hi Frosty, Yes, I am not convinced at all that we have seen the last of the changes in modal output. Just read G.P's technical note and also been looking at what Joe B has been posting on Weatherbell. The longer range look has High pressure over Greenland and a Trough over Europe ... seems good agreement that this is a likely evolution (despite the recent operrationals) and hopefully within the next 10 day frame. The A/O looks like its to take a nose dive and the NAO should follow. I read a good technical piece from Joe B in regards to placement and movement of High pressure between the troughs either side Stateside and also in Europe where he was not all convinced of the global modalling. He believes that Western Europe will see winter arrive with a cracking Feb Pattern (not dissimilar to Nov 2010). Maybe he is overselling, but given the background signals there is no need yet for doom and gloom (in my opinion). So, it does not look great right here right now, but there's a long log way still to go and as G.P is at pains to point out, we are a million miles away from the dismal look to the Stratosphere of November. Fascinating stuff. HOLD FAST ! Y.S

Yes i agree, the improving background changes are slowly feeding into the model output but not as much as I would like. I think we have a chance of a cold spell next week despite what the 6z op run shows, i'm thinking that the jet won't return to a sw/ne tilt as it shows, the Gem 00z T+240 chart looked very wintry and could be a signal for what happens next month.

[Zakos]

Frosty, your analysis is correct, but the given the very high model variability at the moment, Yorkshiresnows is right in saying there is a good chance the models have got it wrong, especially as they go against background signals, and the thoughts of GP and Joe B.

As i have stated on the previous page, the GFS is giving subtle but continual upgrades to the pattern.

The pattern change forecast by GP has already occurred. It may not have affected the UK yet, but as the long as the AO remains negative, its only a matter of time before the NAO follows.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Zakos

[smich]

Can anyone explain why the GFS operational continues to have so little support from it's ensembles? It's been going on for weeks now and happens almost every run, 0z, 6z, 12z pub run - the lot.

It's really very curious. I'm not saying it's an outright outlier, it just seems to be a very mild run at some stage time after time.

Any thoughts anyone?

Steve Mich

[Frosty.]

Frosty, your analysis is correct, but the given the very high model variability at the moment, Yorkshiresnows is right in saying there is a good chance the models have got it wrong, especially as they go against background signals, and the thoughts of GP and Joe B. As i have stated on the previous page, the GFS is giving subtle but continual upgrades to the pattern. The pattern change forecast by GP has already occurred. It may not have affected the UK yet, but as the long as the AO remains negative, its only a matter of time before the NAO follows.

Hi Zakos,

I totally agree with what you and Yorkshiresnows have written, the gfs 6z looked completely wrong to me, given the strongly improving background changes, just waiting for those changes to manifest into some mega cold charts that are closer to the reliable timeframe, i'm sure we will have some stellar charts for cold weather soon.

[Great Plum]

Can anyone explain why the GFS operational continues to have so little support from it's ensembles? It's been going on for weeks now and happens almost every run, 0z, 6z, 12z pub run - the lot.

It's really very curious. I'm not saying it's an outright outlier, it just seems to be a very mild run at some stage time after time.

Any thoughts anyone?

Steve Mich

Hi Steve,

I have also noticed it - the 06z ensembles are no different:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

The further north, the more Of an outlier it is.

The only thing I can offer is that it is 'reverting to zonality' after 192 hours when it goes into low res...

[Buzzit]

The only thing I can offer is that it is 'reverting to zonality' after 192 hours when it goes into low res...

Is one of the factors I give for suggesting that a major pattern change is on the scene.. (many of us are suggesting pattern change) at day 5/6 you are looking at a 5c and at day 10 you are basically looking at a 10c anomaly vs the 850 temp ensemble mean which is rediculous. (and this applies to most locations in the UK as well as France & Italy) ** sorry needed a few edits ***

Edited January 17, 2012 by Buzzit

[Zakos]

Yes, in the low res , the gfs continues to default to zonality, the rusian high crumbling away instantly. Its becoming increasingly evident that this is not going to happen IMO. I keep banging on about this russian high, but it is very strong and is proving to be very stubborn, i think that it could become a major player in our weather in the not so distant future.

[shedhead]

The worst aspect of the current models is the chances of an easterly have nosedived but there is a fair chance of a more potent Northerly next week as shown on some of the 00z runs, the 6z looks out of step with the promising background changes but we are yet to see that promise convert into a good cold spell in a realistic timeframe, this friday looks colder everywhere and windier with a risk of wintry showers but then it turns milder into the weekend and then colder again early next week, the cold weather next week could easily upgrade to something more noteworthy.

That has to be the main hope now Frosty if we are to salvage anything at all from January, otherwise it will be 11 down and 4 to go, but being as it's a leap year we do at least get an extra day of official winter... I think the lack of activity in the MOD pretty much says it all regarding tangible prospects for cold in the foreseeable future, Thurs and early Fri's snow showers across N and W Scotland apart that is - still plenty of potential, but to be fair we've been saying that all month and probably will continue to do so for some time yet.

[Tim Bland]

Here is a straw to clutch from the METO!! Presumably from the ECM 32 dayer run today! does anyone in here have access to it?

