East Anglia & The Southeast - Regional Discussion

[Guest archiesmummy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=320&y=150

these are the short ensembles for london

waiting for the full versions

these are cold to very cold

also have a small snow risk for sunday

Yes I do like! I just hope they don't let us down, Sunday not far away now! Although saw something today to say is only going to be for a couple of days then back to boring weather :'(

[john pike]

hi archiesmummy

this is more than 2 days

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

the fax chart shows the stuff from the east moving west

this is being forced towards us from the huge high pressure

to our east north east

the charts are struggling like they did before

with weather from the east

i reckon this could last a little while when it starts

much colder sunday onwards

Edited March 1, 2012 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

much colder sunday onwards

certainly looks that way....

[yamkin]

hi archiesmummy

this is more than 2 days

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

the fax chart shows the stuff from the east moving west

this is being forced towards us from the huge high pressure

to our east north east

the charts are struggling like they did before

with weather from the east

i reckon this could last a little while when it starts

much colder sunday onwards

As expected JP. I think the cold conditions will be more prolonged

[feb1991blizzard]

hi archiesmummy

this is more than 2 days

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

the fax chart shows the stuff from the east moving west

this is being forced towards us from the huge high pressure

to our east north east

the charts are struggling like they did before

with weather from the east

i reckon this could last a little while when it starts

much colder sunday onwards

Although its not nailed yet, there has been a significant shift with the GFS / GEFS and the FAX, i would like to see more support from the ECM to be honest, before making a judgement, the other problem is that although there are -10 uppers for the eastern half of England on the 18z operational, i see a similar slack flow to early feb not being able to penetrate showers inland although plenty of room for upgrades / downgrades before next week so still all to play for and if a potent cold spell were to verify, it would dispel any nonsense that as soon as the clock strikes 0 hrs on the 1st of March, you cannot get an easterly that delivers -10 uppers and widspread cold / snow into England.

[Steve C]

I just don't see this very cold event -only that it'll become much cooler than recently, which is kind of expected? :huh:

I think Sunday to Tuesday will be quite cold with rain or showers, some of which may be a bit wintry - miserable weather, although we obviously need rain.

On charts I'm looking at, the Azores high, or at least an offshoot of it, seems to be at least as influential in the outlook as any Russian / Scandinavian block. Have the charts changed?

Edited March 1, 2012 by Speed67

[Snowangel-MK]

...meantime it's really foggy in this region...

Widespread and locally dense fog will affect many parts of southern and central England this morning including the outskirts of London with visibility below 100m in many places. This may lead to some disruption to travel. The denser fog patches should thin during the mid to late morning.

Yellow Warning of Fog for London & South East England

Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, Greater London, Reading, Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Milton Keynes

Yellow Warning of Fog for East of England

Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Peterborough & Norfolk

Issued at - 01 Mar 2012, 07:57

Valid from - 01 Mar 2012, 08:00

Valid to - 01 Mar 2012, 10:00

[Steve C]

Lovely sunny, mild, calm morning here.

Typical that it all goes downhill for the weekend!

[Pixel]

'Spring Watch' is fun - Amazing how predictions can change in just 3 days.. here are temperature ensembles in an animated image starting with a relative flat line (with plenty of scatter) on Tues 28th Feb

red line = 30yrs average

white line = present model output average

Bottom spikes indicate predicted precipitation

How low can it go 4th March onwards? oh and will it snow? need -5c ish or a chance of that - plus some cloud I believe :lol:

[Steve C]

'Spring Watch' is fun - Amazing how predictions can change in just 3 days.. here are temperature ensembles in an animated image starting with a relative flat line (with plenty of scatter) on Tues 28th Feb

red line = 30yrs average

white line = present model output average

Bottom spikes indicate predicted precipitation

How low can it go 4th March onwards? oh and will it snow? need -5c ish or a chance of that - plus some cloud I believe :lol:

Interesting. So it's basically saying that ( on average ) London has a reasonable chance of a short term wintry event ( a day or two max ) with temperatures likely to revert to average or slightly above in the next couple of weeks - I know the temperature is at the 850hPa level, but assume that there will be correlation with the surface level.

[Pixel]

Interesting. So it's basically saying that ( on average ) London has a reasonable chance of a short term wintry event ( a day or two max ) with temperatures likely to revert to average or slightly above in the next couple of weeks - I know the temperature is at the 850hPa level, but assume that there will be correlation with the surface level.

