Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 part 3

[Aaron]

A similar probability being shown for this time next week also but that is a long time off.

Tomorrow could spring a few surprises. GFS has a convergence line setting up during the afternoon from Kent to Cumbria right over the top of where I am. There is a small amount of CAPE too so who knows, I may just get to hear a rumble late tomorrow afternoon.

Wow, I hope so.

[Kain]

Hey, I have to add onto my 10 thunderstorms so far... lol!!

Harry, we need one of those french MCS imports, literally a 9-12hr overnight monster... will be good to not get any sleep ahah!

Ive never wanted to punch someone more on a forum...in the nicest possible way of course Robbie

[Robbie Garrett]

Christ, when was the last time the UK witnessed one of them?

Ive never wanted to punch someone more on a forum...in the nicest possible way of course Robbie

I think May 2008, Harry should be able to back that up or someone else. But the last decent one I remember was possibly late 90s.

Kain, sorry... I get what you mean. But I suspect it's all to do with location rather than me personally haah!! What happened over the weekend anyway? I was working. Did anyone get any more storms?

[Supacell]

Christ, when was the last time the UK witnessed one of them?

Was it June 28th 2005?

[Robbie Garrett]

Was it June 28th 2005?

I remember either 2005/2006 being a very active 2 years. But there was an MCS over 'Reading according to one video on youtube in 2008.'

I stand correct regarding last year being an MCS, 28th June 2011. I believe that was just a row of very tall single cell thunderstorms. By definition.

It would be good to sort out a list, of the MCS the UK have had.

[Supacell]

Its not really on topic for this thread but one of the best ones I have seen in recent years was the 10th May 2006 MCS that started life around Reading and moved westwards. I caught it around Swindon area and there was loads of lightning. I saw lightning strike a tree as I was watching it.

As for tomorrow, I am no expert but I think it would be classed as a low risk outlook for storm activity. Still, I have seen nothing yet this year so will happily clutch at straws.

[Sprites]

I remember either 2005/2006 being a very active 2 years. But there was an MCS over 'Reading according to one video on youtube in 2008.'

I stand correct regarding last year being an MCS, 28th June 2011. I believe that was just a row of very tall single cell thunderstorms. By definition.

It would be good to sort out a list, of the MCS the UK have had.

Weather magazine 53 from 1998 had an article Mesoscale Convective Systems over the u.k. , even bigger than an MCS is a MCC

[Eskimo]

Weather magazine 53 from 1998 had an article Mesoscale Convective Systems over the u.k. , even bigger than an MCS is a MCC

Yes a Mesoscale Convective Complex, VERY rare for the UK.

[Sprites]

Weather magazine 53 from 1998 had an article Mesoscale Convective Systems over the u.k. , even bigger than an MCS is a MCC

i dont think a MCC has occured in the u.k. in living memory, if ever...

[Eskimo]

i dont think a MCC has occured in the u.k. in living memory, if ever...

Usually you need a lot of land for the damn thing to grow, unfortunately the UK's landmass is obviously very small.

[Sprites]

Usually you need a lot of land for the damn thing to grow, unfortunately the UK's landmass is obviously very small.

yes i guess in theory an MCC could be imported from France, its more common in the u.s. i believe

[Love Snow]

Nice youtube video

[Harry]

I think May 2008, Harry should be able to back that up or someone else. But the last decent one I remember was possibly late 90s.

Kain, sorry... I get what you mean. But I suspect it's all to do with location rather than me personally haah!! What happened over the weekend anyway? I was working. Did anyone get any more storms?

IMO, the last big proper MCS monster was back (I think) in May/June 2005, when I was taking my IB exams. There were certainly some big MCS' during the early noughties but very sparse through the last half.

The 6th August 2008 storms were up there with one of the best in recent years, sparking off at around 7 in the evening and continuing in a line well on into the early hours - while I only enjoyed the first 60-90 minutes overhead, parts of C/E Kent, E Essex and parts of Suffolk and Norfolk enjoyed it well into the early hours, provided with at its peak a flash of lightning every 2-3 seconds (I know, I stood at the top of a hill and counted in disbelief!!)

I just hope that we can have one of the monsters of the 90s - for those who haven't lived in the SE quarter or indeed along the southern half of England and Wales, I can assure you there aren't many things more scary in the UK - rain so heavy it's just a constant rumble and a virtual white out outside (at night!!), blinding strobe lightning which leaves you temporarily blinded, thunder peels so deep and explosive they rattle everything to kingdom come including your very innerds - not to mention the fact that pretty much every single orifice in the house is wide open because it's so oppressively hot and humid, making every minor detail amplified.....yeah, those were the days (unfortunately mostly when I was young and a major brontophobe).

If mother nature would just chuck one of those our way this year I'd be eternally merciful!!

