Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[TonyH]

A right old ding-dong between the colder/less cold air atm, edged back up to 2.7c currently, most definitely rain.

Edited January 29, 2012 by TonyH

[worldairgroup]

just been checking all of south east wales traffic cameras, and cant see to seem any precipitation at the usual spots, ie dowlais top, storey arms. obviously radars playing mind games LOL i think best chance is after 5/6pm today.

[Cymro]

A lot of depression on here good gosh, tonight's the time it will start getting interesting I'm currently in Aberystwyth on the coast and its only 2.9 degrees here which for a coastal area is quite cold, and the precip is definetly getting heavier and a lot more wintry. Meanwhile mother has duly noted that it's very icy back home with freezing rain and the odd flake frown in but its to light atm.

[CLH the red dragon]

just been checking all of south east wales traffic cameras, and cant see to seem any precipitation at the usual spots, ie dowlais top, storey arms. obviously radars playing mind games LOL i think best chance is after 5/6pm today.

Yes, interesting isn't it. Met shows "rainfall" on the radar, but there's nothing. Certainly no "heavy rain" here at the moment.

Looks like it's damp in Carmarthen and the west.

[nwales]

Anyone in the Llangollen area or Snowdonia area tell me if there is any snow around?

Heading into Wales today.

Thanks

I've been for a drive from the Ceiriog Valley through Chirk and up the A5 through Llangollen, Corwen and up to Cerrigydrudion - not a flake of snow or drop of rain falling despite what the radar says. Caught a glimpse of the mountains in Snowdonia looking very white through the mist, also the mountains towards Bala.

Temp here is now 2.6c

[Gavla]

I think later on will be our best chance also, is the predicted ppn alot lighter than anticipated by the models? Is this the block working?

[benb]

Are they downplaying this id love someone with more knowledge to tell me that its going to be upgraded and we should expect

20cm minimum? Is that too greedy lol

I think you'd need 20mm of rain to equal 20cm of snow. These are a prediction for the total over the next 48hrs or so, to give an idea of what's likely/possible.

Country Tracks- cold and dry- but no one really knows how next week'll pan out. I wouldn't be surprised to see troughs embedded in the easterly flow and very possibly further fronts encroaching from the SW.

Patience is required for today's snow: it's not like a dynamic cold front arriving from the N/NW: it's going to be a gradual change over a period of hours.

Edited January 29, 2012 by benb

[soupsurfer7]

Still sleety drizzle here for the past few hours. The ppt really needs to get heavier for a chance of some snowflakes

UPDATE: The sleet is getting heavier and looking more snow like !!!

Edited January 29, 2012 by soupsurfer7

[worldairgroup]

Yes, interesting isn't it. Met shows "rainfall" on the radar, but there's nothing. Certainly no "heavy rain" here at the moment.

Looks like it's damp in Carmarthen and the west.

yes certainly is a strange one, but lets wait until later when it gets darker and temps start dropping.

[soupsurfer7]

It's now officially snowing here!!! Right on queue yay so happy!

[Mark Neal.]

Good Luck Everyone in Wales

[Jayfromcardiff]

It's now officially snowing here!!! Right on queue yay so happy!

Cool mate, send it this way, not seen a snowflake all winter haha.

[mickeyflyn]

no change here in newport at 65 m asl still 2 deg c and slight easterly breez. feels rew though. i was out mountain biking yesterday at cwmcarn mountain bike centre,there was patches of laying snow above 1000 ft .today feels much colder !!

[beatpete]

met office warnings upgraded to amber for heads of valleys and beacons

[nwales]

Met Office warning now has me just outside the yellow zone

[Cwmbran Eira]

Met Office warning now has me just outside the yellow zone

I'm on the black bit around the orange.

[Bobby]

Yay I'm in the amber zone. Bit dissapointed that the precipitation seems lighter, shorter lasting and not as far East as forecast yesterday, not so optimistic now. But we'll see what happens.

