Model Discussion - 16th January

[Harsh Climate]

I think i's squeeky bum time for those that called for a cold or very cold second half of january

[Daniel Miller]

Agreed, but even thats downgraded slightly though, your location doesnt have any sub 528dam air anywhere near it, wheras last night it did.

That's true, but compared to the runs of the ECM, GFS etc. that is a minute detail. It could just as easily be back over me next time around (I hope)

In the grand scheme of things though, I would rather somewhere in the country got snow, rather than nowhere, as at least that would mean it may get a bit colder at the least!

[Alex]

GFS 18z looks like a very mobile pattern with depression after depression running over northern areas from next week onwards, there are hints of some blocking developing to the west of Greenland over eastern canada towards the end of the run.

The best description would be for a mostly westerly pattern to develop in the medium to longer term with some polar maritime shots in more abundance than so far this winter. Windy too in the north at times with local gales. Temps around avg maybe a tad below ESP at first. Shorter term we have a northwesterly air flow on Friday and Saturday so some wintry showers could develop in the PM type flow.

[Jason M]

Might want to check the fax chart: http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Completely different from the latest ECM and GFS runs.

Yes, it is better than the GFS run thats for sure. Its only my opinion of course anyway and I could easily be wrong but I've seen this sort of set up before and whilst I recognise that there are others who can give highly technical reasons why the Azures high will get lost (see GPs latest excellent post in the techy thread)it doesnt mean it will! The global pattern could undergo massive changes but it doesn't always follow that in our tiny backyard that things will change.

GFS has seemed poor of late although i'm wondering if its now close to nailing the next ten days. The ECM run was just plain odd in places but its been trending zonal since yesterday evening. We will know in the morning for sure i suspect but IMO any chance of an easterly early next week is gone. With an Azures high so close to us it simply cannot happen.

If come the morning i'm wrong, I'll be the happiest person on the forum, but we are where we are.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Jason M

[on the coast]

Even FI doesn't offer any crumbs of comfort. the jet is stuck to us like a fly round the proverbial!! The model trend after todays runs looks like a flat pattern

till the end of the month. This would probably explain the Met Office outlook. Some stormy cool weather to follow?

[J10]

Agreed, but even thats downgraded slightly though, your location doesnt have any sub 528dam air anywhere near it, wheras last night it did.

Whereas the GFS tonight does have us under 528 dam line

(until the 00Hz)

Does anyone know why the FAX for T+120 has been issued before T+96 (which is still stuck on yesterdays output.)

[Fozfoster]

Please close my door on my way out. God dam models not making it easy for a muppet

Like me see you all in a couple of days :-(

[Alex]

Following the models in depth recently has thrown up many different scenarios but the one tonight looks more plausible and not so messy, the realms of FI on the GFS 12z could well hint a pattern change into Feb with that block over Canada trying to push into Greenland.

TBH There really isn't much change showing from recent weeks apart from blocking to our far NE and over Canada.

[Mark Neal.]

Haven't posted for a while, but the model output recently has been incredibly poor, firstly the GFS and then the Ecm. Now they both seem to be very poor. I feel there will be more twists and turns in the coming runs. Its amazing how some are so quick to write off winter with 1 run, though 1 run of good models and they are cautious and understate the potential. Unbelievable really. Sometimes its best just to sit back and watch the experts or the more advanced weather people in this thread!

[ukpaul]

By 132h the GFS op has totally lost support from the ensemble members.

Would the ops be picking up on some seemingly insignificant factor that is only really shown in high resolution? Does anyone who knows the sort of data that is fed in know how much we are relying on any small differences in what is being reported?

[DAVID SNOW]

Whereas the GFS tonight does have us under 528 dam line

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2214883

(until the 00Hz)

Does anyone know why the FAX for T+120 has been issued before T+96 (which is still stuck on yesterdays output.)

Not sure, maybe the senior forecaster at the Met Office slipped on a cream bun sending him flying over the secrataries desk,hitting his left elbow on the wrong key?

Sorry.

[damianslaw]

500MB flow outlook is for an airstream between north and west - based on this we will maintain a NW-SE tracking jet with the azores high not ridging NE consequently amplification looks the order of the day particularly as we move towards the end of the month - so not the flat pattern being shown by GFS tonight.

I'm expecting lot more flip flopping from the models this week - with each one showing a different scenario to its last output - in this respect I think it is best not to get too hung up on what they are showing and as ever look at the longer term background signals which continue to paint the building blocks for much colder conditions thanks to a weakened PV and the influence of heights to our NE. This is how I see things developing as we head towards February.

[Mark Neal.]

Sorry guys but i have a question for you all, does anyone know how reliable the fax chart is, any verication stats?? Sorry for bothering you, but just very curious...

Regards,

Mark

[TEITS]

GEFS ensembles upto +180.

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Clearly see the disagreement begins around +120.

In my opinion what the models are struggling with is will LP track SE or E. At +96 we have reasonable agreement of heights dropping into S Europe but its what happens to the next LP. If this sinks SE then the HP to our NE can ridge W. If however the LP tracks E then the block to our NE cannot ridge W.

[Jason M]

Opp run looks a big mild outlier in fairness. Some decent easterlies in amongst the ensembles but the opp is not without some support. Given the short timescale now until the weekend the higher res opp should be favoured (based on logic), but then again the models will make an ass of us all!

[TEITS]

The ensembles say it all with 9 out of 20 showing cold N/NE/E,ly between +120 to +180. Even at +96 we see disagreement with the depth and track of the LP. The other ensembles show similiar to the ECM/18Z.

One of my favourites..

[Great Plum]

The ensembles for London show it all...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

The op is one of the mildest after the 20th and is the mildest for a while... The mean runs between -5 and -3 throughout after the initial dip...

[bradymk]

Joe laminate floori on twitter "Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term"    some nice gfs ensembles aswell, but like said above, alot of uncertainty about track of lp

Edited January 16, 2012 by bradythemole

[bradymk]

laminate floori* sorry predictive text on phone haha

[PolarWarsaw]

0z looks marginally better to me after t144. Something from the north perhaps?

Edit - Take a look at the PV also, looking far less intense and a little further west. Better run imo.

Whats your thoughts Snowy, can you see you lurking?

Edited January 17, 2012 by Radders

[Snowy Easterly]

big difference between UKMO and GFS at just T96

[PolarWarsaw]

Do you have a link to the run S.E?

[geordiekev]

Do you have a link to the run S.E?

Here is a link to the current run:

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

I have to say it looks like very brief cold affair around the 20th from the current GFS run and after that very much a north south split with regards the -5s overhead, although I am at pains to say I don't think the pattern change is nailed just yet and we have a only a few more runs of nail biting before we can relax and hopefully watch the old lamp posts.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO 96-

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm961.html

UKMO 120-

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rukm1201.html

GFS 96/120/144/168/-

Edited January 17, 2012 by happy days

[The PIT]

GFS 00 oz looks more the ECM 12 oz basically following it's ideas. So nothing major in the way of major cold at all temps average to slightly below. Possibly wintry at times on northern hills.

Could well be stormy again at times.

Edited January 17, 2012 by IanM
You'll not be shocked by the edit?