London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - II

[abruzzi spur]

Just saw the BBC forecast Matt Betts just said there are lots of people getting over excited about a few flurries of Snow. it will be getting colder and a interesting developing feature for the weekend spreading south with Snow, didnt mention about getting milder behind it!! could be interesting??

Looks from this like Darren Bett and Matt Taylor have had a love child! I am very happy for them and so should we all be, particularly if he keeps forecasting along those lines.

AS

Edited January 31, 2012 by abruzzi spur

[Paul Sherman]

Not sure that a Thames streamer is in progress. Certainly convective showers are forming in the north sea and pushing SWwards in the Thames estuary - that's pretty plain to see on any of the precip radars.

It is not even convection - Just areas of sleet mixed in with the stratocumulus. Once I see a Cb or some convection I will alert you all

[Jason H]

What a pathetic winter this is turning out to be. Finally get some cold (although nowhere near as severe as they were predicting) and then it all goes pear shaped with no appreciable snow in the forecast for the future. I think this winter will go down as one of the most boring in recent years. No snow to speak of and consistently mild and rainy. I give up with winters in this country. It seems all we can guarantee is that they will be mild and rainy. Any hopes of snow are only dashed and I think this is only going to get worse over the next decade or so. I wish I could emigrate to Canada. I hate the UK weather.

Wow, that's a serious rant. Keep on smiling. We've had two or three great winters with heavy snow and cold winds. You have to expect a milder winter from time to time. Although, it's hardly wam is it?

[Lauren]

We got snizzle!

Fo'shizzle.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Does Yamkin work for Croydon Council?

Think I will be asking for my tax back!

[snow freak]

sorry about the rant, but it is just so frustrating in this country. Even 1 or 2 days of guaranteed snow each year (out of 365) would be enough, but no, we either get a winter with a lot of cold and snow (2010) or a year with nothing. It goes from one extreme to another. Although saying that, although we got the cold last December, the snowfall wasn't anything to get really excited about. Probably had about 2 inches throughout. Hardly snowmageddon.

[abruzzi spur]

Does Yamkin work for Croydon Council?

Think I will be asking for my tax back!

too late - all spent on overtime for the gritters last night!

[username home]

going to be snowed if it continues at this rate

...in 2076!!!!

[Coast]

too late - all spent on overtime for the gritters last night!

+ 1, just thinking how the lucky so and so's got some great bonus last night for little work!!!

[Suburban Streamer]

as much as i would love there to be a streamer or even a proper snow shower, looking at the radar the best we can hope for is snizzle! there is defo not a streamer setting up!

I'm sure Yamkin knows this tho

[Met4Cast]

Heavy snizzle here, heaviest its been so far, ground is soaked though

[Kentish Kiwi]

It is not even convection - Just areas of sleet mixed in with the stratocumulus. Once I see a Cb or some convection I will alert you all

I think there is a bit of a disparity here of our understanding of convection... My understanding of it was the formation of showers due to rising air away from frontal systems. This certainly seems to be the case with those showers pushing in off the north sea. I'm by no means saying the convection is vigirous but it is at least evident in a very slight way. Am I mistaken with this? I don't see how the precipitation is forming out of thin air if it is not convection.

It's also worth noting that while it may be sleet for you on the coast, I'm fairly confident the precipitation will be of snow this far inland. It has been throughout the day so far, well grauple/snizzle anyway, but not sleet.

[londonsnow]

Why have they started gritting in central London? Maybe to rust a few cars..

[Steve C]

I think there is a bit of a disparity here of our understanding of convection... My understanding of it was the formation of showers due to rising air away from frontal systems. This certainly seems to be the case with those showers pushing in off the north sea. I'm by no means saying the convection is vigirous but it is at least evident in a very slight way. Am I mistaken with this? I don't see how the precipitation is forming out of thin air if it is not convection.

It's also worth noting that while it may be sleet for you on the coast, I'm fairly confident the precipitation will be of snow this far inland. It has been throughout the day so far, well grauple/snizzle anyway, but not sleet.

Agreed. Some precipitation, according to radar pictures, moved into Harwich from the North sea and almost immediately died out. Suggests convection from the warmer North Sea to me. Also the radar indicated the precipitation was heavier over open water ( although nothing to get really excited about )

[West Sussex Kate]

Yeah a little sleet here in Billingshurst Sussex.

