Model Discussion - 16th January

[Matty M]

No easterly but a proper northerly in the offing?

http://cdn.nwstatic....120/h500slp.png

I think we can work on it MS. Further runs needed but not an absolute outlandish outcome

[igloo]

this evenings GFS does look like a real shocker for the coldies out there any short lived cold snap looks to be dashed the pattern is a lot flatter than the earlier run and now looks like the earlier ECM and JMA runs a new trend looks to be emerging tomorrow mornings runs will decide it i feel for sure

Edited January 16, 2012 by igloo

[Snowy Easterly]

Height to the north east have been replaced by a 960mb low at T144, i give up

[Zakos]

The difference between runs at the moment is just silly, look at the heights building over Greenland.

I have seen more consistency at 300 hours, then at the current 120 hours/ (between 12z-18z)

Clearly a major pattern change is going to occur. All models have been appalling recently.

Computers have limits, and this pattern change is really pushing them...

[danm]

The 18z develops a cool NW'erly rather than a cold N'erly. Azores high not really budging, no ridging up to Greeny. Very low confidence in anything as each run from both the GFS and ECM are now swinging wildly.

[TEITS]

Latest fax chart is nothing like the GFS or ECM at +120.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Met O have obviously gone with the UKMO output.

[January Snowstorm]

Well the 18z run is following ECM's route.

Looks like the ECM has found a new trend and the all important Russian high is getting no where near us

We are stuck in a bad place right now and although the models are clueless they all agree on no cold for us

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs run follows the ECM with the same trend, so maybe thats todays solution from the models.

Lets hope they drop that as quickly as they've done with others during the last week!

The NOGAPS has that trend but then drops the low south, overall a rather disappointing end to the evenings model output.

[PolarWarsaw]

Clueless output again, as things swing. Close, really close to giving in a staying away for a while. If the 0z doesn't show something nicer for coldies or at least consistency across the board I think that'l be it.

[danm]

Latest fax chart is nothing like the GFS or ECM at +120.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Met O have obviously gone with the UKMO output.

Looks decent! Better than anything the GFS or ECM have chucked up this afternoon.

[Weather Wizard]

Latest fax chart is nothing like the GFS or ECM at +120.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Met O have obviously gone with the UKMO output.

Wow

That's a brilliant fax chart compared to what the models are showing shows how much confidence the UKMO has with the models at the moment.

[Matty M]

Well the 18z run is following ECM's route.

Looks like the ECM has found a new trend and the all important Russian high is getting no where near us

We are stuck in a bad place right now and although the models are clueless they all agree on no cold for us

I know the output has disappointed many but i am really confident that the progression will aid us in the long run.

I think the period from 25thJAN --> will see things get going,

[PolarWarsaw]

Indeed it does, but there's a slight backtrack in cold terms on the FAX compared to last nights with showed the 528Dam Line trenched across the far tip of the SW.

[andreas]

Anyone have a dartboard?

[chionomaniac]

A lot of these posts could be in the other model thread. I am posting the more chatty comments there - so why don't you?

[Jason M]

Well whatever happens down the line on this run, coupled with the earlier ECM we can put the weekend cold snap to bed now I think. The Azures high isnt going anywhere in the forseeable and same rule applies as per the last couple of months ie Azures high nearby = no snow.

Higher pressure over Greenland is more prominent but outcome is the same. The problem in my view is that whilst we can change the global picture it doesnt mean that the Azures high will be dislodged and without this happening it is a near impossibility for us to get anything particularly cold. Its such a set pattern that I can see it lasting through Feb as well.

Of concern, might be the continued lack of rainfall in the SE.

Jason

[Zakos]

Well whatever happens down the line on this run, coupled with the earlier ECM we can put the weekend cold snap to bed now I think. The Azures high isnt going anywhere in the forseeable and same rule applies as per the last couple of months ie Azures high nearby = no snow.

Higher pressure over Greenland is more prominent but outcome is the same. The problem in my view is that whilst we can change the global picture it doesnt mean that the Azures high will be dislodged and without this happening it is a near impossibility for us to get anything particularly cold. Its such a set pattern that I can see it lasting through Feb as well.

Of concern, might be the continued lack of rainfall in the SE.

Jason

What?

[Brum Watcher]

The models are absolutely shocking in terms of shifts recently. one run to another you dont know what to expect. unbelievable. ukmo probably the most consistent for a while now.

[Geordiesnow]

Latest fax chart is nothing like the GFS or ECM at +120.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Met O have obviously gone with the UKMO output.

Give me one time when the UKMO fax charts does not follow the UKMO raw output, surely the fax charts are just a forecasters drawing of what the latest UKMO model is showing with warm/cold/occluded fronts/troughs added where the computer model are placing them!

People keep saying in this thread, its only one run and I suppose it is but remember the GFS was showing a much flatter pattern and granted it could turn out marginally more amplified but you can't say the GFS runs from a few days ago are poles apart to what we are seeing from this evenings GFS/ECM runs so I will back that this particular Azores high will flatten out and we just got to hope for "another bite at the cherry" so to speak.

[danm]

Well whatever happens down the line on this run, coupled with the earlier ECM we can put the weekend cold snap to bed now I think. The Azures high isnt going anywhere in the forseeable and same rule applies as per the last couple of months ie Azures high nearby = no snow.

Higher pressure over Greenland is more prominent but outcome is the same. The problem in my view is that whilst we can change the global picture it doesnt mean that the Azures high will be dislodged and without this happening it is a near impossibility for us to get anything particularly cold. Its such a set pattern that I can see it lasting through Feb as well.

Of concern, might be the continued lack of rainfall in the SE.

Jason

Might want to check the fax chart: http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Completely different from the latest ECM and GFS runs.

[TEITS]

Looking at the GFs for the 25th Jan and then comparing to the Oslo SLP ensembles and I cannot see much support for the LP over Scandi.

http://cdn.nwstatic....2/prmslOslo.png

Having said this these ensembles are just as fickle as the model output. Worth comparing the SLP mean from the 12/18Z though.

Edited January 16, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Daniel Miller]

I may be wrong but I would think that at times like this, the FAX charts would be the best charts to follow, seeing as they do not suffer from such diversity... They come purely from the minds that had the ability to MAKE the models in the first place, and so should be able to give us a decent picture, I would have thought.

[Harsh Climate]

The models are absolutely shocking in terms of shifts recently. one run to another you dont know what to expect. unbelievable. ukmo probably the most consistent for a while now.

The ECM has been the worst though, won't be entrusting much faith into that model in the near future

Best to stick with the telleconections and ukmo at the moment.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[feb1991blizzard]

I may be wrong but I would think that at times like this, the FAX charts would be the best charts to follow, seeing as they do not suffer from such diversity... They come purely from the minds that had the ability to MAKE the models in the first place, and so should be able to give us a decent picture, I would have thought.

Agreed, but even thats downgraded slightly though, your location doesnt have any sub 528dam air anywhere near it, wheras last night it did.

[nick sussex]

The bizarre evening takes another turn with the NOAA map for 6-10 days:

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/610day.03.gif

That totally contradicts both the ECM 12hrs run and the current horror show from the GFS 18hrs run.

The 8-14 day outlook does though look close to the ECM 240hrs with trough over the UK and strong Canadian high:

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

As long as you don't get a western based negative NAO then that trough is likely to slowly sink south as that high is often a precursor to blocking towards Greenland but given recent events it's best to just expect not too much!

We're not even sure whether tonights earlier ECM trend will last longer than a few hours before imploding!

Edited January 16, 2012 by nick sussex