From long range outlook (6-15 days)

" There is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts."

Edited January 17, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Zakos]

WOW! The meto have jumped right of the fence!!

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

Well this is very, very encouraging from the met office, going from not even mentioning snow, to saying there is 45% (give or take) chance of seriously cold weather taking hold!

Edited January 17, 2012 by Zakos

[nick sussex]

Not much change in the GFS 06hrs run higher resolution, too much energy spilling east and not amplified enough to take advantage of the PV moving away from Greenland.

I'm still surprised though that its ensembles within 168hrs haven't shifted across to that solution, longer term I suppose everyones read the 6-15 day UKMO further outlook, the risk of colder conditions is in relation to the Canadian high which is often the pre signal before blocking over Greenland.

But thats a long way off and as we've seen the models have hardly been reliable in the last week.

Edited January 17, 2012 by nick sussex

[Snowman31]

Hi guys, where can i find the ECM 32 day run?

[nick sussex]

Hi guys, where can i find the ECM 32 day run?

It's not available to the general public but its output is often reflected in the UKMO extended outlook.

[Zakos]

Here is a straw to clutch from the METO!! Presumably from the ECM 32 dayer run today! does anyone in here have access to it?

From long range outlook (6-15 days)

" There is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts."

This is more than a straw I believe, knowing the meto, they would not say this unless there is a serious chance of it occurring. especially mentioning "much colder" whereas they would normally just say "slightly below average"

They have clearly have seen something in the models, perhaps the ECM 32dayer, or maybe their "superdata" which is indicating at significant northern blocking, and has led them to say this.

[Heisenberg]

This is more than a straw I believe, knowing the meto, they would not say this unless there is a serious chance of it occurring. especially mentioning "much colder" whereas they would normally just say "slightly below average"

They have clearly have seen something in the models, perhaps the ECM 32dayer, or maybe their "superdata" which is indicating at significant northern blocking, and has led them to say this.

Toally agree with this. It could be a good indicator to change being afoot (a Foot of snow lets hope :-)

[snowking]

This is more than a straw I believe, knowing the meto, they would not say this unless there is a serious chance of it occurring. especially mentioning "much colder" whereas they would normally just say "slightly below average"

They have clearly have seen something in the models, perhaps the ECM 32dayer, or maybe their "superdata" which is indicating at significant northern blocking, and has led them to say this.

Yep, this taken from twitter:

............

Yeah, certainly looks that way. EC 32 day remains very interesting 1st half of Feb, Greenland pressure rises, poss NE'lies

............

Ian fergusson goes on to suggest latest met office suggestions are NWly followed by cyclonic westerly (really as per 0z ECMWF op, which actually didn't look too bad for northern and eastern areas)

So ECM 32 dayer perhaps backing what Nick S has just suggested re: Canadian high > Greenland high

[snowray]

Yes your quite right Steve, this has been going on for some time now, in fact if you look at the various individual ensemble members from the 06z you will notice that on a majority of the runs the Azores high is not so pronounced, some have it moving way to the South West and out of Europe completely wit HP to the North starting to show up. The higher resolution run should be closer to the mark of course, but which model has even come close of late? None? Maybe UKMO?

This would tie in with GP's view and also the Met Office recent update for late Jan/Early Feb that big changes are under way.

Would be good timing since the last 3 days of Jan are considered the peak point in Winter.

Regards

Ray

[bluearmy]

It's not available to the general public but its output is often reflected in the UKMO extended outlook.

this is where i'm confused nick. the update they have made isnt the extended one, its the 14 dayer which should reflect current ecm ens data. where is the cold cluster days 10-14 ??? maybe the 32 day run is very clear in its thinking and it is the second run to show this scenario. i guess they feel its a base they have to cover if they are going to talk about possibilities of cold in early feb when the 30 day release is done.

[Zakos]

this is where i'm confused nick. the update they have made isnt the extended one, its the 14 dayer which should reflect current ecm ens data. where is the cold cluster days 10-14 ??? maybe the 32 day run is very clear in its thinking and it is the second run to show this scenario. i guess they feel its a base they have to cover if they are going to talk about possibilities of cold in early feb when the 30 day release is done.

This indicates that the Met have binned outputs such as the GFS. This I do not blame them for as they have obviously grown tiresome of its inconsistency.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Zakos

[m1chaels]

Can anyone explain why the GFS operational continues to have so little support from it's ensembles? It's been going on for weeks now and happens almost every run, 0z, 6z, 12z pub run - the lot.

It's really very curious. I'm not saying it's an outright outlier, it just seems to be a very mild run at some stage time after time.

Any thoughts anyone?

Steve Mich

I was wondering if it related to the op being run in higher resolution (is this correct?). I think it is fairly generally agreed that the reason that cold synopics in FI often do not come to fruition is that at longer range the models can not pick up the small pertubations that become short waves that then modify the cold synoptics. If the op is run in higher resolution then it may model some of these modifying short waves that the lower resolution ensemble runs do not pick up - hence they show the cold FI solutions when the OP does not? Just a thought from an observer and I am sure the more experienced and knowledgeable of the models will be able to expain why I am wrong.