North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Backtrack]

-2.0c :o

Is it clear up your end?

+1.5C under cloudy skies here.

[Julian]

Everything further West AGAIN on this run.

Can I just remind everyone that on Sunday, that warm front was progged to be over the Eastern Midlands up until 24 hours out, then it changed to Western Midlands, then Wales.

As this front meets the strong block, it's going to stall somewhere over Wales. The Met Office warning for Sunday will cover our region tomorrow too. 20cms widely if we get another shift Westwards. Hopefully the SE will get nothing.

Either way, we're gonna get plastered.

Loving the anti - SE angle.

[Backtrack]

We arent though here in leyland near preston, see above....... Crap!

Chill out, once the ECM shifts it even further Westwards that warning will probably cover us tomorrow. We have a 5cm warning for Saturday btw.

[SP1986]

Its also going to cause major flooding problems wherever it melts!!

1.9C here and cloud cloud cloud..

that cloud should break later though, and allow temperatures to fall to about -6C or -7

[Backtrack]

Loving the anti - SE angle.

Hey, they get all the summer weather. So if they think they're having Winter too, they can do one.

[SparkleS]

Chill out, once the ECM shifts it even further Westwards that warning will probably cover us tomorrow. We have a 5cm warning for Saturday btw.

Upur about 50 miles further south than us though, arent you? Lol...... Taking a chill pill til it snows!!

[Backtrack]

Upur about 50 miles further south than us though, arent you? Lol...... Taking a chill pill til it snows!!

Yeah, I'm further South.

Still, the front is angled nicely for snow. So it'll reach me the same time as it does you. If the worst comes to the worst, back edge snow will be ripe for you as colder uppers undercut from the NW.

[Isolated Frost]

I'd say a there is a chance (albeit not the large, around 50%) of snow in Runcorn- 1 or 2cm's tops with rain and sleet most likely. Quite brief as well-- best snow chances for the south-east of your region- nr the Peaks and the Pennines.

Much of the region will see some snow, but most cities and towns will most likely see 2-5cm with very marginal temps.

[Liam J]

Is it clear up your end?

+1.5C under cloudy skies here.

It's clear atm but I can see cloud in the distance that doesn't seem to get any closer. Briefly touched 2.2c today then it just dropped off like a stone. 0.0c by about 4pm. -2.2c now. Really cold, and it feels bitter.

Current temps @ 17.00, Great Dun Fell -7.0c!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Isolated Frost is lurking. Bet you he says Eastward shift - I dare ya.

I'd say a there is a chance (albeit not the large, around 50%) of snow in Runcorn- 1 or 2cm's tops with rain and sleet most likely. Quite brief as well-- best snow chances for the south-east of your region- nr the Peaks and the Pennines.

Much of the region will see some snow, but most cities and towns will most likely see 2-5cm with very marginal temps.

At the moment, I have a better chance of snow than you do!

If it keeps shifting Westwards it'll die out before it even hits you.

I don't agree with that 50% chance, it's a certainty I'm going to get some snow. You're going against the Met Office - unwise.

It's clear atm but I can see cloud in the distance that doesn't seem to get any closer. Briefly touched 2.2c today then it just dropped off like a stone. 0.0c by about 4pm. -2.2c now. Really cold, and it feels bitter.

Ah, lucky, you've escaped the overcast conditions. Probably a -8C or even -9C for you tonight. Enjoy mate.

[chiffer]

I knew it'd shift more west it felt obvious when you hear reports from the continent and soon to be north Africa

[Cheese Rice]

At the moment, I have a better chance of snow than you do!

If it keeps shifting Westwards it'll die out before it even hits you.

No it won't shift that far west, I expect small shifts west but nothing substantial.

[Isolated Frost]

If it moves any further west we would experience more prolonged, and less marginal snowfall from the front!

I doubt that anything more than 5cm will occur on low-lying areas, in the NW, closer to 8cm in the NE and Yorks, but o/10cm in the pennines and peak district.

Temperatures are very marginal even if you managed another 100 mile shift west, a mixture of sleet and snow, rain at times, is most likely for coastal areas, including Runcorn.

[Backtrack]

No it won't shift that far west, I expect small shifts west but nothing substantial.

Well it shifted more than 200 miles last weekend, why can't it do it again? If anything - the Russian block has increased in strength, it's very plausible.

