The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[XENA]

Looking good for my area on Saturday/Sunday as long as there is no more Easterly movement

We also had a light snow shower earlier and quite dark out to my NE now too

[andy_leics22]

I still don't trust the BBC with this event for Saturday, never again after the mistake they made a few years ago..

Anyone remember this? That was 12 hours before the actual event and what happened? it started off as sleet for about 5 minutes and then lashed it down with rain for hours,. The only place that saw a bit of snow was the pennines, one of the worst forecasts i've ever seen.

[A.J]

It's funny how just the slightest changes in output and 'on the day' weather could make such a difference come saturday into sunday......There is a pool of thought that the model output is underestimating the strength of the block and associated cold pool (I'm in the camp) whilst others believe the model output is overestimating the strength of the block, leaving a fine line in between....

.It's feasible that the atlantic frontal system could bulldoze straight through the HP ridge before stalling in the North Sea giving fleeting snow into an all rain event for all of us...

It's also feasible that the block repells the attack and as the frontal systems attempt to erode the ridge of High Pressure in-situ, they get eroded and thrown back west, so far west that the midland region stays mostly dry, any PPN stays out over Ireland & West Wales......

It's also feasible that the Atlantic system will make some inroads into the HP ridge giving a snow or snow to rain event for all of us (which is favourite based on current model output)...

What I'm trying to point out is that this forthcoming passage of weather is an absolute forecasters nightmare, no professional meteorologist can be 100% certain what's going to happen, so with that in mind, by all means, follow the model outputs (especially the hi-res outputs) for a rough guidance, but it's going to come down to nowcasting and radar watching on the day as the slightest variance in frontal orientation, PPN intensity etc etc could make one hell of a difference!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well it looks like the line of Snow-Rain is right above my head, Staffordshire. Im going to stay as positive as possible - but would I be surprised to see 3 snowflakes and then pure rain? Nope - and if it goes that way, just to pre-warn you my moan levels are going to be long and for many days.

Same Radders......my patience is going to be severely tested I think......it is already

[Nick L]

I still don't trust the BBC with this event for Saturday, never again after the mistake they made a few years ago..

Anyone remember this? That was 12 hours before the actual event and what happened? it started off as sleet for about 5 minutes and then lashed it down with rain for hours,. The only place that saw a bit of snow was the pennines, one of the worst forecasts i've ever seen.

Oh gawd I remember that one. Pretty much EVERYONE on here knew that forecast was a bit suspect, and we were right.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh gawd I remember that one. Pretty much EVERYONE on here knew that forecast was a bit suspect, and we were right.

Hahaha yes I remember the rain pelting down during that 'event'

[Nick L]

Hahaha yes I remember the rain pelting down during that 'event'

I went to bed after watching the 10.30pm forecast thinking "they must know what they're talking about" and being convinced I would be off school the next day. Gutted wasn't the word!

[andy_leics22]

I went to bed after watching the 10.30pm forecast thinking "they must know what they're talking about" and being convinced I would be off school the next day. Gutted wasn't the word!

I stayed up till about 2am and I think Blizzards was on here till then too, when it started off as heavy rain in Birmingham I knew then that it was game over by the time it reached me :lol: On that chart you'd think that Wales and 80% of England saw some heavy snow for a time but the reality was.. Only about 5% of England saw snow and that was above 300m in the Pennines!

[Barbmac]

Was -4.0^oC overnight here, still at -1.0^oC now, has clouded over almost completely in the last hour, clouds coming from the East. Wonder if we'll get a snow flurry this far west?

[A.J]

just posted this in the London & SE thread just to keep them on their toes and wind 'em up a bit! :lol:

Up here in the Midlands we're so looking forward to sunday on the forum, when we're plastered with meters of snow and the SE is bone dry as the block repels the atlantic attack!

Yes, to spice things up, it's time for a bit of inter-regional rivalry...lol

[Nick L]

You just know the home counties and the London area are going to get hammered AGAIN! They've been incredibly lucky the past few winters.

[MKN]

metoffice warnings have the west midlands under warnings of snow on saturday, presumably expecting it to arrive further east on sunday

Issued at - 02 Feb 2012, 12:43

Valid from - 04 Feb 2012, 12:00

Valid to - 04 Feb 2012, 23:59

A band of snow is expected to move slowly across England and Wales during Saturday afternoon and evening. Accumulations of snow of around 5cm are likely in places; this includes low lying areas. The public are advised that some travel disruption may result, and should pay close attention to forecasts as the event approaches. Snow is like to turn to sleet then rain in Wales and more western parts of England later on Saturday.

Edited February 2, 2012 by SnowTornado

[MKN]

And for sunday...

Issued at - 02 Feb 2012, 12:46

Valid from - 05 Feb 2012, 00:00

Valid to - 05 Feb 2012, 12:00

A band of snow will continue to move slowly eastwards across England during the first half of Sunday. This may be heavy initially but will tend to die out during Sunday morning. Total accumulations from this snow event are likely to be of order 5-10cm in many places; this includes low lying areas. The public are advised that this is likely to lead to some travel disruption, and should pay close attention to forecasts as the event approaches

[A.J]

you beat me to it ST...nice to see though!

[MKN]

Looks about right based on the output now, areas not under the warning sunday will presumably have a high chance of seeing snow turn back to rain. Looks good for a large portion of the midlands though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks about right based on the output now, areas not under the warning sunday will presumably have a high chance of seeing snow turn back to rain. Looks good for a large portion of the midlands though.

I'm shocked that the western extent of the Sunday warning is that far west TBH(only 30 miles east of here).......looks like they have some data which suggests the possibility of this being much further west.

[A.J]

and saturday's warning map...

image © Met Office

light snow shower here currently

Edited February 2, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Nick L]

and saturday's warning map...

image © Met Office

For a paltry 5cm!

[snow freak]

met office finally put the warnings out for the weekend..woohoo!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

For a paltry 5cm!

Woah....lol 5cm is towards the top end of what we ever see here. Last Dec and Jan 2010 only gave us 5cm maximum snow depths

[Glacier Point]

indeed, a point south and east of Birmingham could well benefit from the expected stalling of the front and the peak time of intensity. First stab from the Met (probably MOGREPS lead) gives total accumulations of 5-10cms widely. I would take a stab at somewhere east Warwickshire / Northants coming off best here, but wouldn't be suprised to see this shift west a touch.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the latest BBC just now says Cold Air Wins .................

see Image .

[MKN]

I imagine the area in the sweet spot where it remains as snow throughout whilst being as far west as possible will see more like 15cm+ highly unlikely theyl say more than the usual 5-10cm at this stage, infact i was expecting 2-5cm or 1-3cm like usual along with the lines heavy snow

[A.J]

For a paltry 5cm!

It's a typo Nick, a mistake by one of their foreign exchange students...It's supposed to read 'accumulations of 5 Meters'! :smiliz19:

[If Wishes made Weather]

As we have often said these subjective terms by the Met don't really help. What then is "heavy"? I understand though that the Uk definition of blizzard is less, for example, than that commonly accepted elsewhere.