Model Discussion - 16th January

[joggs]

Evening everybody.End of the world stuff tonight judging by some peeps posts! Anyway seems ecm has backtracked on that run(but its only 1 run Plenty of positives re: background signals,stat,cold to the ne, we are not benefiting yet. Also its only mid jan n hpoefully with changes afoot n with a little luck? Could have raging zonal akin to december for the rest of winter Chins up cold lovers(thats me by the way) we are in a better place than a few weeks ago!

[January Snowstorm]

At Last .....A Realistic Post!! Seems that anyone new who comes on here, would be thinking we are in for some serious Winter Weather! Too many "Cherry Picking" and " HopeCasting". Im sure the Synoptics will eventually change and I may not score many points with this post, but the post above is "Realistic" and patience is required "to" and "if" we get any real Winter weather this year!

Agree totally with you.

The hopecasting in here has been going on since well before Christmas and of late has been surreal

In reality the models tonight vary by quite a degree but one thing they all agree on is 7 days from now the bulk of UK and Ireland will be snow free and that's the fact. I haven't seen a frost here since the week before Christmas.

Pick of the models tonight is the gfs for at least being consistent in its output

[January Snowstorm]

A big switch in the ECM ensemble maps from this morning, and even bigger from yesterday evening:

It's veryhttp://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

strange the chopping and changing of the GEFS versus ECM ensembles.

For several days the GEFS was completely against any colder solutions with the ECM members more bullish, now the reverse has happened.

In all fairness now Nick we have seen this happen many many times before where one model jumps on board and another gets off. I think what the Met do is take a combination of all, add their own input and run with that

They are fickle beasts these models but nothing that's happened this week is unique from what's gone before

[UV-RAY]

Well maybe all the teleconnections point too a cold spell, but what is becoming evident, is that the models seem to be having none of it. Time will tell of course, but the clock is ticking now, and the prospects of any deep cold seem to be as far away as ever.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The models are amazing at the moment in that they don't seem to be able to cope with what the signals are saying to them. The chopping and changing suggests that FI is shorter than T96 and could b as low as T72.

The ECM seems to me at least to be way over progressive whereas the GFS wants the Atlantic to win. There must be some fundamental differences in the algorithms to have that much difference so close to T0.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Paul
Removed off topic comments.

[cold snap]

its bad news tonight the ecm as things stand is not a outlier and has got very good support.

Ensembles on gfs again are not to bad and show a cluster of intresting runs but as they are in low resolution who know what will happen now

ukmo market leader at present

[nick sussex]

Agree totally with you.

The hopecasting in here has been going on since well before Christmas and of late has been surreal

In reality the models tonight vary by quite a degree but one thing they all agree on is 7 days from now the bulk of UK and Ireland will be snow free and that's the fact. I haven't seen a frost here since the week before Christmas.

Pick of the models tonight is the gfs for at least being consistent in its output

Lol!

Thanks for the good laugh JS, re the consistency of the GFS!

Only yesterday it had the Azores high linking with the high to the east and a flat pattern with no sign of troughing in Europe so thats been just as clueless as the rest of the output.

I don't think anyones promised any snow in here, just reporting on the trends of the models which upto yesterday excluding the GFS had good potential.

Even some of tonights output is good, unfortunately the one model you don't want to wobble is the ECM so thats the reason for the some of the optimism evaporating.

[Zenarcher]

Review on the weather models this evening,

GFS

Tonight the weather models seem to be a bit of a mess with disagreement between all of them as early as 96 hours. The disagreement we are seeing is over the low pressure system moving into the Atlantic. All the models show different ideas for this low. The GFS moves the low over and into South Eastern Greenland. The UKMO and GEM give it some support on this idea. After this and into the end of the month the GFS wants to build up high pressure over the UK it would bring some wintry and cold weather however nothing special.

JMA

Tonight the JMA shows something similar to the ECM, even with the low at 96 hours however it doesn't fully support it. The JMA at 144 hours does show high pressure build up to Greenland but fails with low pressure to the West. After this it shows and gives support to the ECM with a cold pool of air over the UK bringing cold and unsettled weather.

ECM

Its made a change at 96 hours with the low entering the Atlantic this is whats causing the entire outlook afterwards seeming completely different. It then sends the low which gets weaker as it crosses the Atlantic at 120 hours and it eventually fades away as it reaches the UK. Its journey across the Atlantic is disrupting everything around it and doesn't allow the high pressure to build as much towards Greenland like before. It lacks support from all models this evening on this idea, remember yesterday all models plotted a deep depression over Iceland at 72 hours out and the ECM wasn't going for it. Then on its next run it showed the deep depression so it just goes to show even the ECM can make a mistake at 72 hours then it is possible for it to make one at 96 and 120 hours out. The ECM's outlook isn't too great it does show a cold pool of air over the UK but mainly brings wet and windy weather.

