North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[HotCuppa]

I said yesterday use caution..fact still remains FI is still 24 hours..GFS disregard

6Z still has rain and sleet here. Although colder air seems to push further West earlier in the run, the warm air makes quicker progress East when the fronts arrive.

why use the 06Z, its as bad as the pub run 18z..on GFS use 12z and 00z even then use it at your peril...nothing is nailed on...and bare in mind how poor the gfs is this winter..

Edited February 2, 2012 by HotCuppa

[SP1986]

It does look like coastal western areas will see the snow turn to rain, and cold air gradually displaced. Further east though the cold air hanging on. This could be a very interesting period, and one of my great interests in weather, large geographical variability!

[cfallon]

All the talk in the mods is how the nw will miss out! I hope to god it shifts west and the se miss out! They wind me up so biased!

[SP1986]

Whoever gets snow won't see it melt, as a consequence there could be a few cold record broken in the southeast.

[UV-RAY]

It does look like coastal western areas will see the snow turn to rain, and cold air gradually displaced. Further east though the cold air hanging on. This could be a very interesting period, and one of my great interests in weather, large geographical variability!

That's what makes living in the UK such a fascinating thing, for such a small island the differences can be huge. As for the weekends snow prospects for us, I dont think we'll do particularly well put of this. A snow to rain event for many, from about the West Pennines Westwards.

[Backtrack]

As GP says, BIN THE GFS OP RUNS.

Stick with the ECM. The ECM is by far the superior model, and has support from the UKMO.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Turning into a right 'mare here now......looks as though te front will edge too far east, we need to see it corrected on the 12zs by 100 miles west or so.....a big ask

Edited February 2, 2012 by CreweCold

[chiffer]

I don't think it's that much of a big ask! On the continent the high pressure is meant to be at it's peak so could it not be possible for a shift westwards? I feel sorry for places like Bulgaria hitting -29 though it's only going to get worse for them I guess

sorry I meant at it's peak on sat through to sun

Edited February 2, 2012 by chiffer

[Cheshire Freeze]

I don't think it's that much of a big ask! On the continent the high pressure is meant to be at it's peak so could it not be possible for a shift westwards? I feel sorry for places like Bulgaria hitting -29 though it's only going to get worse for them I guess

Yes, it's a big ask. Might have to give th forum a miss for a couple of days over the weekend as the southeasteners will be revelling in their snow whilst we hear nothing but the drip drip of rain unfortunately

[weatherobsuk]

by far the NW has a better chance than the south if not for the fact we have evaporative cooling on our side aided by the frontal passage having to cross all of Wales beforehand, cooling DPs aswell as the warm front advecting into the Pennines (topographic lifting) which almost always means despite cheshire some 10 miles away can be shrouded in rain, its bedlam around these parts with communities literally cut off and traffic queues lasting for miles along the main trunk roads as drivers struggle to cope in the conditions. We have at least favourability in the Pennines if not for a factor of heights and dew point factors.

[Cheshire Freeze]

by far the NW has a better chance than the south if not for the fact we have evaporative cooling on our side aided by the frontal passage having to cross all of Wales beforehand, cooling DPs aswell as the warm front advecting into the Pennines (topographic lifting) which almost always means despite cheshire some 10 miles away can be shrouded in rain, its bedlam around these parts with communities literally cut off and traffic queues lasting for miles along the main trunk roads as drivers struggle to cope in the conditions. We have at least favourability in the Pennines if not for a factor of heights and dew point factors.

On current output, Cheshire is almost certainly looking at rain....a poor poor conclusion to this 'cold spell'. It' increasingly reminding m of breakdowns of recent times (up until 2007-2008) where we get half an hour of drizzly snow before proper rain falls. Has that signature about it thus far.

[trickydicky]

God damn it CreweCold you are defeatist. I've never been to Crewe so your negativity may be entirely well founded but I think we are going to do better out of this than people might be thinking at the minute. I think the cold is being underestimated and the Atlantic a little overestimated. At the moment we aren't well favoured, if the models are to be believed, but we are the ones who stand to win from any upgrades that occur, and I think there will still be a couple to come. If you look at History, where gets hammered by incursions into cold blocks? The west mainly I would suggest.

I do stand to be corrected and my optimism may be directly related to the amount of coffee I have consumed this morning.

[Cheshire Freeze]

God damn it CreweCold you are defeatist. I've never been to Crewe so your negativity may be entirely well founded but I think we are going to do better out of this than people might be thinking at the minute. I think the cold is being underestimated and the Atlantic a little overestimated. At the moment we aren't well favoured, if the models are to be believed, but we are the ones who stand to win from any upgrades that occur, and I think there will still be a couple to come. If you look at History, where gets hammered by incursions into cold blocks? The west mainly I would suggest.

I do stand to be corrected and my optimism may be directly related to the amount of coffee I have consumed this morning.

If you lived in Crewe you'd feel the same! I can assure you that generally, the weather here is as interesting as a paint drying competition. Only 5 months left at uni though so I suppose I'll have more freedom to pick my locale after this.

[Snow free zone]

God damn it CreweCold you are defeatist. I've never been to Crewe so your negativity may be entirely well founded but I think we are going to do better out of this than people might be thinking at the minute. I think the cold is being underestimated and the Atlantic a little overestimated. At the moment we aren't well favoured, if the models are to be believed, but we are the ones who stand to win from any upgrades that occur, and I think there will still be a couple to come. If you look at History, where gets hammered by incursions into cold blocks? The west mainly I would suggest.

