North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

-4.4 here now -6dp

it actually still getting colder

as you say ground like concrete.

well the grass and soil is anyway

Edited February 2, 2012 by Saintpeter

[Backtrack]

-3.1C after a low of -3.7C!

[Martin M]

No significant shift west overnight but the GFS has shifted the snowline a fair few miles northwest.

18z was showing this

00z this

More upgrades to come I hope, but it might come down to nowcasting on the day. Maybe the high res models will shed more light on it later.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Martin M

[The Northern Ramper]

No westwards shift of the front overnight so we'll likely see a snow to rain event by Saturday. Still time for adjustments today though, in these situations things can change at short notice and I wouldn't be surprised if the front didn't make it that far east.

The ecm still looks favourable and the gfs has moved in our favour from the 18, not there yet but in the right direction.

I also think that there may be a westward correction on the day.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Really not lookign great for the west of our region now,latest forecasts have rain down the west side with snow for the centrtal spine and east.

personally i think the NW might miss out saturday whil the midlands yorkshire get a good dumping.

Anywhere west of manchester looks an almost certain rainfest,manc touch and go imo.

[cfallon]

Really not lookign great for the west of our region now,latest forecasts have rain down the west side with snow for the centrtal spine and east.

personally i think the NW might miss out saturday whil the midlands yorkshire get a good dumping.

Anywhere west of manchester looks an almost certain rainfest,manc touch and go imo.

Events like these change quickly! You can see the gfs model have shifted west and I can see it moving again so not over by a long shot!

Edited February 2, 2012 by cfallon

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

No significant shift west overnight but the GFS has shifted the snowline a fair few miles northwest.

18z was showing this

00z this

More upgrades to come I hope, but it might come down to nowcasting on the day. Maybe the high res models will shed more light on it later.

exactly. The line between snow and rail is only 1c difference. on the day we could be that 1c colder to get snow. but it all depends on the dp's and the 850's too.

[Martin M]

exactly. The line between snow and rail is only 1c difference. on the day we could be that 1c colder to get snow. but it all depends on the dp's and the 850's too.

Yep. The NAE model will be coming into range tonight so hopefully by tomorrow morning we should know alot more.

Not sure how the BBC northwest weather can show a max of 7C for Sunday though, I cant find anything higher than 5 for Sunday and Monday and thats on/off the coast up around Blackpool. 7C on the Isle of Mann but surely they can't pluck a temp from there and say the rest of the region would get that. I know our presenters are mild rampers but that abit wrong I think.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Martin M

[Thunder Snow]

BBC's Carol has gone with rain moving in from the west falling as snow on western hills, with enough snow to make a snOwman across the south east eastern and some central areas

[loubie_4]

-5 here at 8am this morning...not sure how cold it got, but it was certainly a bit colder than forecast

[UV-RAY]

No significant shift west overnight but the GFS has shifted the snowline a fair few miles northwest.

18z was showing this

00z this

More upgrades to come I hope, but it might come down to nowcasting on the day. Maybe the high res models will shed more light on it later.

Personally I would take what any model is showing for us over the weekend, with a large pinch of salt. The best forecast would be too see what happens on the day, as my trust in any of the models is practically zero.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Snow free zone]

After the upgrages of yesterday not much change overnight.

Looking like if you are West, at the moment there will be little if any snow. That is at the moment, things may change again today. At the moment I'd say Burnley Eastwards is looking good.

Watch the models again today though - there may be a surprise or two yet.

[UV-RAY]

After the upgrages of yesterday not much change overnight.

Looking like if you are West, at the moment there will be little if any snow. That is at the moment, things may change again today. At the moment I'd say Burnley Eastwards is looking good.

Watch the models again today though - there may be a surprise or two yet.

Oh no doubt there will be, but the 06z will have all of the UK under dark laden skies with copious amounts of rain.

[Snow free zone]

Oh no doubt there will be, but the 06z will have all of the UK under dark laden skies with copious amounts of rain.

Can you imagine the mood in the SE regional (sorry model output) thread.

[Thunder Snow]

I agree snow free lol

[gearbox1002]

Weather and news forcasting has always been bias to the south for example, London get snow and its Britan that grinded to a halt.

As for the weekend, it looks like snow to rain and as a non expert just using the usual senario in these events that's probably going to happen. I live near Wigan and would love to have just a flutter of snow as this winters been the most boring ever. :-)

[Liam J]

9.30am and still -3.8c.

[Lancashire Lass]

brrrrrrrrrrrr still -2.3c after a low of -4.5c overnight

[Thunder Snow]

I'm not expecting anything this weekend to be honest

[Liam J]

Expect nothing to avoid disappointment

The front may stall further west which has happened in the past during similar synoptic set-ups. I'm expecting it to weaken substantially as it moves over the UK.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[UV-RAY]

Expect nothing to avoid disappointment

The front may stall further west which has happened in the past during similar synoptic set-ups. I'm expecting it weaken substantially as it moves over the UK.

I agree, I feel those in the SE will be disappointed, though today is looking good for quite a number of places down there. Maybe a NW collective "snow" mind meld will do the trick.

[davacr123]

Jedi mind trick it will stall over the north west lol

Edited February 2, 2012 by davacr123

[trickydicky]

I'm not convinced we aren't going to get a big fat wad of snow this weekend. I might be clutching at straws, or just talking crud but I think we could get lucky. Look at last weekend, snow was forecast for England, turning to rain. In the end it got pushed so far west it ended up in the very far South West and the Irish Sea. This time the block and its accompanying cold is much stronger and the models are correcting the precipitation further and further west every time. 24 hours ago the only people seeing snow were sailors and oil rig engineers. Then it was the east, now its central areas. All it needs is for a little more westwards correction and a bit of misjudgement from forecasters and we'll be doing better business than Bill Gates. Historically, these things get mis-forecast a lot. I wouldn't be massively surprised if all we see is some high cloud.

Edited February 2, 2012 by trickydicky

[chiffer]

Most of the time if there snow a mile from me it'd fizzle out before it gets here so I'm not optimistic for the SE not that I would want to be anyway I'm going to stay excited until Friday night when we have an idea. I'm saying an idea because even 12 hours out no one is doing a good job. I have alot more faith in netweather members on what is going to happen. The un-biased members anyway. I'm happy just seeing snowfall let alone lying so I might not see much dissapointment. So for now as I still have no clue I'm looking forward to at least believing it will

[Snow free zone]

6Z still has rain and sleet here. Although colder air seems to push further West earlier in the run, the warm air makes quicker progress East when the fronts arrive.