North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[cfallon]

Good fancy coming doing mine on Sunday then.

That pitiful bit we had on Friday night was too little to shovel off so it's still there in the bit where the car doesn't go.

If nothing else it shows how cold it's been since.

No probs, if it means we get snow lol! Desperate times

[Cheese Rice]

I reckon the front would be delayed by about 24 hours, this usually happens the closer we get to it. The block is always underestimated by the models.

About the positioning I really do not know, I can't see it staying out far west but it seems unlikely to sweep through the whole of the UK.

Either way I'm siding with snow throughout over mainland UK, even if the front stalls what some may say too far west I reckon it would stay as snow, surface cold is likely to undercut the front. So for example places like Liverpool I can see seeing snow even if uppers rise to 0.c.

Edited January 31, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Backtrack]

I reckon the front would be delayed by about 24 hours, this usually happens the closer we get to it. The block is always underestimated by the models.

About the positioning I really do not know, I can't see it staying out far west but it seems unlikely to sweep through the whole of the UK.

Either way I'm siding with snow throughout over mainland UK, even if the front stalls what some may say too far west I reckon it would stay as snow, surface cold is likely to undercut the front. So for example places like Liverpool I can see seeing snow even if uppers rise to 0.c.

See this is where the problem lies.

Ok, uppers of 0C, you'd get snow falling from the cloud, but melting as it hits the warmer pool of air sat on top of the denser, colder air at the surface. If the uppers rise to 0C, it will without a doubt be freezing rain.

[Cheese Rice]

See this is where the problem lies.

Ok, uppers of 0C, you'd get snow falling from the cloud, but melting as it hits the warmer pool of air sat on top of the denser, colder air at the surface. If the uppers rise to 0C, it will without a doubt be freezing rain.

Perhaps down to geography but I've seen snow with uppers in excess 0.c at sea level under an Atlantic front with cold air undercutting.

[Backtrack]

Perhaps down to geography but I've seen snow with uppers in excess 0.c at sea level under an Atlantic front with cold air undercutting.

Yeah so have I.

I'm wondering if the intensity of the precipitation could also lower the temperature of a warmer pool of air sat just above the surface (around 500m up) as evaporative cooling?

[SP1986]

I think too much is being made of the breakdown, it looks like a typical breakdown to me, there is no evidence that dewpoints will hold down.. this will be a straightforward snow-rain change. The Azores High buckles against the block initially, but this you would expect, but then it flattens out, which is also what you would expect.

Fairly run of the mill stuff.

As for tonight, well the cloud has gone, and the wind has gone, and what we have now its calm clear night where temperatures will fall to maybe -4 to -6C by dawn.

But not in Runcorn where they will remain at +1C

[Backtrack]

I think too much is being made of the breakdown, it looks like a typical breakdown to me, there is no evidence that dewpoints will hold down.. this will be a straightforward snow-rain change. The Azores High buckles against the block initially, but this you would expect, but then it flattens out, which is also what you would expect.

Fairly run of the mill stuff.

As for tonight, well the cloud has gone, and the wind has gone, and what we have now its calm clear night where temperatures will fall to maybe -4 to -6C by dawn.

But not in Runcorn where they will remain at +1C

The BBC seem to think this is a very complicated battle scenario, I'd tend to agree too.

Leave my temperature out of this! It's sat nicely at 0.0C right now with a DP of -3.3C, am I beating you?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think too much is being made of the breakdown, it looks like a typical breakdown to me, there is no evidence that dewpoints will hold down.. this will be a straightforward snow-rain change. The Azores High buckles against the block initially, but this you would expect, but then it flattens out, which is also what you would expect.

Fairly run of the mill stuff.

As for tonight, well the cloud has gone, and the wind has gone, and what we have now its calm clear night where temperatures will fall to maybe -4 to -6C by dawn.

But not in Runcorn where they will remain at +1C

LOL nothing like a bit of a reality check. In all fairness though Stephen, the ECM set up would maintain the snow for the duration of the 'event' as would the GEM.

[Backtrack]

LOL nothing like a bit of a reality check. In all fairness though Stephen, the ECM set up would maintain the snow for the duration of the 'event' as would the GEM.

18z to follow suite.

[SP1986]

0.0C BT, is that actual or after adjustments?

0.5C here

I can't see the ECM maintaining for the duration, and even if the snow does last most of the duration, the milder air would infiltrate the next day.

The snow here would occur, and I think we would possibly keep a fair few hours of it.

But by here you really are losing time, the snow would turn to normal rain here.

Truthfully Ive never seen freezing rain in my life, it would be a first.

