London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4

[Froze were the Days]

For those in the far East and South East. Please do not worry about this front stalling to west. This means only one thing, and that is prolonged cold and a greater chance of snow in the future. Already some of the models are hinting at further easterlies during the t+120 to 144 hour time frame, this time with a higher chance of snow showers. Please stop worrying about this weekend and look forward to the week ahead where things could get very interesting.

Really? a higher risk of snow in the future - not sure about that, but remaining cold yes.

[Mullet]

I think what you wish for over the next few days depends on cold/snow preference. If you want to stay just cold you'll want that front being held up further and further West. However if you have snowmen on the brain this feature represents our region's biggest threat of something notable, as thereafter I can't see where the PPN is going to come from, cold or not.

Gorgeous day today - wall to wall sunshine and cold in Chelmsford - puts you in a better mood than sloping into work under a brolly...

[Lauren]

F-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-freezing

[blackprince]

North Sea precipitation has now shifted track towards the southern north sea

Hi VM which radar are you watching

[echodelta21]

Still watching the group of showers for TONIGHT approx 6-7 hours away nr Holland.

To be honest, we have possible snow tonight, tomorrow, the weekend and now (apparently) further into Feb.

Why are some people so damn long sighted? The models will wiggle over the next 24 hours and you need to learn not to act like sheeple over one thing that sounds bad. If it becomes a trend, then start to worry.

Personally, I can't see any rain at all for our region. It would be impressive to be rain in the temps and DP's we have atm.

Where's Mr Murr? Could use a steady hand on the rudder and maybe some input on those Holland showers and if they'll continue on track or divert.

/rantover

[WinterSnow]

Well I don't expect to get as much as I was looking at earlier today but as long as i get enough to take some wintry pictures I'll be happy. Atleast we know we aren't going to go back to the spring like winter we have had so far anytime soon!

[Mike Storm]

little bit of precip heading for Norwich.... seems to be intensifying a bit lol

[nanu]

I think what you wish for over the next few days depends on cold/snow preference. If you want to stay just cold you'll want that front being held up further and further West. However if you have snowmen on the brain this feature represents our region's biggest threat of something notable, as thereafter I can't see where the PPN is going to come from, cold or not.

Gorgeous day today - wall to wall sunshine and cold in Chelmsford - puts you in a better mood than sloping into work under a brolly...

well you could take away that brisk wind.. making my teeth chatter on way to dentist this afternoon. Painful coming back!!

[Timmytour]

we are possibly on the cusp of a legendary bit of weather. I wouldn't worry about any shift westwards.personally....as that would only serve to really install the easterly and the cold. I can remember 1987 where areas to the east and the south of London ended up with nearly a foot and those areas possibly progged to have snow on sat/sun didn't fare as well.

I do have a concern however. Not that it's reflected in any models whatsoever as far as I know.....but I've a guarded feeling still, just enough to curb my ramping instinct, that the front will in fact end up as far east as was being shown little over 24 hours ago! I appreciate that the strength of a cold pool and a Siberian High can be underestimated by the models...but i can't recall a previous winter where we have had a strong easterly influence this late on into it, when it hasn't showed it's hand earlier in the season, even if only to be brushed easily aside.

I hope this nagging feeling has no substance....I certainly don't think it should have.....but being this close and knowing the heartbreak of years gone....who wouldn't retain some pessimism! :-)

[Snowy Easterly]

If I was in the western part of this region right now my word would I be excited, so Surrey/Sussex northwards I think have a great chance of getting big falls. Much less confident about further east say Essex/Kent simply because it depends on how strong the front can stay. I feel confident they will get snow but totals probably no where near as high.

I'll personally be happy with some sort of settling snow, doesn't really matter about amounts to be honest, just want to see one covering this winter.

PS, if you want an outside bet, I reckon somewhere west of London will get 9 inches once all said and done from this set-up...

luton could be a good place to be i reckon

[Mullet]

well you could take away that brisk wind.. making my teeth chatter on way to dentist this afternoon. Painful coming back!!

Ha that would put a different spin on it - I was looking out the window at it! I didn't even go for the fag break it was so cold!

