London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread.

[Met4Cast]

I for one wouldn't blame them. It's one thing to trundle out some charts, words, forecasts or opinions on a weather forum with only your peers to discuss it with, a completely different thing when those words or forecasts may mean the property or lives of people in the UK

Surely over playing it and ramping it up would be a better option so if the worst does happen, people aren't caught out? Though, do this too many times and people stop taking note of forecasts I suppose, very tricky balance to get

[Snow Queen one]

Hi Snow Raven no it did not go that far lol I had to smile they did not mention Thursday and Friday on either the main weather or the regional.

[snow raven]

Hi Snow Raven no it did not go that far lol I had to smile they did not mention Thursday and Friday on either the main weather or the regional.

I thought that might have been the case! It's not actually unusual for them to just do a forecast for the next day or two most of the year, so I wouldn't read into anything at the moment.

[Upgrade]

Did the forecast go out as far as Thursday/Friday?

No - just said Wednesday night would be "very cold indeed" and then did a point summary saying :

This week ;

1) cold

2 ) mainly dry.

3 ) hard frosts.

+ "disappointing for snow fans" .........

[snow raven]

No - just said Wednesday night would be "very cold indeed" and then did a point summary saying :

This week ;

1) cold

2 ) mainly dry.

3 ) hard frosts.

+ "disappointing for snow fans" .........

The weather can change you know :lol:

[blackprince]

Hi can someone answer a question for me please?

For a streamer to affect us on the North East coast (Herne Bay,Whitstable) what would it be called ?and or would we just be relying on the channel/lower north sea to give us some form of streamer?

[abruzzi spur]

No - just said Wednesday night would be "very cold indeed" and then did a point summary saying :

This week ;

1) cold

2 ) mainly dry.

3 ) hard frosts.

+ "disappointing for snow fans" .........

That last line is a bit of a disappointment - to expressly say that, rather than cite 'uncertainty' or say to 'keep watching the forecasts' suggests a high degree of confidence at this stage on the mostly dry theme. Sounds as though they are not too keen on the 06z model output today.

Mind you, I suppose 'mainly dry' could be a bit of a hedge - if 90% of the country is dry but the south east corner (picking, you understand, a purely random example) were to be buried under a metre of snow then 'mostly dry' would probably still cover it!

AS

[tonbridgemole]

MET OFFICE UPDATE

UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Feb 2012 to Monday 13 Feb 2012:

Turning unsettled and less cold from the northwest during the weekend as a band of rain moves across the country. There is a risk of rain falling as snow on the leading edge and also falling on frozen surfaces giving a transient widespread ice risk. Heading into the first full of week of February though, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast with a risk of the colder easterly conditions returning at least across the east and south east. The most likely scenario is for further weather systems to push in from the west but stalling over the country giving an increasing risk of snow in central and eastern parts, especially over higher ground. Temperatures probably below normal in the east but near normal at times in the west.

Updated: 1113 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 28 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average

Updated: 1136 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

[Icebox]

Hi can someone answer a question for me please?

For a streamer to affect us on the North East coast (Herne Bay,Whitstable) what would it be called ?and or would we just be relying on the channel/lower north sea to give us some form of streamer?

That would be the kent streamer...... fair chance you'll see one later this week.

[JamesC]

Met check is saying Max of -1c from Thursday through to Sunday...........with a bit of snow in there as well.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=gu4&day=3

[blackprince]

Thanks Icebox I will be looking out for one

[abruzzi spur]

MET OFFICE UPDATE

UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Feb 2012 to Monday 13 Feb 2012:

Turning unsettled and less cold from the northwest during the weekend as a band of rain moves across the country. There is a risk of rain falling as snow on the leading edge and also falling on frozen surfaces giving a transient widespread ice risk. Heading into the first full of week of February though, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast with a risk of the colder easterly conditions returning at least across the east and south east. The most likely scenario is for further weather systems to push in from the west but stalling over the country giving an increasing risk of snow in central and eastern parts, especially over higher ground. Temperatures probably below normal in the east but near normal at times in the west.

Updated: 1113 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 28 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average

Updated: 1136 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

The update for the 4th to 13th is pretty different today and suggests old-style battleground events from the 1970s. I suddenly feel the urge to adopt a 3 day week, engineer some power cuts and listen to The Sweet whilst enjoying a nice slice of Battenburg.

AS

[Coast]

The update for the 4th to 13th is pretty different today and suggests old-style battleground events from the 1970s. I suddenly feel the urge to adopt a 3 day week, engineer some power cuts and listen to The Sweet whilst enjoying a nice slice of Battenburg.

AS

Well apart from the 3 days weeks and power cuts. * dashes off to find some snow proof loon pants and a set of huge sideburns*

[BLUNT]

On the Fax charts there was a bump of high pressure forming, will that affect anything? ie wind direction changing? changing the Easterly?

