East Anglia & Three Counties Regional Discussion €- Part 4

[WheresTheSnow]

Crikey weather forecast states,It will keep snowing till 5am. Wierd radar not showing that,Maybe im missing something.

Says snow untill 3am for me , im just going to listen to that forecast rather than the radar as it includes more snow. I just saw the itv forecast, possibly the worst as they said therecould possibly be some snow showers to the west of London, yet its snowing right now lol.

[Mrsf16]

Stopped here (or so fine I cant see it in the lamp light lol! ) xxx

[Luton Weather]

Still snowing in Luton

[Pixel]

Got a good 6cm fresh snow so far in Rushden just over the border - been snowing since 6pm, thats on top of areas of undisturbed snow from the weekend which hasn't melted. Lots of whinging in the Midlands thread, particularly those west of the M1!

here too - just been out to check the snow fields of Welwyn and confirm nearly 6cm of the very fluffy stuff so far - very happy with that

...and snowing 20p's now - freezing will be an issue t'morrow tho

[snowking]

Well I've just got back and its very localised in terms of depth of snowfall....coming back through sawbridgeworth/bishops stortford/stansted there is a good covering but that is it (note anyone going near the stortford end of the A120 - it has settled across the road there, very slippy)

Back into Elsenham (a little higher up) and the roads are much more tricky, and theres a noticeable increase in snow depth. In the other areas mentioned mostly 1-2cm...nearer 4cm here.

SK

[saint]

Starting to clear out to the West now.... Suspect we'll be seeing the colder temps move in.

[Snowangel-MK]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

getting thicker and heavier here atm, hasn't stopped at all just eased off at times !

[bluearmy]

Crikey weather forecast states,It will keep snowing till 5am. Wierd radar not showing that,Maybe im missing something.

i generally find that tv forecasts tend to show the snow beginning when its stopping. (especially when they've got it wrong in the first place!)

[Mark Burton]

Crikey weather forecast states,It will keep snowing till 5am. Wierd radar not showing that,Maybe im missing something.

No, they are missing something!

[TEITS]

Here is the reason why in my opinion it all went wrong.

I shall begin by looking back at last nights NAE because this is where it all went pearshaped due to the differences to the radar at that time.

http://expert-images...020821_0818.gif

During yesterday evening it was pretty clear the NAE had this wrong. The area of precip was much further SE with the rain across NE Scotland extending into the N Sea.

Moving onto this morning and the error from the NAE was even more noticeable.

http://expert-images...020909_0900.gif

The NAE suggested only light precip off the coast of NE England into the N Sea when infact it was much heavier and more widespread.

This is when the alarm bells should of been ringing!

http://expert-images...020915_0900.gif

http://expert-images...020918_0900.gif

The NAE suggested the heaviest precip would be towards the NW into N Ireland with only light precip into the N sea. This was wrong because at this stage the radar suggested a widespread area of rain extending well into the N Sea and lighter rain across the N/NW. So basically the models got it the wrong way round.

Now what the models suggested is they thought the heavier band of rain across the NW/N England would move SSW and bring heavy snow to W Midlands/E Wales. At the same time the models predicted only light precip across the E Midlands. They suggested this because according to the NAE only light precip would be over the N Sea. This is where the forecast went pearshaped because the area of across the N Sea was always going to move SSW and because this area was much more extensive it was inevitable this would bring more snow to the E Midlands than currently modelled. Now it isn't any coincidence that once the 12Z NAE got the precip about right the model was then forecasting more snow towards the E Midlands.

So in summary it all went wrong last night and not today. Due to this being further E this resulted in slightly warmer temps across the W and I believe some parts of Wales recorded 5/6C max temps. The area of snow that hit the E Midlands tonight was modelled wrongly because this area across the N Sea was always more widespread, heavier and further SE than the NAE predicted. The Pro forecasters got this wrong because for some reason they followed the models rather than the radar. If the NAE at +0 has the area of precipitation in the wrong place then you cannot base a forecast on the rest of the output. This is pretty much common sense and doesn't require much forecasting skills to realise this.

Im sure John H will defend the Met O but sorry you cannot defend this. Even at 1546 the Met O did not change the forecast from the morning for my region. They continued to predict only light flurries when a glance at the radar would of shown a huge area of precip extending SSW towards the E Midlands.