GEM

Shows the low at 96 hours extremely similar to the ECM but makes go quickly as it enters the Atlantic this allows the high pressure to move in much more and we get a better ridging in the Atlantic with cold air coming down from the North for the UK. Not a bad run tonight and shows what could happen if the ECM is wrong.

NOGAPS

Keeps hopes high and still shows nice charts although it is known as a model you cannot trust too much and doesn't have great support either sadly. At 144 hours it shows high pressure making a good attempt at blocking meanwhile the UK see's cold weather coming from the North. Although it doesn't have much support the GEM model shows something alike at 144 hours just the high in the Atlantic not positioned as North or strong. The NOGAPS model has been consistent lately on this idea though.

UKMO

Completely disagree's with the other two main models (GFS & ECM) at 96 hours. Its got plenty of high pressure in the Atlantic and cold air just around Scotland. At 120 hours the GFS jumps over to the UKMO and shows the ridging in the Atlantic building up leaving the ECM on its own. At 144 hours the ECM is still on its own meanwhile the GFS shows something similar to the UKMO.

Overall just when the models looked like they were showing something similar the ECM has backed off lets hope its wrong and on its 00z run starts to show something better.

Tonight to Friday: Tonight cold and settled for most but windy across the West. Tuesday will carry on the same theme but only the Northwest seeing windy weather. Wednesday settled in the far South of England elsewhere will be wet and windy with severe gales over Western and Northern Scotland. On Thursday another unsettled day for many a bit windy and getting colder in Scotland. Friday windy across Western parts and elsewhere settled and colder.

Saturday to Monday: On Saturday the winds should ease off but overall still unsettled and cold in the far North of Scotland. Sunday unsettled across England and Wales wet and windy. Winds not as strong over Scotland but much colder. Monday looks unsettled again mainly in the North.

Monday and Beyond: Different ideas from the models tonight we could expect some settled periods with a few short cold spells until the end of the month or we could see unsettled wet and windy weather.

[Stuie]

As an amatuer onlooker, hopecasting, how can this be if members are commenting on daily outputs from models giving them a visual outcome?

[bradymk]

Great GFS Parallel run! and the 12z ECM run is just another possible outcome out of many evolutions that could happen in the next week, its still all unresloved. It's all been very marginal and nothing has really changed just because of one run

[J10]

A big switch in the ECM ensemble maps from this morning, and even bigger from yesterday evening:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

It's very strange the chopping and changing of the GEFS versus ECM ensembles.

For several days the GEFS was completely against any colder solutions with the ECM members more bullish, now the reverse has happened.

The ensembles seem just as volatile as the operational runs.

De Bilt ensembles now out http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

[Isolated Frost]

A fantastic ECM 240 at 500mb. Copyright ECMWF.

In reply to the questions, this is pretty good due to the vortex being smashed up and displaced in the arctic, and the signals for high pressure around greenland, albeit surface hp for the time being. The southerly tracking trough is the main bonus UK-wise however, advocating the initial jet energy into france and iberia and paving the way for the trough to dig into europe allowing a cooler nw flow, perhaps being more amplified as time goes on.

[Frosty.]

Ensembles are fickle, they change daily and up until the Ecm 12z the mood in here was positive, 1 rogue run and suddenly it's negative, there is a lot going on in the background and the models are liable to overreact to something which then causes some of us to overreact, there is still a chance of a colder spell later this week with frosts returning and probably some wintry showers, there is a lot of uncertainty about the models at the end of this week.

[mcweather]

The gfs parallel run is worth a look tonight

http://www.meteociel.fr/...mp;carte=1&runpara=1

[Duane S.]

Agree totally with you.

The hopecasting in here has been going on since well before Christmas and of late has been surreal

In reality the models tonight vary by quite a degree but one thing they all agree on is 7 days from now the bulk of UK and Ireland will be snow free and that's the fact. I haven't seen a frost here since the week before Christmas.

Pick of the models tonight is the gfs for at least being consistent in its output

JS, your frustration is evident but don't let it spill it into misleading statements please. The GFS has been ANYTHING but consistent and you know it. The ECM is hardly covering itself in glory but the GFS is in another league (and I don't mean that in a good way).

