Model Discussion - 16th January

[PolarWarsaw]

I have to be honest and say, doesn't this mean the ECM has backed down to the GFS? Certainly more than vice versa? Very poor runs today and we need to hope this is an outlier or that the 0z is far more promising or else I fear we may end up chasing yet another week away before we see something chilly. I seriously hope 2012 and february offers something very snowy and cold, 2011 was a dire year.

[Isolated Frost]

Nice, France EPS grams tonight pretty important, as is the De Bilt ensembles.

The 12z ECMWF is VERY different to yesterdays' 12z offering- I feel as though it will either be a massive outlier temperature wise, pressure wise OR a slight change overall with just a few switches to turn on.

[TonyH]

Unless this latest ECM is a mild outliar, it just about sums up the models latest performance.. > DIRE

Well let's hope it's a LIAR full stop!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM, where did that come from?? If it verifies, there is no prolonged cold coming for some time...its a very poor run.

BFTP

Edited January 16, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[phil nw.]

Let`s keep it friendly please.

I can imagine that a few of you are disappointed at some of the output,however let`s avoid aggressive comments.

Edited January 16, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Eastbourneguy]

Just when we think we are close to getting things nailed this ECM run appears. We keep saying oh next run we will know! Hah, damn you models!

It's only one run guys, no Prozac until all the models show this outcome and I have a strong feeling this run will be one of the warmest of the ensembles.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Eastbourneguy

[Zakos]

Just as you thought GFS and ECM were starting to come to an agreement, the ECM throws this at is.

Now, it is the GFS and all models (more or less) against the ECM.

when a few days ago it was the exact opposite

Model watching is becoming ever more frustrating.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Zakos

[snowlover2009]

Not only does the ecm seem to have back tracked a bit, it could also be an outlier. But, the gfs 12z, mid terms looks fairly interesting and IMO the most interesting now. It is just typical. All the models are showing something totally different and no one knows what is going to happen.

[Bristawl Si]

ECM, where did that come from?? If it verifies, there is no prolonged cold coming for some time...its a very poor run.

BFTP

Yes, and would seriously endanger the LRFs posted this Winter - it just seems that any potential cold is being put back further.

I'd be interested to know GP's and Roger's thoughts at this stage (this is NOT a dig whatsoever). I'm just interested, because they're the only LRFs i took any notice of the other month.

[ANYWEATHER]

With All respect to everyone on here, Slim pickings for anyone who wants some significant Wintry weather. I think some members are "Cherry Picking" the Models which is fair enough , but I certainly dont see anything ,other than Normal Wintry weather ,with the Bulk of the snow reserved for the Scottish Mountains and the Scottish Ski Industry will likely do well out of this. If any doubt ,check out the latest Output from the more "Reputable" Models!!

[winterof79]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120116/12/87/uksnowrisk.png

Lets get the rest of this week sorted first.There is plenty in the output to interest me when the cold air is so close to the uk.

[nick sussex]

No point trying to put any positive spin on tonights ECM, after some really nice output this evening the ECM goes over to the dark side.

After days of GFS underwhelming output that improves and the ECM goes the other way, for some reason even it can't hang on to decent synoptics. I think whats particularly frustrating is that after watching the PV limpet itself to Greenland for the whole winter it decides to head to Canada and yet still the end result from the ECM operational run is a totally underwhelming output.

I could say well the high looks like slowing the jet down in eastern Canada and the jet looks to be heading further south but will that verify?

Lets hope that its gone AWOL this evening and is just trying to string the drama out as theres little agreement between the models at 144hrs, until we get agreement we won't know which model has called the pattern correctly.

[Jimmyh]

Well the fear factor and prozac is about to be unleashed. Surely we should wait for the next run to come out. As has been said before on this site and many times before. Model watching lurches from one to another. I feel that the cold weather is tantalising close and only needs to shift about a hundred miles or so and it game on

[Stuie]

Hmm a very similar output between the UkMO and the ECM but not in the same time frame.

UKMO T144 - http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

ECM T96 - http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0

Edited January 16, 2012 by Sinth

[phil nw.]

Just comparing the GFS Ens. graph.Yesterdays 12z on the left,Today`s on the right.

Still looking on the cold side with more members below 0c further on.

[Cloud 10]

Nice, France EPS grams tonight pretty important, as is the De Bilt ensembles.