Does this mean we havent a clue?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 28 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average

Updated: 1136 on Mon 30 Jan 2012

Edited January 30, 2012 by BLUNT

[Marie]

Cloudy here ,temp 4.9c and dewpoint is 0.4,not seen a snow flake yet but am hoping too see some by the weekend

[Upgrade]

That last line is a bit of a disappointment - to expressly say that, rather than cite 'uncertainty' or say to 'keep watching the forecasts' suggests a high degree of confidence at this stage on the mostly dry theme. Sounds as though they are not too keen on the 06z model output today.

Mind you, I suppose 'mainly dry' could be a bit of a hedge - if 90% of the country is dry but the south east corner (picking, you understand, a purely random example) were to be buried under a metre of snow then 'mostly dry' would probably still cover it!

AS

indeed. and forecasts do change quite quickly. remember 2010 when "events" seemingly popped out of nowhere, day after day. "this little feature" "that little feature" seemed to surprise everyone - and it kept on coming. hopefully the same this time !

[Coast]

But Friday is the day we should be waiting for with respect to current GFS output:

[abruzzi spur]

Well apart from the 3 days weeks and power cuts. * dashes off to find some snow proof loon pants and a set of huge sideburns*

Are you saying that these are not currently "in"?! I shall have to rethink my whole look now.....

Edited January 30, 2012 by abruzzi spur

[Tom Montalbano]

Re streamers. I generally find the following applies.

ENE wind. Poss Thames streamer. Tends to initiate between Southend (exc, Feb 09, Sorry Paul) and Isle of Grain.

Tracking WSW across NW Kent/S.Essex on into parts of E.London, S.E.London, S.London and parts of Surrey, mainly north of M25.

Stronger streamers can get through to West Surrey but tend to be lighter once they get past the Meridian.

NE wind.Streamers clip into Eastern most parts of Essex but especially into Mid Kent coast east of Medway towns say to Faversham or so, then SW into E.Sussex as far as Hastings/Eastbourne. You tend to get some showers east of this line too but main stream in areas mentioned. Scattered lighter showers likely break through to W.Essex, W.Kent, sometimes as far as London.

NNE/N wind. Favours streamer forming east of Canterbury and can give areas such as Dover/Folkestone a real pasting, esp to the E.Kent Downs.

Of course these areas will be more or less affected depending on other factors such as strength of flow and exact angle of flow.

As stated above, more or less comes down to radar watching to pick up where streamers are likely to form.

http://www.secbuild.co.uk/map2.jpg

Regards,

Tom

Edited January 30, 2012 by TomSE20

[A Wintry Mix]

Saturday currently stacking up to be a biggy

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Sat 04 Feb at 12am GMT

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

As usual Thanet not seeing the snow! lol

[Coast]

As usual Thanet not seeing the snow! lol

:lol: I think it's the general idea that you should be content with, I'd be surprised if Thanet didn't get anything when the rest of Kent was being pummelled! All of these indications should be taken as just that, a nice trend that most of us hope pans out.

[Amanzi]

Well apart from the 3 days weeks and power cuts. * dashes off to find some snow proof loon pants and a set of huge sideburns*

Oh I do love loon pants and sideburns! :rofl:

[john mac]

Im hopeing that the streamer has enough about it to get far enough north to hit me. Sometimes there great sometimes they miss and go just to the south of me.

[A Wintry Mix]

:lol: I think it's the general idea that you should be content with, I'd be surprised if Thanet didn't get anything when the rest of Kent was being pummelled! All of these indications should be taken as just that, a nice trend that most of us hope pans out.

Given whats being forcast i would be gobsmacked if Thanet did not see any snow, But this corner seems to behave differently to the rest of the south east, even driving to Sandwich you can see the difference in snow levels.

[danm]

Streamers have their overwhelming good points, but also a bad point.

The bad point is that, because streamers form in bands, they can be very localised, with some areas getting a pasting, whilst other areas not far away just get a dusting or nothing at all.

The good thing about streamers, and why so many of us love them (when we get them and don't miss out!) is that they can last for hours, if not days. If you can get some convection going with enough atmospheric instability and you get the wind flow in a favourable direction for your location then you can see a stream of endless snow that lasts for as long as the wind stays in the same direction. Much better than frontal snow, that usually gives you an hour or two of snow, and then clears away. Also, streamers usually set up in a very cold, unstable easterly airflow for our region, which most of the time minimises any marginality - except maybe for those who are on the coast. Battleground snow events always run the risk of increased marginality as milder air gets into the mix.

Get a good streamer going and you never know when the snow will end. With a frontal snow band, you know when the snow will stop.

Edited January 30, 2012 by danm