[Cymro]

Back home is in the amber zone

[Gavla]

It's now officially snowing here!!! Right on queue yay so happy!

glad its snowing for you spread the love across wales please. Amber warning is a rather small area and what counts as hilly above what height?

[CLH the red dragon]

yes certainly is a strange one, but lets wait until later when it gets darker and temps start dropping.

Absolutely, this is one of those days where you DON'T want the snow to arrive. Best wait till 4-5 o clock. Dark and cold. Fingers crossed.

[Snowmadsam]

Now in amber zone YAY..guys you never know Irish sea could pep things up..

[keithlucky]

Yay I'm in the amber zone. Bit dissapointed that the precipitation seems lighter, shorter lasting and not as far East as forecast yesterday, not so optimistic now. But we'll see what happens.

Yes Barb as the front tries to make any easterly progress its weakening. Edited January 29, 2012 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

AMBER warning - Meto - 10cms is still 10cms and should open our account with the snow nicely in Wales - with all this lovely cold air about I'm sure later on this week that will be added to - 10cms should definitely give us a lovely "xmas" snowy look to the scenery - sounds good to me! - gotta start somewhere and build to the "feet" of snow in time - if this really stupidly cold air gets in - when the atlantic trys to shift it with it's fronts further bouts of snow will occur! - GREAT START for WALES

Edited January 29, 2012 by andymusic

[J10]

Guide to the week's weather: Sunday 29th January to Saturday 4th February (west Wales and central Midlands specific)

Headline: Cold and often frosty. Potential for snow at times, becoming very cold later

A tricky one to pin detail on this week, in fact even the next 24 hours is problematic. This is because the UK spends the coming week at or close to the boundary between bitterly cold air that will be over the Continent, and milder Atlantic air which will attempt to push in, more especially early this week, and perhaps again next weekend. An entirely cold to very cold week ahead, plenty of hard frosts from mid week, and with some snow at times in places too.

This cold versus mild air 'battle' begins tonight across Wales. Low pressure west of Ireland is attempting to push rain fronts east during Sunday night and early on Monday, however their progress would seem to be blocked by the intense wall of cold high pressure sat over Scandinavia and western Russia presently.

I anticipate that the rain falling over west Wales this morning will tend to turn to sleet and snow later on Sunday, and more especially during tonight. It's very difficult to judge which areas will be affected by this snow- with many different factors to weigh up- although low lying coastal areas are more likely to stick with rain or sleet, whereas if your inland, and especially above 100 to 200 metres then a snowy night may well occur, so that places such as Lampeter, could have a decent covering come Monday morning. A dry, frosty night for the central Midlands, as the fronts are not expected to reach Warwickshire, bar the odd flurry later in the night.

A cold, raw and cloudy day on Monday, the precipitation dying out during the morning, although still some rain, sleet or snow at times further down into SW Wales. Maximum temperatures just 1- 3c. Another attempt at a milder push may happen during Tuesday, with the threat of more sleet or snow into west Wales perhaps, and another cold, cloudy and raw day, but perhaps brighter for the Midlands.

Wednesday onwards, very cold easterly winds infiltrate England and Wales, courtesy of the high ridging in from Scandinavia. Even colder to end the week, but mostly dry with sunny periods, just the chance of a light snow flurry reaching the Midlands. Severe overnight frosts. By Friday temperatures should remain below zero day and night, from as low -10c over west Wales only reaching -2c in the afternoon. One caveat, is that the UK Met Office model shows less cold air into Wales on Friday, such is the range of possibilities at that stage.

Next weekend is almost impossible to predict this far out in this set up. but the very cold air may well hang on, with more in the way of snow showers by then, and perhaps another 'battleground' scenario and heavy snow into Wales! Spare a thought for the Alps next weekend, for where GFS is predicting -40c!!

If you get this right, you should be head hunted by the Met Office, it really is a nightmare to forecast, but well done for even trying to get this week right.

[Scarlet_Snow]

It has rained quite moderately here for the past half hour or so, shame the temperature wasn't 4 degrees lower has started to drop a little though