The 12z ECMWF is VERY different to yesterdays' 12z offering- I feel as though it will either be a massive outlier temperature wise, pressure wise OR a slight change overall with just a few switches to turn on.

Yes,some subtle differences between yesterdays 12z ecm and today's at 168hrs. :lol:

yesterday> today>

Not much energy/troughing heading SE compared to ensemble mean,so probably one

for the shredder after 144hrs.

00z ens mean>

[IDO]

The models are now nearly aligned, offering us much of what we have had for the last six weeks but giving us a cooler spin on it. Even late FI has been removed of eye candy and as GFS takes us into Feb...well I dont need to draw pictures. The GFS looks more likely to have modeled this weekend's cold (cool probably, no mild) spell. No surprise as the upstream pattern was coming from N. America and they are a clever bunch. The CFS masterclass has been very consistent bringing in mild temps into the UK around 7th Feb right through to March via an Atlantic HP (not him again) so I might have to admit that this weekend may be our winter.

I am away tomorrow so just posting my thoughts on tomorrow's runs:

Well I cannot believe it, the models have done a flip flop flip (maybe another flop there) and the ridging is back on. GFS is operated by those US guys who are more interested in who will be the next leader of the Republicans, and they have taken their eye off the ball. I always find ECM have upstream patterns sussed better than other models. Now the question is how long will this cold spell go on for? Oh sorry, two questions, who is Jon Huntsman? CFS have predicted a predominantly mild Feb so (wink wink) we now know its a good time to clean off our ski boots. Looking great.

The moral of the story is that our close cousin the ape could have come up with more sense than the last five day's models.

“Keep your dreams alive. Understand to achieve anything requires faith and belief in yourself, vision, hard work, determination, and dedication. Remember all things are possible for those who believe.â€

Edited January 16, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[willinkent]

swings and roundabouts...... gfs decides its not having, ecm follows few days later..... remember the models dont like high pressure over scandinavia/greenland that give us cold like nov/dec 2010..... and im not talking about uk's top model hehe.... no its all in the air at the moment, exciting because its so unpredictable..... ive enjoyed having cold clear air over us.... -6c, -5c and -3.5c last three nights....thick white frosts, sunny days.....lovely...... I hope for some snow at some point....dream of feet of the stuff, but its so rare in this country, down here at least..... anyways wigan vs man city to focus on before next models out so.....bye for now......

[OldMetMan]

Hmm, I think the ECM has become demented judging by the 12Z! What HAVE we got? Arctic front activity? Sure looks like it.

Massive upper trough covering most of the N Atlantic and UK, and how about that intense HP over N Canada!

It seems a bit of stretch to say the least for such an amplified development to happen from T144 to T240 - a mere 4 days.. If such a pattern did, by some remote chance verify, the resulting actual weather would be interesting indeed - certainly cold enough for widespread snow - and such a trough would take some dislodging.

I await with great interest subsequent runs!

[Stevew]

Model watching here with even more than the usual level of interest.

We have been staying in Nice, France for a few days but have to drive to Villars Sur Ollon nr Lake Geneva by the end of the week 1800m asl. We were planning to leave on Thursday morning to beat the snow and were looking forward to the weather there at the end of the week. However, we have been completely thrown by the pesky ECM run. It better be an extreme outliner!

[willinkent]

Hmm, I think the ECM has become demented judging by the 12Z! What HAVE we got? Arctic front activity? Sure looks like it.

Massive upper trough covering most of the N Atlantic and UK, and how about that intense HP over N Canada!

It seems a bit of stretch to say the least for such an amplified development to happen from T144 to T240 - a mere 4 days.. If such a pattern did, by some remote chance verify, the resulting actual weather would be interesting indeed - certainly cold enough for widespread snow - and such a trough would take some dislodging.

I await with great interest subsequent runs!

I agree.......

[mcweather]

Well we're doing again aren't we getting the prozac out because of one run. :blink:

From a personal viewpoint and from over 40 years of weather watching experience I believe that this weekends progged cold /cooler spell is the start of a gradual transition to a real piece of winter as we go through february and only part one of the transition at that. We should remember from GP'S forecast that mid january would be our first window of opportunity not our only window of opportunity.

In reality if the models were to serve up and and verify on a 2 week cold and snowy spell with a northerly outbreak becoming an easterly one just about every cold/snow lover would be happy. I would point people in the direction of the winter of 77/78 when naff all happened until the last week of Jan for Scotland and the second and third weeks in Feb for the rest of us. but when it came it was certainly worth having waited nearly all winter for it.