[Cheese Rice]

Well it shifted more than 200 miles last weekend, why can't it do it again? If anything - the Russian block has increased in strength, it's very plausible.

Because

1.) Its too close to the event

2.) Cross model agreement

3.) NAE is similar to the rest of the models

[Backtrack]

If it moves any further west we would experience more prolonged, and less marginal snowfall from the front!

I doubt that anything more than 5cm will occur on low-lying areas, in the NW, closer to 8cm in the NE and Yorks, but o/10cm in the pennines and peak district.

Temperatures are very marginal even if you managed another 100 mile shift west, a mixture of sleet and snow, rain at times, is most likely for coastal areas, including Runcorn.

The Met Office have issued 2 warnings. One for Saturday, one for Sunday. the Saturday one covers me, including all of N.Wales.

The Sunday one isn't quite over me - it misses by 30 miles. The front will obviously shift West by another 30 miles, leaving the colder air over us longer, resulting in more snow. It won't be all rain for the coast either, you'll see that during a very light Westerly (which this will be) the Irish Sea has little say in the temperatures, they don't modify them at all, especially here, about 20 odd miles from the coast.

I've lived here all my life, trust me.

Because

1.) Its too close to the event

2.) Cross model agreement

3.) NAE is similar to the rest of the models

Last weekend, the FAX's on Friday showed the front hitting the Midlands for Sunday before a correction to N.Wales, I think tonight's models will settle it, roughly.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Backtrack

[Liam J]

Meto have the minimum temp for my location tonight as being -1.0c in the early hours with +1.0c around now @ 18.00... it's -2.5c already, impressive

The rate of fall has slowed down a touch.

UKMO 12z keeps the 850 temps around -5/6c right through, this could be an all snow event, with no real thaw.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72418-model-discussion-chat-and-commentary-1st-feb/page__view__findpost__p__2239396

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Isolated Frost]

BT-- how is it 'obvious that it would shift westwards'?

[gearbox1002]

This will never be nailed down until they day, too many hopes and prays and that's just in the charts.

We get some snow in st Helens, where I live but will be short and sweet, like most people will find.

My phone is optimistic and put heavy snow Tuesday.

[chris78]

Sorry to bang on about my trees.......do we have an idea of how frosty Friday night Saturday morning its going to be?

[Backtrack]

If it moves any further west we would experience more prolonged, and less marginal snowfall from the front!

I doubt that anything more than 5cm will occur on low-lying areas, in the NW, closer to 8cm in the NE and Yorks, but o/10cm in the pennines and peak district.

Temperatures are very marginal even if you managed another 100 mile shift west, a mixture of sleet and snow, rain at times, is most likely for coastal areas, including Runcorn.

A band of snow will continue to move slowly eastwards across England during the first half of Sunday. This may be heavy initially but will tend to die out during Sunday morning. Total accumulations from this snow event are likely to be of order 5-10cm in many places; this includes low lying areas. The public are advised that this is likely to lead to some travel disruption, and should pay close attention to forecasts as the event approaches

[Cheese Rice]

I've lived here all my life, trust me.

And how many frontal snow events have you actually seen?

February 2011- Front stalls against high to our east, 7-11cm in Leeds, rain in North west

Januray 2011- Front pushing up from the south (one that stalled over Scotland), 3-5cm in Leeds, rain in North West

February 2010- Front pushes up from south, 7-10cm in Leeds, rain in North west

3rd December 2008- Front pushes in from east, 10-15cm in Leeds, rain in North West

I can't remember the exact dates but I remember the snowfall and remember it been restricted to central northern England.

Its not all that common as you think

[Backtrack]

BT-- how is it 'obvious that it would shift westwards'?

Because the Russian block is forcing is back, the pressure is very strong, and it's not going to progress as the models predict.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

It was -7 in the car at 8am today

[Backtrack]

And how many frontal snow events have you actually seen?

February 2011- Front stalls against high to our east, 7-11cm in Leeds, rain in North west

Januray 2011- Front pushing up from the south (one that stalled over Scotland), 3-5cm in Leeds, rain in North West

February 2010- Front pushes up from south, 7-10cm in Leeds, rain in North west

3rd December 2008- Front pushes in from east, 10-15cm in Leeds, rain in North West

I can't remember the exact dates but I remember the snowfall and remember it been restricted to central northern England.

Its not all that common as you think

I hardly think that's a fair comparison taking into consideration that your location is over 4 times higher than mine?