The 2 metre temperature projections can be viewed on many models but many have found that this time of year they can't be relied on as things change very quickly as has been witnessed these last few weeks. If it's any consolation I've witnessed snow here falling at 3c ! ..didn't hang around long tho !

The temperature projections at the 850hpa level (aprox 1500 metres) can be an indication of imminent warmth or cold depending on where they originate from.. how that transfers to ground level and for how long it stays this time of year is dependent on many variables.

I'm just a model watcher for my sins… and have learnt that pinning down snow beyond T48 (2 days) this time of year is nigh on impossible as the weather patterns are so volatile - but it's interesting to see influences change over time. From high up in the atmosphere (stratosphere) right down through the levels, the Jet, the 850hps's then down to IMBY (in my back yard)

Many folk regard the GFS as the 'comic' of all models, a pinata full of promises but sometimes we get lucky - The 0z and the 12z GFS outputs (early morning and late afternoon) are a personal favourite until T24 then it's satellite, radar and a glass of mulled wine

[Suburban Streamer]

looks like the uppers and thicknesses are not cold enough when the precip from the shortwave comes over on sun, but gfs still keen to push snow showers inland from the east/ne on mon/tuesday when there is good agreement that we will be under uppers of somewhere between -4 and -8 and sub 528 dam.

anyway with such huge differences between the models regarding the track of the shortwave over the weekend, i suppose we can still say anything can happen.

fingers and toes still crossed for snow on northern edge, but this mornings charts dont really like this idea.

Edited March 1, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Suburban Streamer]

12z gfs has the colder uppers moving in earlier than this mornings two runs and more like yesterdays 12z:

and few hours later

its a very brief affair however!

Edited March 1, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

good agreement to the 5th-6th

10 degree spread on the 7th

maybe ecm will help when out

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

i think the fax chart later will give a better clue

[Suburban Streamer]

ecm not feeling it for snow in our region from the weekends system on the 12z:

it does fancy snow on wednesday....i know its t150...sorry i couldnt resist!

[john pike]

this is where the problem is on the 7th

huge block to our east

azores high close by

huge low pressure covering most of usa

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

see 144

if u made a forecast from this u would say

maybe cold and snowy

maybe wet and warm

maybe dry and sunny

fax chart will give hopefully a better idea

Edited March 1, 2012 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

Widespread and locally dense fog will affect many parts of southern and central England this morning including the outskirts of London with visibility below 100m in many places. This may lead to some disruption to travel. The denser fog patches should thin during the mid to late morning.

Yellow Warning of Fog for East of England

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

Yellow Warning of Fog for London & South East England

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

Issued at - 01 Mar 2012, 21:59

Valid from - 02 Mar 2012, 00:00

Valid to - 02 Mar 2012, 10:00

[john pike]

the fax chart at 120

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa-ukmo-prognosis/PPVO89.gif?31415

gfs 120

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-120.png?18

ecm120

http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?01-0

anyone got a clue?

i havent

Edited March 1, 2012 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

anyone got a clue?

i havent

NO, I haven't either......can anyone ?

[Guest archiesmummy]

Essex weather going for wintry showers on Monday but say way too mild for anything to settle.......

[john pike]

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa-ukmo-prognosis/PPVK89.gif?31415

sundays fax chart looks very wet for the south east

http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa-ukmo-prognosis/PPVM89.gif?31415

monday shows east north east winds after the low goes through

will be cold but will there be any precipitation

[Suburban Streamer]

If my name was yamkin I would say it shows a lot of snow and croyden council have been told to prepare for armageddon:)

Seriously tho I think its safe to say the gfs stands alone in bringing snow late weekend. Ecm and fax charts suggest that the cold uppers will not reach us till Monday wen its too late. When the bulk of the Precip hits us, ecm & fax keep the snow-conducive uppers and dam to our north. Like I said earlier fingers crossed that the gfs is correct! But its looking unlikely

Edited March 1, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Snowangel-MK]

Shall we have a big ramp anyway....just because we can

[Suburban Streamer]

Shall we have a big ramp anyway....just because we can

Hell yeah! Gonna be 20 inches and a week off work:)

[john pike]

that is the closest i can see to the 120 fax chart

run 11

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0

now thats a ramp

run 11 continued

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0

from run

only clips from link but you get the idea

Edited March 1, 2012 by john pike