Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 part 3

[Stuart]

Thanks for the update Coast

[Lewis]

Owww no, don't mention the 'i' word!!!

No forecast from ESTOFEX SkyWarn or TORRO today? UKASF have a slight risk:

I'll have a look at some charts in a moment, pressure is diving here at 2.9mb/hr as the low passes

That chart from UKASF is spot on, it paints the entire picture as i've just looked at the NMM, energy for inland areas of England & Wales, eastern coastal regions less so, due to an onshore sea breeze, and on top of that there's a huge cap.

Should be good for the South & South East, you guy's are getting spoilt ain't you, as long as I get in on the action when we get our first plume/imports of the year then I'm all good, if not i'll be either relocating London, or my house =P

[Coast]

Forgot to add this one, which may give us a funnel or two:

[A.J]

That chart from UKASF is spot on, it paints the entire picture as i've just looked at the NMM, energy for inland areas of England & Wales, eastern coastal regions less so, due to an onshore sea breeze, and on top of that there's a huge cap.

Should be good for the South & South East, you guy's are getting spoilt ain't you, as long as I get in on the action when we get our first plume/imports of the year then I'm all good, if not i'll be either relocating London, or my house =P

Yes, top work from Dan (Staplehurst) and the guys at UKASF, their forecasts over this recent convective spell have been spot on...Certainly making big strides forward!.....Looking forward to reading NW's very own Nick Finnis' convective forecast for today

[Robbie Garrett]

Imports, Imports, Imports < To Coast!! HAHA

This one looks interesting, chance of a powerful squall line setting up?? Bit similar to the one we had in the South East in December I think it was. Was near tropical rainfall.

[Coast]

Imports, Imports, Imports < To Coast!! HAHA

I give up on imports, all show and no go! Waisted too many hours radar watching when things die in the Channel. So to avoid disappointment, I'm keeping to our shores for a while.

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 24/04/2012 11:00

Valid: 24/04/2012 11:00 - 25/04/2011 00:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Large upper trough continues to dominate across Nern Europe, with a slack cyclonic flow covering the UK on Tuesday, in between low over near continent continuing east and new low moving into the SW approaches tonight.

... UK and IRELAND ...

Pool of 500mb temps circa -30C across UK will create steep lapse rates today and the airmass present will become unstable with surface heating, as sunny spells spread in from the west ... so scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop through this afternoon across many areas during max diurnal heating. Showers/storms maybe accompanied by hail and gusty winds.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

Also here: http://www.netweathe...85d1a84fbe57b62

[Harry]

Plenty of time for Upgrades/Downgrades... but one to watch.

Robbie, put it this way...if those charts take that resemblence come the weekend, I shall be a phenomenally happy bunny and be off down to the coast like a shot Monday night!!

Pretty much everything on those charts screams potential - look at the wind flow off of the continent...absolutely perfect! Plus, the amount of cold channel any storms would pass would be minimal!!!

We can certainly wait in hope that the charts continue in that vain!

[Lynxus]

Looks like some nice little showers popping up over wales!

lovely bit of convection going on.. glad its only 11:30

Edited April 24, 2012 by Lynxus

[Eskimo]

Need to get this disgusting mess out of the East before we see anything convective.

[Coast]

Need to get this disgusting mess out of the East

Thanks - none taken!!!!

[Harry]

Need to get this disgusting mess out of the East before we see anything convective.

Indeed Eskimo, it's looking immensely stubborn!!!

[Robbie Garrett]

Robbie, put it this way...if those charts take that resemblence come the weekend, I shall be a phenomenally happy bunny and be off down to the coast like a shot Monday night!!

Pretty much everything on those charts screams potential - look at the wind flow off of the continent...absolutely perfect! Plus, the amount of cold channel any storms would pass would be minimal!!!

We can certainly wait in hope that the charts continue in that vain!

Doesn't look as good this morning in terms of severity, but some CAPE over the UK now to keep things strong.. That's what I was thinking though, if there's 3000 cape over the other side of the Channel, and an MCS/MCC drifted over... it would still last becuase it uses the energy from itself to keep going (am I correct??)

Plenty of time for re-upgrade but the chances are now for at least a massive plume come early may, whenever it will be with the trough to our west (perfect for Summer)

If this is the case come Monday, do you have a car... I'll help pay fuel and we go chase some big ass MCS/MCC!

[Convective]

Something definitely looks like its going to happen here today! No wind at all and the Cb's are MASSIVE right above me!

Edited April 24, 2012 by Convective

[TonyH]

Should be interesting for the West Midlands as this little zone over Wales edges east, not so good for here though, although we should get a pleasant afternoon, it's been nice this morning bar a little hail.

[Marcus_surfer]

Few small storms to the northwest of here looks very thundery but missed here by 10 miles or so

[Harry]

Doesn't look as good this morning in terms of severity, but some CAPE over the UK now to keep things strong.. That's what I was thinking though, if there's 3000 cape over the other side of the Channel, and an MCS/MCC drifted over... it would still last becuase it uses the energy from itself to keep going (am I correct??)

Plenty of time for re-upgrade but the chances are now for at least a massive plume come early may, whenever it will be with the trough to our west (perfect for Summer)

If this is the case come Monday, do you have a car... I'll help pay fuel and we go chase some big ass MCS/MCC!

IF (emphasise on the word IF) something things look promising Monday afternoon/evening then yes will definitely be taking a trip down towards the coast and yes of course you'll be more than welcome to join me.

That of course is IF we get favourable patterns and IF something looks like kicking off....I feel myself ramping up over the prospect even though models do not point to a great deal happening for us (that my friends fits nicely with the OED definition of "desperation") lol

[Paul R]

Just had a rumble of thunder in Cardiff.

EDIT: Getting more. Stuff moving in from the west it seems.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Paul Roberts

[Marcus_surfer]

Rumble here not raining but surrounded by two growing storms

[Coast]

IF (emphasise on the word IF) something things look promising Monday afternoon/evening then yes will definitely be taking a trip down towards the coast and yes of course you'll be more than welcome to join me.

Too far away for me to get that excited yet, but come Saturday I'll be looking at some of the sources to see what we might have in store.

General overview says:

[Liam Ellis]

Some thunder here in Cardiff!

[Coast]

Just had a rumble of thunder in Cardiff.

EDIT: Getting more. Stuff moving in from the west it seems.

Rumble here not raining but surrounded by two growing storms

Seems to be following the trend and charts from earlier today

[SteveB]

Looks like the storms are again being killed off by the Bristol channel.

Looks nice for Wales though

[Stormeh]

Heavy hail shower here, very dark to my east. Wont be suprised if I hear a rumble of thunder

[Kookylou]

Loud thunder here