[Jason T]

Starting to clear out to the West now.... Suspect we'll be seeing the colder temps move in.

Guess so Mate..Oh Well 2 snow events in a week not bad at all.

[TEITS]

Just when you thought it was safe to go to bed the radar has intensified the precip coming off the Lincs coast. This isn't over yet!

[stratty]

Just when you thought it was safe to go to bed the radar has intensified the precip coming off the Lincs coast. This isn't over yet!

The radar has been useless for this area......AGAIN!

[MBaines]

Where are the weather radars based which cover the Peterborough area, as there seems to be bands of heavier precipitation showing and also some gaps - which don't seem to move, look more like an artefact of the radar (5 minute update in NW Extra) rather than actual heavier or lighter precipitation. Its almost stopped snowing in central Peterborough now, just the odd flake, although the radar shows a little more to come to our NNW.

[WheresTheSnow]

Wow heavy snow again!!! Nice write up teits by the way. Hopethe MetOffive are right with snow through untill 3am.

[fenland ice]

Still snowing here in Emneth, west Norfolk close to the cambridgeshire border, been snowing since 4pm, mainly light to start then moderate snow giving an inch or so, on top of all that was left from sat night which was around 6-7 inches making it look like a winter wonderland outside.

[Jason T]

Just when you thought it was safe to go to bed the radar has intensified the precip coming off the Lincs coast. This isn't over yet!

So i was missing something TEITS. Excellent previous post aswell. So the METO done away with LRF and now got the SRF wrong also, it dont leave much faith.

[Mark Burton]

Still snowing here in St Ives Dave, so yes, not over yet with more coming in from the Wash area. Enjoyed your analysis of this event - I also enjoyed the other thread last night - you really had them going, and tonight, have been proven spot on!

Getting too close to freezing here for my liking, Temp -0.1 and rising Dewpoint also up to -2.0.

I thought Temps would fall as time went on?

Anyone else finding this?

Edited February 9, 2012 by Mark Burton

[TEITS]

City temps are holding at -0.6 with dewpoints at -2C. Outside the city the temps are -1.5C, dewpoints -2C.

Nothing to worry about because as we progress through the night upper temps, dewpoints will infact drop. I find the dewpoints are most crucial when it comes to snow.

Speaking of temps im going for -12C tomorrow night for one or two spots.

[huntso]

Just been outside for a pre bed check and its dripping well, need the colder air to push in so its crisp for the morning

Showing 0.0 here and its dropping from the trees, think it will hold on alright though

Cheers to all you satisfied people from the twilight zone of 2010, what chance of a hat trick this winter?

[TEITS]

If you live in Peterborough don't go to bed just yet. That area of snow has intensified incredibly and is aiming for Peterborough. Looking at the sat pics it appears more convective!

[SnowShoeHare]

Still snowing here with a couple of inches on the BBQ. Very pleased as unexpected. Will be interesting to see what the morning brings. The temps are 0.0 to -0.5 so ideal.

[Boro_andy]

If you live in Peterborough don't go to bed just yet. That area of snow has intensified incredibly and is aiming for Peterborough. Looking at the sat pics it appears more convective!

When is it expected in your opinion pal?

[mackerel sky]

Yes what about that stuff coming in from the Wash. I'm better off sticking in this regional thread being on the border, lots of disgruntled people in the Midlands thread. Ticking over nicely here, 7cm so far - on top of the undisturbed snow quite a nice depth. Obviously we had some thaw in the areas that see a lot of human activity, but my back garden still had a nice 2 inch cover left over from the weekend. Top banana - and time off in lieu tomorrow for two weeks working away in Houston - got back on saturday just in the nick of time! I won't be taking my son to nursery in Melchborne (out in the N. Beds sticks), he's staying with me to repair Mr Snowman who has been suffering a little.

Best (and repeat) snow here since February 2009, which was exceptional. I'm from NE Yorkshire originally, but have lived down here for 14 years and saw some awesome snowfalls in the early 80s. My expectations are reduced, but terrific that the snow decided to wait until I got back from 2 1/2 weeks in Houston. Hoorah!

[Jason T]

Still coming down good ground cover now,cars,road,paths.