North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 7

[swainclubber]

I see The gfs shows tomorrow's precipitation more to the west. do the other models suggest this too.

[pip22]

the main band not even reached north of england yet. Right now we are seeing

the front of it. The main band is at southeast scotland right now. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

[SP1986]

I'm not sure where the idea of snow is coming from, it simply isn't going to happen. Bare in mind dewpoints are below 0C now so it doesn't make any difference. The upper air profile and the layers that matter are above freezing tonight. This pretty much voids any chance of snow.

We need some perspective here before masses of people in the south of the region are disappointed tonight.

[cfallon]

I'm not sure where the idea of snow is coming from, it simply isn't going to happen. Bare in mind dewpoints are below 0C now so it doesn't make any difference. The upper air profile and the layers that matter are above freezing tonight. This pretty much voids any chance of snow.

We need some perspective here before masses of people in the south of the region are disappointed tonight.

Temp -1c

Dew point -3c

This for my location currently and the cold air hasn't dug in yet so not necessarily disappointment for everyone !

[UV-RAY]

I'm not sure where the idea of snow is coming from, it simply isn't going to happen. Bare in mind dewpoints are below 0C now so it doesn't make any difference. The upper air profile and the layers that matter are above freezing tonight. This pretty much voids any chance of snow.

We need some perspective here before masses of people in the south of the region are disappointed tonight.

Quite agree really, but I'm just highlighting what's being shown. I would say a 10-20% chance of back edge snow for the south of the region.

[HotCuppa]

very light drizzle and rising temp+dp , with it as it comes further south, the colder air that isn't here won't much of a diffe

the main band not even reached north of england yet. Right now we are seeing

the front of it. The main band is at southeast scotland right now. http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

nice if you live futher south, where the colder air is unlikely to be affected by much modification due to that colder continental air sitting right over the south east..

better of using raintoday.co.uk radar updates every 15 mins rather than every 40 odd mins with the met radar

[Bartlett Low]

Quite agree really, but I'm just highlighting what's being shown. I would say a 10-20% chance of back edge snow for the south of the region.

Thirded - thats backtracks eyebrows gone then..

[HotCuppa]

Quite agree really, but I'm just highlighting what's being shown. I would say a 10-20% chance of back edge snow for the south of the region.

i say non at all, not over towards liverpool...rain to freezing rain at most

[SP1986]

I agree... however, once snow has turn to rain, it cannot turn back to snow (perhaps in a cumulonimbus cloud it might be possible in the most high reaching, unstable clouds), but in these benign atmospheric conditions the precipitation is falling. No amount of cold air between the layers of +1C and sub zero surface temperatures will change that.

If the 850's were showing -1 or -2C at that level, I would suggest yes there is a small chances of snow, but if the layer is above freezing, it doesn't bode well.

Surface cold makes no difference.. it could be -15C and still freezing rain (or more likely ice pellets) would not change to snow if the layers above were above 0C

[HotCuppa]

thing is though sp liverpool airport is going for overnight snow, before turning back to rain

EDIT: met office going for sleet from midday through 6pm, although usually wrong with their forecast here

there would appear to be a small window of opportunity, you never know, things like that this have been

poo pooed before and its happened lol...

Im not convinced, seems to me we are going to be sitting in relatively milder air to the rest of the country

even the midland will likely become colder, this is not good, but its not a shock..spring and all that around

the corner.

Edited February 9, 2012 by HotCuppa

[gearbox1002]

thing is though sp liverpool airport is going for overnight snow, before turning back to rain

Liverpool airport forcasting was not that fantastic last week so maybe a pinch of salt on that one.

In st helens, haydock its raining the normal kind and no ice to be seen.

[Snow free zone]

M65 just been closed because of ice between jn 13 and 14.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Snow free zone

[gearbox1002]

Met office are slightly random, Forcast heavy snow 12.00 onward for haydock, its currently a puddle fest outside.

[HotCuppa]

Liverpool airport forcasting was not that fantastic last week so maybe a pinch of salt on that one.

In st helens, haydock its raining the normal kind and no ice to be seen.

t

They did forecast snow to start with and for around 5 mins they got that part right, but then they forecast heavy snow for much of the day and left them with egg on their faces, but you have to remember they are using observational methods of forecasting from pilots etc, so it's never going to be 100% accurate, as far as I know, non of their forecast is automated, though ive seen different forecasts for the same airport for the same time period on different days, possibly some sites are purely automated and could be reading the taf wrong or something may be wrong with their software.

Still i'd always take the airport taf usually than take the meto's word for it, they just can't seem to nail this place down unless it's summer, while the taf is usually (but not always) right on the nose with their forecast.

Met office are slightly random, Forcast heavy snow 12.00 onward for haydock, its currently a puddle fest outside.

They also say heavy snow for 1200 runcorn includ hale..its quite funny really

Liverpool airport TAF: 090504Z 0906/1006 15009KT 9000 SCT025 BECMG 0906/0908 9999 BECMG 0908/0911 7000 -RA TEMPO 0908/0917 4000 FZRA RA BKN010 BECMG 0917/0920 4000 RA BKN008 TEMPO 0922/1004 1200 RASN SN BKN002 BECMG 1004/1006 6000 -RA

Edited February 9, 2012 by HotCuppa

[GreyCrag]

BBC Cumbria travel now stating numerous accidents and roads becoming congested due to ice.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/travelnews/cumbria/roads/unplanned

[swainclubber]

Met office are slightly random, Forcast heavy snow 12.00 onward for haydock, its currently a puddle fest outside.

ha. heavy rain here also now

[Martin M]

Met office are slightly random, Forcast heavy snow 12.00 onward for haydock, its currently a puddle fest outside.

Saintpeter said the same, then realised it was ice. I'd go and find out before you realise the hard way

Edited February 9, 2012 by Martin M

[cheshire snow]

looking at things for today i tink the meto have things spot on

even thought temps across the region are 0c or just under the uppers

just dont support snow,however as the afternoon wears on the uppers are set

to drop turning rain to snow at the moment areas further south in the region are at

risk of snow through the evening and overnight before clearing the south of the region

from around 0400 fri morning

EDIT

Manchester airport taf going for snow later

C.S

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Saintpeter said the same, then realised it was ice. I'd go and find out before you realise the hard way

that dead true check as i found out when slipping on a puddle :winky:

[gearbox1002]

Saintpeter said the same, then realised it was ice. I'd go and find out before you realise the hard way

I walked the dog its really puddles, there is ice crystals formed on sheds, but everything else is rather wet.

[Storm Animal]

Very light rain here over past hour and temp -0.5oC

[UV-RAY]

Just counting the days down to spring now.

[cheshire snow]

one way or another i think it will be busy in here later

C.S

[shadowfax]

Raining in Bury, can see drops in puddles outside office window.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/97-road-accidents-as-ice-causes-problems-across-cumbria-1.922994?referrerPath=home 97!!!