It's just another model run, not a good one and could verify of course but keep watching, with this setup expect the unexpected, I keep saying I don't think the models have this right. I think more amplification will be factored in and we could get an entirely different situation showing within days.

[PubliusEnigma]

JS, your frustration is evident but don't let it spill it into misleading statements please. The GFS has been ANYTHING but consistent and you know it. The ECM is hardly covering itself in glory but the GFS is in another league (and I don't mean that in a good way).

It's just another model run, not a good one and could verify of course but keep watching, with this setup expect the unexpected, I keep saying I don't think the models have this right. I think more amplification will be factored in and we could get an entirely different situation showing within days.

To be honest looking at the ensembles this could be the last cold spell of the winter with a return to mild imminent. GFS out to t384 is from an almost exclusively westerly direction. The MO have updated their 16-30 dayer to a generally milder outlook, especially for the NW compared to the cold Feb that they were calling about a week ago. Could this be the only cold spell of the winter ? Would be remarkable if that were the case.

Nothing concrete to clutch at at all in the reliable. With the Russian high just refusing to play ball sending the cold SW into Turkey and Greece as it often does in winter.

[Duane S.]

The gfs parallel run is worth a look tonight

http://www.meteociel.fr/...mp;carte=1&runpara=1

Hi MC, good to see you are keeping the faith! I think Nick's right, many are suffering from 'model fatigue', shame though as the parallel is a very good run indeed!

[WhiteFox]

I think what the Met do is take a combination of all, add their own input and run with that

They are fickle beasts these models but nothing that's happened this week is unique from what's gone before

It's always a good. The Met Office has taken its share of stick from some posters on here in the past, but they will view all model outputs and base their forecasts on what their training and experience tells them looks right. My favourite charts are the fax charts and should be the most reliable for the short time-frames. I'm sure John Holmes would agree that the best forecasts will be based on analysis of all available output using knowledge and experience rather than taking one run of one model and taking it as gospel.

That is why Nick posts the very informative NOAA discussions; I'm sure the Met Office have similar dicussions although they don't make them public.

[Frank Trough]

JS, your frustration is evident but don't let it spill it into misleading statements please. The GFS has been ANYTHING but consistent and you know it. The ECM is hardly covering itself in glory but the GFS is in another league (and I don't mean that in a good way).

It's just another model run, not a good one and could verify of course but keep watching, with this setup expect the unexpected, I keep saying I don't think the models have this right. I think more amplification will be factored in and we could get an entirely different situation showing within days.

since the phantom easterlies it showed a while ago it's been pretty consistent at finding ways not to show a country-wide cold spell. A cold spell that looks even less likely tonight given the output on view (deep FI aside).

[Duane S.]

To be honest looking at the ensembles this could be the last cold spell of the winter with a return to mild imminent. GFS out to t384 is from an almost exclusively westerly direction. The MO have updated their 16-30 dayer to a generally milder outlook, especially for the NW compared to the cold Feb that they were calling about a week ago. Could this be the only cold spell of the winter ? Would be remarkable if that were the case.

Nothing concrete to clutch at at all in the reliable. With the Russian high just refusing to play ball sending the cold SW into Turkey and Greece as it often does in winter.

Would indeed be remarkable if that were to happen PE. Can't rule it out of course. Good news the ens are as fickle as the models though.

[NickR]

Is the GFS parallel due to become the op run on 24 January?

[Frosty.]

A cold spell that looks even less likely tonight given the output on view (deep FI aside).

We are and have been in a cold spell since last friday, temps fell to -10c last night in eastern scotland and will drop to -7c in some parts of the english countryside, tomorrow will also be cold and only wednesday will be mild before it turns cold again so I don't know what you are talking about.

[cold snap]

Hi MC, good to see you are keeping the faith! I think Nick's right, many are suffering from 'model fatigue', shame though as the parallel is a very good run indeed!

i have serious fatigue but this is my hobby and this what i enjoy.by the way nogaps has been best for consistency so far it may be wrong,but not choping and changing like gfs and now the ecm.massive 18z due to roll out please let it show a ensembles member

[winterof79]

Is the GFS parallel due to become the op run on 24 January?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensnh-10-1-192.png?12 You mean this 24th

[Zakos]

Anything could happen next week, cold or mild. But anyone who says gfs has been consisntent , is wrong. Its been a major outlier these last few days, at times even against its own ensembles. The only thing its been consistent with is its determination to go agaisnt every model...