[username home]

I am expecting a mesoscale event in Kingston upon Thames!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snowfall09]

How long could this radar blip go on for?

[Lampostwatcher]

After browsing through all models and charts

I've come to the conclusion that anywhere from kings Lynn in line through Northampton and down as far south as gatwick will be the sweet spot for up to 3-5 inches and the whole of London with Kent seeing up to 3 inches

[kold weather]

luton could be a good place to be i reckon

Quite possibly yes, still remains to be seen but you've got a little wiggle room up from the looks of things in case things to shift west.

[Froze were the Days]

we are possibly on the cusp of a legendary bit of weather. I wouldn't worry about any shift westwards.personally....as that would only serve to really install the easterly and the cold. I can remember 1987 where areas to the east and the south of London ended up with nearly a foot and those areas possibly progged to have snow on sat/sun didn't fare as well.

I do have a concern however. Not that it's reflected in any models whatsoever as far as I know.....but I've a guarded feeling still, just enough to curb my ramping instinct, that the front will in fact end up as far east as was being shown little over 24 hours ago! I appreciate that the strength of a cold pool and a Siberian High can be underestimated by the models...but i can't recall a previous winter where we have had a strong easterly influence this late on into it, when it hasn't showed it's hand earlier in the season, even if only to be brushed easily aside.

I hope this nagging feeling has no substance....I certainly don't think it should have.....but being this close and knowing the heartbreak of years gone....who wouldn't retain some pessimism! :-)

The 1987 set up is nothing like the synoptics over the next couple of days, 87 we had huge convection in extremely cold uppers and yes as you said a foot or so of snow was 'delivered' to the south eastern counties particularly coastal areas but what we'll possibly see over the weekend are quite rare synoptics and very difficult to call, where as 87 the writing was on the wall. Not sure about legendary either, 79, 81/82, 86 (for cold in Feb) 87, 91 and possibly Dec 2010 but this I don't think so. But you never know the weather can be pretty unpredictable!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Froze were the Days

[BarnetBlizzard]

Really? a higher risk of snow in the future - not sure about that, but remaining cold yes.

Okay, maybe not a higher risk, but what you have to remember is that once we have cold, normally the snow turns up, so the fact we will be getting cold air for longer increases our chance of snow during this period? This time last week I don't think anyone could have predicted a large snow event over large parts of the country this weekend, so surely at somepoint during this upcoming sustained cold spell, we will have further snow events in the south-east?

[Tim Bland]

Ian F ( met office) just tweeted this;

seen the latest mapped EC EPS & extended UK4 snowfall probs? Lucky me being in Herts overnight into Sunday....cripes.

[Snowy Easterly]

Quite possibly yes, still remains to be seen but you've got a little wiggle room up from the looks of things in case things to shift west.

Bedford where i live, is on quite low ground but it should still be all snow i reckon, i always here reports of a pasting in luton but not much here

Edited February 2, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Amanzi]

I will take anything that is white and cold after the past few months we have had down here, I have been desperate just to see frost lately! So whether I get 1cm or 1ft I will take it gladly.

Current stats

Temp -1.8c

Dew point -9.2c

Humidity 57%

Wind chill -5.1c

Wind NNE 5KTS

[danm]

Ian F ( met office) just tweeted this;

seen the latest mapped EC EPS & extended UK4 snowfall probs? Lucky me being in Herts overnight into Sunday....cripes.

Nice! Not THAT far from Herts here.

[WinterSnow]

As It has shifted west is it also possible for it to shift back east? Or is it too late now?

[kold weather]

Ian F ( met office) just tweeted this;

seen the latest mapped EC EPS & extended UK4 snowfall probs? Lucky me being in Herts overnight into Sunday....cripes.

Also thats good news for the rest of us, if the front is still strong there then that means there is probabnly still more easterly movement to come from the front as it hasn't yet started to decay.

[lottiekent]

Down to -2.6c here now with a dew point of -10c but still clear

[Froze were the Days]

Also thats good news for the rest of us, if the front is still strong there then that means there is probabnly still more easterly movement to come from the front as it hasn't yet started to decay.

Doesn't look like there's going to be any breeze with this predicted snowfall? - would you say this was a very rare synoptical event in getting snowfall for these parts?