With the waning PV coming under continuing and further attack pretty much anything beyond 144 on any of the models is little more than speculation. Such volatile condtions are going to mean rapid changes in output as varing ideas are picked up because of this I think we will find that when our piece of winter arrives it will do so at relatively short notice.

Edited January 16, 2012 by mcweather

[Matty M]

ECM, where did that come from?? If it verifies, there is no prolonged cold coming for some time...its a very poor run.

BFTP

Take a look at the 0z ECM EPS postage stamps. 50% if not more went for what the 12z ECM is showing tonight.

It did not come out of nowhere, it is a very possible outcome, lets see what the ECM EPS show again tonight.

And if you view the ECM on wetterzentrale, you might get a better grasp of why it isn't a bad run, it

is not right yet but there would not have to be too much tweaking to get a good quality cold blast.

I think people are getting upset over something that will actually bring better hopes of cold for the UK and IRE in 7-10 days

Edited January 16, 2012 by Paul
No need to be quite so abrupt Matt

[BlueHedgehog074]

Seems like the 12Z JMA has now decided to join forces with ECMWF with its flatter pattern. Despite this, and despite the winds being more Westerly, the -5 uppers do, from time to time, reach Northern areas - these parts of which should still see some wintry weather, especially on high ground. Not quite as good news for those in Southern areas wanting to see some wintry weather, though.

Either, it's just a coincidence that these are both outliers which may unlikely verify, or that they have started to pick up a new trend.

The latest NOGAPS run, as well as the other models, have the troughing into Europe still ending up further West when compared with the JMA and ECMWF, so there's is still some hope.

Although in FI, I think the ECMWF pressure chart at 240 hours does have potential for perhaps a stronger cold spell to develop, what with those keen heights over America/Northern America. Some of that High looks as though it may ridge into Greenland which then may force the Lows over the UK and in the Western Atlantic to track South-Eastwards. This should then encourage the big High Pressure system to the West of spain to be squeezed North-Westwards and form a big block in the Atlantic:

ECMWF chart at 240 hours. The black circled High Pressure attempting to ridge towards Greenland. The black arrows, however, show where the Lows may be forced to track (if this happens) and we could end up with an Easterly/North-Easterly eventually.

Edit: With that chart being in FI, this could easily change anyway.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Rainbow Snow

[nick sussex]

Hmm, I think the ECM has become demented judging by the 12Z! What HAVE we got? Arctic front activity? Sure looks like it.

Massive upper trough covering most of the N Atlantic and UK, and how about that intense HP over N Canada!

It seems a bit of stretch to say the least for such an amplified development to happen from T144 to T240 - a mere 4 days.. If such a pattern did, by some remote chance verify, the resulting actual weather would be interesting indeed - certainly cold enough for widespread snow - and such a trough would take some dislodging.

I await with great interest subsequent runs!

You're the only one then!

I think most people are now suffering from model fatigue and just want a resolution to this so we can either throw our toys out of the pram or look forward to something a bit more interesting!

You'd think this modelling lark was rocket science given the inability of the models to just agree on an outcome at 144hrs!

The ECM is my favourite model but even thats getting on my nerves now! In terms of the ECM NOAA have gone with the earlier ECM ensemble mean/operational combo.

BASED ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS THE UPDATED PRELIM FCST WAS BASED ON

A SOLN CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF ON DAYS 3-4 THU-FRI... WITH HALF

WEIGHTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INCLUDED DAYS 5-7 SAT-MON

TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED DETAIL UNCERTAINTY BY THAT TIME. THE 12Z

GFS STILL DISPLAYS A PROGRESSIVE TENDENCY IN GENERAL WITH THE 12Z

GEFS MEAN HEDGING AT LEAST PARTIALLY AWAY FROM GFS IDEAS. OTHER

12Z SOLNS VARY TO SOME DEGREE BUT WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CONSENSUS TO

RECOMMEND MEANINGFUL CHANGES IN THE PRELIM FCST ASIDE FROM A

SLIGHTLY WEAKER TREND WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST EARLY

IN THE PERIOD.

However I'm not sure if they even included the ECM 12hrs in that discussion, they mentioned other 12hrs solutions but normally they single out the ECM.