North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Liam J]

Also bearing in mind the Feb 1996 blizzard was predicted to be a transient snow event as the front was meant to push eastwards into the near continent. It then stalled in situ over western Britain, snowed heavily for over 24 hours then fizzled out slowly. The cold air won and the snow remained on the ground for 5+ days, I was off school for nearly a week after.

I can't remember any weather forecasts 24-36 hours in advance predicting severe snowfall of that magnitude. Then it all went crazy with warnings etc with little time to prepare. Surely I wouldn't have been packed off on a school bus for a 20 mile journey that very morning!

Edited February 1, 2012 by Liam J

[Martin M]

Because everyone else in the model thread has gone with the opposite of what I think. :lol:

I think if you read between the lines most in there feel its going to trend westwards as we get nearer to the event. I think we should be fine, might be a bit more marginal in your side but you might be fine in the end. Dont think we have to worry about being too far north or south of it though but I think the eastern extent of the band will be just the overside of the Pennines running through Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

[feb1991blizzard]

Really wouldnt get carried away with whats being posted in the model thread, i really dont see huge westward correction from here, that said i could very easily see an inch but this would quickly turn to rain and melt, areas just to the east and south east of me are 1000ft + and some of the highest peaks nearly 2000ft so natural variation based on altutude is sure to occur and locally i wouldnt rule out 3 or even 4 inches, however i dont buy into these posts suggesting areas in the east of the country are going to stay dry, yes i could list countless events 20 years ago where this happened but models and forecaster interpretation are far superior to what they were in those days and the met office have got endless data that we dont see and they havent shifted the snow risk westward as a result of the ECM, the caveat to what i am saying is of course that nothing is completely nailed in these setups and of course there will be some changes as we get nearer and of course one to watch, but no big snow event for our region in my opinion.

[Liam J]

-3.1c here, dew point -5.8c.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Going cloudy.

Temperature up to 1.6C after being -2C earlier. Is it REALLY to much to ask for to have a decent frost? Just as we lose the wind the cloud comes.

This is the worst winter I have ever experienced.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

all need a shift west, even me in the extreme SE of this region, ECMWF mind you is perfect, away from coasts

[johnwirral]

Not looking likely, but still a chance, we are looking at the edge of the cold that has travelled thousands miles, must be very difficult predict the last 100 miles or so.

[Liam J]

Going back to the weekend remember the models predicting the warm front to make it further into our region about 2-3 days ahead of the actual event. Once we got within T48 the front was edged further west with each run meaning the eventual outcome ended up with the warm front lying across Ireland through Wales and SW England, where it turned to snow before fizzling out.

Hoping that the ECM is on the money here and I'm glad it's this model which is showing the best evolution for the NW. Lets not forget the GFS has been performing particularly badlylately, some people have even placed it 4th behind the GEM.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Matt Hugo is confident we will see snow. See his latest update.

-2.1C here now, cloud must of buggered off.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Guys forget the model thread fax charts etc saturday is a NOWCAST event.

[kold weather]

Matt Hugo is confident we will see snow. See his latest update.

-2.1C here now, cloud must of buggered off.

I may not be quite at Matt Hugo's level, but I'm also pretty confident of snow for you guys. Whether or not it'll be totally snow will be dependant on probably more shifts to the west but I'd expect a solid 5-10cms even if does turn sleety towards the end. High ground may hold on regardless...

[Backtrack]

I may not be quite at Matt Hugo's level, but I'm also pretty confident of snow for you guys. Whether or not it'll be totally snow will be dependant on probably more shifts to the west but I'd expect a solid 5-10cms even if does turn sleety towards the end. High ground may hold on regardless...

That sounds great to me Kold, what a way to finish the night. Being told I will get snow on Saturday before I go to bed.

Thanks!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Obviously further east in the region the better,infact snowmad79 could get plastered saturday,he mayget nothing or he may get rain,noone knows.Like i said,further west and little altitude id be expecting little snow tbh but we'll see.

[Snowmad79]

Obviously further east in the region the better,infact snowmad79 could get plastered saturday,he mayget nothing or he may get rain,noone knows.Like i said,further west and little altitude id be expecting little snow tbh but we'll see.

Sounds good to me mate but I'm pretty sure a lot of us in this thread will get plastered EVEN if the warm uppers do pile in behind. But yea lets hope for another westward shunt of the pattern and hopefully a stalling front bang over us.

[gareth73]

Positively summer out there this moring, 4.5c!! as i left for work at 5am

[weatherobsuk]

-5.1'c here in the past hour. Currently having a coffee wrapped up in the usual daywear, hoodie, and robe before the radiators come back on again. The temps have been lower than this (-11'c infact last year) but just the dryness of the air is the result of the 'chillness' than the actual frost itself. Sunrise only 2 hours away so not long before the morning walk along the hillside.

[Weather-history]

-7.0C.

[carl1980]

-4.6c

[Liam J]

Brass monkeys here, lowest temp -5.7c currently -4.9c.

Shap down to -9.0c. :cold:

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Brrr temp is -4.2 dp is -5.6.

The cold really tkes the energy out of you. been the shop and my legs have siezed up :lol:

ECM still points towards cold through to next weekend. but the GFS still isnt too keen

[Chris.R]

-4.3c here in crosby.

[Liam J]

No westwards shift of the front overnight so we'll likely see a snow to rain event by Saturday. Still time for adjustments today though, in these situations things can change at short notice and I wouldn't be surprised if the front didn't make it that far east.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[chris78]

I know from the uncertain situation that my question may be unanswerable, but ill ask anyway......

I am organising the planting of a community orchard in Preston this Saturday, due to start 10;30....now a light ground frost is ok ...we can scrape of the frost and plant the trees...however a deep frost is another matter, for example today would have been a no go, even though it was 3c by 10am the ground was pretty solid......now it seems that Friday to Saturday could see milder air.......Id like a few opinions, how do you rate my chances of the ground being relatively thawed by 11 am Saturday?

I know most of you are rooting for it to still be cold (i have mixed feelings) but please try to be unbiased.

Thanks in advance

Chris

Looks like I still can't call this.

ecm keeps us pretty cold probably keeps the ground frozen

Gfs up to six degrees on sat that would surely thaw things ?

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

No westwards shift of the front overnight so we'll likely see a snow to rain event by Saturday. Still time for adjustments today though, in these situations things can change at short notice and I wouldn't be surprised if the front didn't make it that far east.

What about the ECM though Liam? Do you think it has had tooo many drinks?

[Liam J]

The front gets to far east over the country so the milder air comes in behind as it's a warm front. Still time for changes yet. Not hoping for much though.

ECM is still colder than the GFS, I really don't know tbh hopefully everything will be much clearer later.

-5.1c here, ground like concrete.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J