North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[chiffer]

It might be my phone messing up but have the snow warnings dissapeared?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Deffo a nowcast the models and pros can speculate all they like but its the interaction when the cold block meets the atalntic that will be the uknown.

There could be a big shift west or east at the last min how many times when radar watching have we said,'oh the fronts far more north or south than it should be',plenty OF TIMES METHINKS>

Anyway,if i was to guess a sweet spot id say west yorkshire eastmidlands kind of area with the east of our region with the best chance and those west of manchester sadly out of the game,we'll see pretty soon.

[feb1991blizzard]

It might be my phone messing up but have the snow warnings dissapeared?

They put them up and within 10 mins took them down, been off for ages now.

[AderynCoch]

I might just hibernate for a couple of weeks and see if the hints of blocking towards Greenland come off. Cursed yet again when it comes to easterlies.

[davehsug]

Good grief! Just been in the model thread & it feels like I've moved to the South East! Then to top it all, we have the guru of the fens holding court, giving the usual unbiased reports & forecasts. This is a long way from being settled either way. Wouldn't it be just wonderful if the front stalled over the Eastern Irish sea & nothing fell east of Leicester & Nottingham

[chiffer]

Have they gone for any reason? So confused :s

sorry it's technical issues that the new term for screw up I forgot

Edited February 2, 2012 by chiffer

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Nailed on rain event for me. What do you think Liam?

[trickydicky]

Also, I wouldn't get too hung up on the BBC northwest forecasts... in general I think the NW forecasters are terrible....generally presenters rather than actual forecasters. I either get my ears blasted off by Eno Eruotor (not too sure she actually knows what weather is), told cold and snow is bad by Dianne Oxberry or get the feeling the cleaner has been placed in a suit and forced on TV with Heather Stott. That may be harsh (I'm not one to mince my words, but IMO true)

They may aswell just run the visual graphics through silently and let us make our own minds up.

Yeah, the North West presenters are terrible. That Oxberry woman drives me up the wall with all her 'but look at those temperatures, 12c in some places', expecting me to be pleased that its raining and blowing a gale. This week they have been confidently predicting mild by Saturday, whereas the proper Met Office forecasters on the BBC News forecasts have been admitting they don't know what will happen. The guy who has done it the last couple of nights has been pretty good at expressing this, and also his enthusiasm at such an unusual set of synoptics. The wide pan view of Europe showing the full extent of the High Pressure centred over North West Russia, covering just about the entire map, was very interesting.

Edited February 2, 2012 by trickydicky

[Lancashire Lass]

Just caught the beeb weather forecast. Showed the nw getting plenty of snow this weekend. Thought all the action was going to be to the East?

Hi annag welcome to the forum.

[trickydicky]

Nailed on rain event for me. What do you think Liam?

Brief snow to rain in Egremont. A covering from Kirkland/Cockermouth/Lamplugh eastwards, a pasting Penrith south eastwards I would say, with just brief drizzle to top it off.

[Snow free zone]

Around 10 of the GEFS ensembles have the ppn falling as snow and much further west than the op run by +60hours. A few also have a better angle on the front aligning it more north to south instead of north east to south west.

P7 or P11 for me then, N/S band and nothing in the SE (sorry couldn't resist)

[Martin M]

Personally I would take what any model is showing for us over the weekend, with a large pinch of salt. The best forecast would be too see what happens on the day, as my trust in any of the models is practically zero.

Sorry for the delay in replying, been at work. Yeah I know the models are not exactly reliable at the moment, and I agree with you that it will be mostly nowcasting on the day. Could easily be that one place gets rain and 2 miles east to there get lots of snow. I was mainly just showing that the GFS is slowly coming into line with the rest and bringing it westwards. Also remember that band last weekend was going to reach the Pennines 2/3 days off and it only just made it into Wales, wouldnt be surprised if something similar but not as extreme happens this weekend as we get closer to.

Few flakes in the breeze at the moment quite nice to see,

I was just going to say that theres a few flakes blowing around. Thought I was going mad and seeing things.

[Liam J]

Very cold today, coldest of the week. Temp 1.7c after briefly hitting 2.2c. Heatings on!

Edit @ 1.2c now. patches of thin cloud are preventing the suns radiation from warming the surface.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[SP1986]

It will almost certainly be a snow to rain event here, if the warm air mass doesn't do it, the wind off the sea will do it later on in the day. I think for the east of the region however, this could be very interesting indeed!

[gearbox1002]

It's sods law that I planned a trip to Scotland due to mild winter and it turns chilly. It's cold here in st Helens and now cloudy.

BBC northwest are going for mainly rain now for my end but looks good for Manchester and beyond.

[cheshire cat]

Read most days dont post much now.

I would expect the models to under estimate the strength of the block and the cold air. So everthing westwards by about 100 miles upto Sat am, and expect it to pivot too as the front hits the cold.

M6 line would be a good bet for me, but it will come down to 12 hrs before, poss Fridays' 12z ecm and fax for me. NAE have been wrong too in the past.

We should get some snow, will it be a few hours or something better, hopefully the later.

Still aiming to go out sledging Sat pm.

[Liam J]

Brrrrr....Down to 0.8c here already, coldest day since Dec 2010. The 850 temps are the coldest they've been all week, around -8.0c atm.

Edit : 0.5c

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[davacr123]

It's been cold all day here still frost and ice laying where the sun hasn't got to

Hopeing we gat the stalled front would really quiet down the southerners lol

[Liam J]

Liking the fact everything has shifted further west (so far) on the 12z. Lets hope for minor adjustments on each run. Might just be our luck that ends up over Ireland!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's been cold all day here still frost and ice laying where the sun hasn't got to

Hopeing we gat the stalled front would really quiet down the southerners lol

A stalled front would be legendary in as much as it'd shut up the noisy southeasteners and we'd get some good snow. They can have their showers tomorrow eve, we'll have the frontal thanks very much.

[Cheese Rice]

It will almost certainly be a snow to rain event here, if the warm air mass doesn't do it, the wind off the sea will do it later on in the day. I think for the east of the region however, this could be very interesting indeed!

I think it'll be snow throughout, the mild sector track south east and diminishes in time.

Anyway precipitation showing on the NAE.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Liking the fact everything has shifted further west (so far) on the 12z. Lets hope for minor adjustments on each run. Might just be our luck that ends up over Ireland!

Yes! Stays as snow where the 6z turned it to rain n the 12z......still marginal though....east Wales eastwards

[Julian]

Liking the fact everything has shifted further west (so far) on the 12z. Lets hope for minor adjustments on each run. Might just be our luck that ends up over Ireland!

Would that please residents of Cork?

[Liam J]

Would that please residents of Cork?

Who knows if these adjustments are now being made with each run! UKMO also an upgrade for the NW I see?

[SP1986]

I like how its rain over wirral and nobody acknowledges that.. its like were part of wales or something