[Cheese Rice]

I think too much is being made of the breakdown, it looks like a typical breakdown to me, there is no evidence that dewpoints will hold down.. this will be a straightforward snow-rain change. The Azores High buckles against the block initially, but this you would expect, but then it flattens out, which is also what you would expect.

Well its certainly not what the met think, 50/50 chance of disruptive snowfall and cold weather persisting.

Edited January 31, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Weather-history]

I think too much is being made of the breakdown, it looks like a typical breakdown to me, there is no evidence that dewpoints will hold down.. this will be a straightforward snow-rain change. The Azores High buckles against the block initially, but this you would expect, but then it flattens out, which is also what you would expect.

Fairly run of the mill stuff.

You say fairly run of the mill stuff but how many such breakdowns have you actually experienced in your lifetime?

[Backtrack]

0.0C BT, is that actual or after adjustments?

0.5C here

0.5C on the roof station (0.0C with adjustments)

0.3C on the yard station (-0.2C with adjustments)

[SP1986]

You say fairly run of the mill stuff but how many such breakdowns have you actually experienced in your lifetime?

You say fairly run of the mill stuff but how many such breakdowns have you actually experienced in your lifetime?

I have seen them before - they don't favour the coast here, so maybe my view is a little IMBY, they do tend to favour inland though to be fair.

[Cheshire Freeze]

0.0C BT, is that actual or after adjustments?

0.5C here

I can't see the ECM maintaining for the duration, and even if the snow does last most of the duration, the milder air would infiltrate the next day.

The snow here would occur, and I think we would possibly keep a fair few hours of it.

But by here you really are losing time, the snow would turn to normal rain here.

Truthfully Ive never seen freezing rain in my life, it would be a first.

Freezing rain....ahhhhh we had some brutal freezing rain last year between the late November/mid December cold spells.....I'll tell you this now, it's no exaggeration to say it was like a skating rink....there must have been inch thick ice deposited in some places round here- almost impossible to walk on the pavements safely when it's like that.

[kold weather]

You say fairly run of the mill stuff but how many such breakdowns have you actually experienced in your lifetime?

Yeah far from run of the mill stuff. You have a weak front which is boosted by a shortwave developing, but at ther same time the surface air is real cold and its rather rare for an Atlantic warm front to be running into dew points of -6/7C. That screams significant snowfall and once it settles the Albedo effect/Evap cooling will keep the whole going longer than the synoptics and uppers would normally suggest.

[iand61]

You say fairly run of the mill stuff but how many such breakdowns have you actually experienced in your lifetime?

What we could do with is a Feb 1979 failed type of breakdown.

Plenty of snow blown about by plenty of wind with plenty more cold waiting in the wings and not a sniff of rain.

[Backtrack]

Yeah far from run of the mill stuff. You have a weak front which is boosted by a shortwave developing, but at ther same time the surface air is real cold and its rather rare for an Atlantic warm front to be running into dew points of -6/7C. That screams significant snowfall and once it settles the Albedo effect/Evap cooling will keep the whole going longer than the synoptics and uppers would normally suggest.

Kold, my only concern would be that the milder Atlantic air will be sitting on top of the colder air, turning the snow to rain before it reaches the ground, with the embedded surface cold refreezing the rain, creating freezing rain.

Is this likely?

[SP1986]

hmm by the way I'm not suggesting we won't get snowfall, far from it, I think we have the chance of a very significant fall of snow.. I'm challenging the idea that milder air won't change the snow to rain, and bring milder air in. The Met-office say that milder air will make inrodes to north and west Britain, which is us, so I would expect, with a change to westerly airflow, at least the coastal areas will lose the real cold.

[Liam J]

A slight rise in temp over the last 10 mins to -2.6c after touching -3.3c. Still very cold.

A chart from weatheronline showing the minimum temps last night over the NW, notice St Bees Head situated right on the Cumbrian coast which recorded the lowest temp excluding the high level station @ Great Dun Fell which touched -6.0c. Also Hawarden down to -5.0c

Due to the wide scatter of the weather stations then no doubt many locations could have reached lower than these values, but we shall never know.

Edited January 31, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Temperature stalled on 0.0C WHY DO YOU DO THIS TO ME?!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Temperature stalled on 0.0C WHY DO YOU DO THIS TO ME?!

-1.1 here and falling

Wouldn't be surprised to see -4/-5 by the early hours

Edited January 31, 2012 by CreweCold

[Backtrack]

-1.1 here and falling

Rubbing it in. WHY DO YOU DO THIS TO ME?!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Rubbing it in. WHY DO YOU DO THIS TO ME?!

-1.2 now lol

[Backtrack]

-1.2 now lol

I'm moving to Greenland.