Temp 1.3c

Edited January 31, 2012 by Westsussex1

[10 Days Away]

Why have they started gritting in central London? Maybe to rust a few cars..

Just s*it scared probably incase they get caught with their pants down again in the rush hour.

Edited January 31, 2012 by TN26

[Jo S]

Heavy snizzle here,freezing cold though,and im in the middle of the country side and always drops 2 degrees lower at night,than my surrounding towns here,so hot water bottles at the ready

[Paul Sherman]

Well obviously we cannot see what is going on above the Stratoform layer above but it is hardly Deep Convection needed in these Streamer situations. Yes things are initiating obviously over the Warmer SST's just off the Coast but I would not expect these to go onto produce Heavy Snow further along the line.

Edit: 1215pm Radar confirms this Imho

[wintermaster]

The reason why there is always a chance wintermaster is that with these synoptics there is always a possibility of streamers setting up. This happened last year and also in Feb 09 that where not really forecast (until 24hrs or so previously). If your in the model thread you will have also read at some point that forecasting snow is nigh on impossible, it depends on a varying number of factors. The facts are to wait for the cold (which is now here/coming) and then wait for the chance of snow. The uppers are easily cold enough for snow, especially once the very cold air arrives on Wednesday. At present we are see small snow showers/graupel showers with uppers of -6c to -7c (that have not been forecast) which look to be building slightly. On Wednesday night we get hit by uppers of around -12c to -13c (atleast) which will create far more convection off the north sea than we are seeing today. This COULD lead to heavy snowfall, IF other factors fall into place.

This chart shows the predicted wind direction at this time.

http://cdn.nwstatic....6/42/ukwind.png

This would condusive to a Kent streamer (not thames streamer as the wind had a northerly component to it and is not a complete easterly).

As always, I maybe wrong!!!!

EDIT - Another point to note is that the chart shows that the wind strength will be relatively strong. Around 30mph coming of the North Sea, this again would be condusive towards Lake effect snow i.e. some type of streamer.

http://en.wikipedia....ake_effect_snow

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my post. I am a novice i have been following this site for about 5 years. I really hope your right.

[Reefseeker]

+ 1, just thinking how the lucky so and so's got some great bonus last night for little work!!!

Following on from yesterday's 'experiment' for snow in SE at lunch time today, I can report what may be snizzle/graupel falling in Uxbridge; looks to be clearing now.

[Suburban Streamer]

Why have they started gritting in central London? Maybe to rust a few cars..

because its gonna be -1 in london tonight wen the clouds clear so icy roads poss

[Coast]

Following on from yesterday's 'experiment' for snow in SE at lunch time today, I can report what may be snizzle/graupel falling in Uxbridge; looks to be clearing now.

It's a start anyway! little trees and acorns.....

Netweather extra radar actually doing quite well with both location and type of precip, judging by the reports here today

[Kentish Kiwi]

Well obviously we cannot see what is going on above the Stratoform layer above but it is hardly Deep Convection needed in these Streamer situations. Yes things are initiating obviously over the Warmer SST's just off the Coast but I would not expect these to go onto produce Heavy Snow further along the line.

Edit: 1215pm Radar confirms this Imho

Yes, I completely agree. The convection is not at all deep or vigorous (although I never claimed it was) and is unlikely to lead to anything noticeable today, but it is convection - just very weak. Certainly not the type of conditions you need for a real streamer to form.

It seems quite clear that the air is just not unstable enough for anything significant to develop... Have to say I'm quite worried we wont see any real heavy, prolonged snow from this easterly spell and we may be left to deal with conditions similar to today for the remainder of the week. I'll be very glad to be proved wrong though.

Edited January 31, 2012 by Kentish Kiwi

[danm]

Had on and off light snow flurries/graupel since this morning. Mainly damp, but a light dusting on some roofs.

[snow freak]

The gritters are out because they have so much of the bleedin stuff to get rid of as they had stocked up thinking we could get another harsh winter (ha!!). Why they can't save it for the next bad winter I don't know. Okay they may have to wait 10-15 years but hey, at least they will be saving money not having to buy more grit in the meantime.