I do stand to be corrected and my optimism may be directly related to the amount of coffee I have consumed this morning.

Do you want another cup

IMBY as long as the rain holds off till after i've played golf on sat i'll be happy, Longridge fell will be covered in the white stuff again from this.

Rain/sleet West of the M6 is my opinion again today, haven't seen anything different to change my mind. I reckon this could be one of the cases where Longridge gets some snow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Do you want another cup

IMBY as long as the rain holds off till after i've played golf on sat i'll be happy, Longridge fell will be covered in the white stuff again from this.

Rain/sleet West of the M6 is my opinion again today, haven't seen anything different to change my mind. I reckon this could be one of the cases where Longridge gets some snow.

LOL 6 miles west of M6......doh!

[gareth73]

Talking to a friend at Man Airport and they have been put on alert for the weekend as the cold looks like pushing west with all the power building in the eastern block countrues so who knows. Also Liam Dutton is hinting at the cold holding and more snow.

[SummerNSnow]

Well, TEITS has posted a map showing where show is likely (atm) and it looks like you are right CC!

[cfallon]

Well, TEITS has posted a map showing where show is likely (atm) and it looks like you are right CC!

It's a now cast event so nobody will truly know till 24-48hrs out

Edited February 2, 2012 by cfallon

[chris78]

from the model thread......i know this is difficult to predict but ...its looking very much like rain for the west of the region...history (1996 excluded) and the models are telling us this

TEITS

As im rather unhappy with my description of this weekend i've put together a simple map which is based on all the model output this morning which also includes the past 3 GFS runs. Excuse the lack of straight lines because i've had too much coffee.

The blue line indicates the ideal location at the moment for the simple reason it has the greater error of margin because even a slight shift W or E brings this area into play.

The yellow line on the other hand cannot really afford much of a shift W because otherwise the snow won't reach them.

The red line is the area which does need to see a shift W otherwise it will be snow turning to rain.

Areas W of the red line look unlikely at the moment because I cannot see a big enough shift W to bring them into play.

I will add the above doesn't mean other areas won't see snow but the above is related to who sees a snow event i.e remaining as snow and not turning to rain.

snow map.png

Doh beaten to it....

Edited February 2, 2012 by chris78

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's a now cast event so nobody will truly know till 24-48hrs out

48 hours out brings us to Sat, the day of the 'event'

and p.s SummerNSnow, I'm always right (when things are looking negative)

Edited February 2, 2012 by CreweCold

[P-M]

Well, TEITS has posted a map showing where show is likely (atm) and it looks like you are right CC!

Sorry for invading your forum - take it with a pinch of salt at this present moment in time. TEITS knows his stuff mind but this is far from "nailed on" yet you may get a pleasant surprise! :-))

[snowingtequila]

I am expecting this snow to be further west than teits red line going by past events I think the line may follow the Pennines more closely. I would expect areas west of Manchester to see snow turning to rain I think east of this particularly heading into the Pennines that it will be snow but fizzling out rather than turning into rain. I have often left deep snow in Macclesfield to arrive to drizzle in Crewe.

[cfallon]

from the model thread......i know this is difficult to predict but ...its looking very much like rain for the west of the region...history (1996 excluded) and the models are telling us this

TEITS

As im rather unhappy with my description of this weekend i've put together a simple map which is based on all the model output this morning which also includes the past 3 GFS runs. Excuse the lack of straight lines because i've had too much coffee.

The blue line indicates the ideal location at the moment for the simple reason it has the greater error of margin because even a slight shift W or E brings this area into play.

The yellow line on the other hand cannot really afford much of a shift W because otherwise the snow won't reach them.

The red line is the area which does need to see a shift W otherwise it will be snow turning to rain.

Areas W of the red line look unlikely at the moment because I cannot see a big enough shift W to bring them into play.

I will add the above doesn't mean other areas won't see snow but the above is related to who sees a snow event i.e remaining as snow and not turning to rain.

snow map.png

Doh beaten to it....

That maps the one done in the mods! They are biased se in there! It's a nicest event! Plus the models will shift slightly west !

[Cheshire Freeze]

I am expecting this snow to be further west than teits red line going by past events I think the line may follow the Pennines more closely. I would expect areas west of Manchester to see snow turning to rain I think east of this particularly heading into the Pennines that it will be snow but fizzling out rather than turning into rain. I have often left deep snow in Macclesfield to arrive to drizzle in Crewe.

Hahaha yep......this is the point I'm trying to make, people think I'm negative but I just know what Crewe is like.

Really hoping for work up Manchester way so I can move to the Pennine foothills.....somewhere like Marple/Glossop would suit me quite well, or alternatively up Oldham way.

Edited February 2, 2012 by CreweCold

[gearbox1002]

It's just like every other event that involves snow, lots of predictions but nobody has a clue. Likely senario is snow to rain, higher parts getting more snow.

I think the over reaction to this cold spell is probably due to the fact its been a pretty standard winter with nothing much happening.

I hope for snow but Merseyside rarely sees any so can not complain. South east won't gloat they will be as dissapointed as us when the realisation only the usual spots will be effected. Infact they will be more dissapointed with all the hype.