Model Discussion - 16th January

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No what is bizarre is the total switch from models, it actually is making it ridiculous and semi-pointless.....I mean the millions of pounds in the technology etc and we get....well last couple of weeks.......baffling. :smilz38: Is the ECM an outlier and total wobble? It s happened many times before, and many times a wobble has proven right.

BFTP

Edited January 16, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[legritter]

looking at ALL MODELLS ,its still saying , big pool of cold heading south or s/e . lets take away the high to our s/w ,which at the moment i think is being attacked come this weekend . beyond 144 hrs could go any way , GFS as forecast some good blocking to our east later in its runs , this could help push a good cyclonic spell south across our shores . this could be the start of something a bit more interesting , . i would say going on present mod output ,there is a very good chance of snow in favoured locations ,even at low levels before next mon /tue and keep an eye on that cold front to our south on sat , i wonder what GFS will throw up for this sat /sun on tonights run , looking foreward to tonights fax cheers gang

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

To be honest looking at the ensembles this could be the last cold spell of the winter with a return to mild imminent. GFS out to t384 is from an almost exclusively westerly direction. The MO have updated their 16-30 dayer to a generally milder outlook, especially for the NW compared to the cold Feb that they were calling about a week ago. Could this be the only cold spell of the winter ? Would be remarkable if that were the case.

Nothing concrete to clutch at at all in the reliable. With the Russian high just refusing to play ball sending the cold SW into Turkey and Greece as it often does in winter.

Slightly disagree with your assessment of the Metoffice 16-30 day forecast. It may not scream bitter cold air and snow but what has been taken out from the previous forecast is the fact temperatures are not expected to return to above average. A slight improovement in my eyes.

Rather unsettled conditions are expected to continue into the first half of February. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly below average for the time of year at first with showers and longer spells of rain at times, which may turn wintry, particularly over high ground and in the north. Overnight frosts are likely in clearer periods, but some milder spells with rain are possible too.

Updated: 1224 on Mon 16 Jan 2012

[Radiating Dendrite]

Not surprised to see the ECM jump ship. It feels like we have been 'seeing' things in the output the last few weeks because some have suggested a pattern change during the middle of the month.

Apart from the phantom easterly, have the charts shown really been that good? I would say no, especially compared to the last few years.

Something may evolve in the next few weeks, but we seem unable to shake off zonality at the moment, with cold Synoptics seemingly disappearing from the output before our eyes.

[mountain shadow]

GFS slightly better already out tot+66. Pressure higher over Greenland and Newfoundland low slightly further west and more disrupted.

[Zakos]

Even at 60 hours out, the azores high is significantly further west, and the heights over svalbard are more pronounced. PV aslo signifcantly further west.

Now, will the cold itself be further west over us later on in the run?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It will be just like the GFS now to turn in a stellar run......already digging deeper and amplifying more at t72

BFTP

[danm]

Well, after the horror show that was the ECM, it's back to the GFS 18z.

Out to t78 and it's more amplified than the 12z:

18z:

12z:

Edited January 16, 2012 by danm

[rug]

It will be just like the GFS now to turn in a stellar run......already digging deeper and amplifying more at t72

BFTP

Knew you would not be able to resist having a look !

[feb1991blizzard]

It will be just like the GFS now to turn in a stellar run......already digging deeper and amplifying more at t72

BFTP

Yep, just noticed it, PV ever so slightly further west and slightly higher heights over GL, and as the 12 gave us a PM shot then at the very least this should give us a better PM shot.

[on the coast]

At 72 it's different again. What is going on. At 84 it is no where near the ECM. I really dont understand whats going on at the moment.

[danm]

More ridging between Scandi and Iceland on this run at t96.

[Isolated Frost]

Bizarre, ECM 12z pulls out a shocker when it comes to continental cold and SES build-up.. and by 9pm mood levels were very low here.. the parallel GEFS, ECM ensembles, GFS 18z and GP's tech post has changed things pretty much completely again.

And yet we continue on this long ride. The NWP's know how to push some over the edge. Technical signals, teleconnections and the stratosphere+mid-troposphere has given some consistency however, and those following them are in a much better position. Still my odds are becoming much colder as we progress.

[mountain shadow]

Look at the Col between Iceland and Norway. Can the Azores High fill the gap?

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120116/18/99/h500slp.png

[Matty M]

18z could work out well i the medium term.

That's what our focus is now, and i feel our best hope

However it will take a big puuuuuuuuuuush. But let's grab it.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Matty M

[danm]

Quite a marked difference at 120 between the 18z and 12z. Not sure if it's better or worse. Less chance of an easterly developing in the 168 range for sure:

[Timmytour]

Did the low over Denmark for saturday on the 12z just disappear? High pressure from east to move in?

[on the coast]

Well at 120 maybe the ECM has the right idea after all. No ridging going to happen with this.

[mountain shadow]

No easterly but a proper northerly in the offing?

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120116/18/120/h500slp.png

[danm]

The 18z throws up a new scenario. Rather than cold from the east, it shows a possible northerly scenario by t126. Heights building over Greeny, azores backing west, PV lobe digging south, any sign of an easterly now non existent:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Quite a marked difference at 120 between the 18z and 12z. Not sure if it's better or worse. Less chance of an easterly developing in the 168 range for sure:

Intriguing, perhaps an opportunity for ridging towards the mid Atlantic and Greenland later on http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120116/18/132/npsh500.png. The plot thickens yet further...

[Weathizard]

The difference between runs at the moment is just silly, look at the heights building over Greenland.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No this will be a similar poor run to the ECM, there is no ridging. Against the background signals and not a lot more to be said....except POOR.....or the composites and teleconnections are POOR. Reason why I don't generally use them....but its fun trying to unravel them One or other is very wrong....

BFTP

Edited January 16, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Geordiesnow]

It will be just like the GFS now to turn in a stellar run......already digging deeper and amplifying more at t72

BFTP

I REALLY wish people would stop speculating on a run before it even produces the charts because even though you were right it was slightly more amplified, its actually flatter than the 12Z and in some ways we are kinda seeing what we may of been expecting a few days ago with the GFS persistance of having a flatter pattern and the ECM's prediction of a more amplified ridging which slowly but surely downgraded as we got nearer the realiable timeframe.

I did say this on the 14th Jan...

Again tomorrow morning runs may hold the answer but you do start to get a sneeky feeling the GFS could be more nearer right than the ECM. E.g, we will probably see a much small ridge than first predicted by the ECM and any cold shot will be short-lived with milder air feeding on a WNW'ly flow from the Azores high

Not bragging or boasting as I could be incorrect and I want a cold pattern but at this stage(54-114 hours), that is what the ECM and the GFS18Z runs are showing. Even the NW'ly polar shot has been downgraded with a few kinks in the isobars which creates milder sectors.

[TEITS]

This is doing my head in!

Clearly see the difference between the 12/18Z. The 12Z had LP diving SE which allowed the block to the NE to ridge W whereas the 18Z has LP over Iceland preventing this from happening.

Very little confidence in any of the model output. I will add im disappointed with some of the posts i've read this evening and I shall explain why in the model mood thread.