[Supacell]

That is a fantastic video Love Snow! I was in awe watching that. I would love to see a storm like that this year. Wouldn't get anything that good around here but would travel to the South east if there were storms of that magnitude forecasted.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Supacell

[Allseasons-Si]

Is there a thread where we can view storm footage,it would be nice to have all of our clips in it,just thought it would be a good idea

by the way,thats a good clip there love snow

[Wilxy]

That is one amazing storm on video there loved watching every second of it

[Lewis]

For anyone that ain't seen one of my CG'S I captured chasing end of last week, here it is again

Edited April 23, 2012 by UK Storm Chasers

[A.J]

There is already a long standing thread for posting storm footage/pictures....It saves footage from being lost in this thread which is aimed more at current convective discussion & forecasts ...... http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/49168-your-video-and-storm-pictures/

[Lewis]

There is already a long standing thread for posting storm footage/pictures....It saves footage from being lost in this thread which is aimed more at current convective discussion & forecasts ...... http://forum.netweat...storm-pictures/

Sorry Aj, could you remove the post please and i'll post it on that thread now.

thanks

[Robbie Garrett]

Nice youtube video

Thats the bugger I'd been looking for, found it in August... very rare event, memories of a childhood though.

IMO, the last big proper MCS monster was back (I think) in May/June 2005, when I was taking my IB exams. There were certainly some big MCS' during the early noughties but very sparse through the last half.

The 6th August 2008 storms were up there with one of the best in recent years, sparking off at around 7 in the evening and continuing in a line well on into the early hours - while I only enjoyed the first 60-90 minutes overhead, parts of C/E Kent, E Essex and parts of Suffolk and Norfolk enjoyed it well into the early hours, provided with at its peak a flash of lightning every 2-3 seconds (I know, I stood at the top of a hill and counted in disbelief!!)

I just hope that we can have one of the monsters of the 90s - for those who haven't lived in the SE quarter or indeed along the southern half of England and Wales, I can assure you there aren't many things more scary in the UK - rain so heavy it's just a constant rumble and a virtual white out outside (at night!!), blinding strobe lightning which leaves you temporarily blinded, thunder peels so deep and explosive they rattle everything to kingdom come including your very innerds - not to mention the fact that pretty much every single orifice in the house is wide open because it's so oppressively hot and humid, making every minor detail amplified.....yeah, those were the days (unfortunately mostly when I was young and a major brontophobe).

If mother nature would just chuck one of those our way this year I'd be eternally merciful!!

Hopefully things can change this year Harry, because let's be fair... the population of the South East/Southern countries and East Anglia (Most likely to get MCS Imports) are probably not used to seeing such rare weather events, especially the ones that I 'we' witnessed in the late 90s. They'd probably **** a brick if we got an MCS, let alone an MCC (that would probably scare me)

I think the closest storm we've had to something similar, was the Belgium MCC (Or was that just an MCS) in 2009?? It was something close to 30,000 lightning strikes. If only that drifted towards the UK, and this happened in May. But a very rare synoptic setup I guess.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vlMW1dUivE&feature=related

Let's be fair, there is quite a coherent threat of such a storm heading this way..... it would caused significant damage, the conditions on 27th June 2011 where probably near perfect for it. 2500 cape and -8 LI

Edit:

I also have a funny feeling, this low could set off a very severe MCS/MCC for Belgium/France. If only that Low could nudge further west... then we'd be in for the first MCS I've seen in donkeys years. What you think Harry??

and again...

Some seriously mouthwatering potential coming up..... hopefully it's out by a couple of hundred miles So we can put on an Olympic Winning lightshow.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Allseasons-Si]

There is already a long standing thread for posting storm footage/pictures....It saves footage from being lost in this thread which is aimed more at current convective discussion & forecasts ...... http://forum.netweat...storm-pictures/

Thanks AJ

I have some footage on a backup disc,i will try to find

[A.J]

Sorry Aj, could you remove the post please and i'll post it on that thread now.

thanks

Hi Lewis, the thread is archived currently, I'll ask site/admin team to unlock it & pin it.....By all means carry on posting it here for the mo as the thread is quiet, hopefully tomorrow the old thread will be resurrected as it would better for footage to be in one place

[Robbie Garrett]

Also to add to my post above...Clicky

Good potential for import?? I seriously fancy the chances.!!

Plenty of time for Upgrades/Downgrades... but one to watch.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Coast]

Good potential for import?? I seriously fancy the chances.!!

Owww no, don't mention the 'i' word!!!

No forecast from ESTOFEX SkyWarn or TORRO today? UKASF have a slight risk:

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 2012-04-23 22:13:00

Valid: 2012-04-24 00:00:00 - 2012-04-24 23:59:00

Areas Affected:

MDT: C + NE Ireland, C + S Northern Ireland

SLGT: Most of the United Kingdom and Ireland, excluding western and eastern coasts.

Synopsis:

While the surface low continues to fill and migrate eastwards across the Low Countries, an upper low will become centred over Scotland with a shortwave running southwards across Ireland.

Discussion:

Cold mid-levels (-31C at 500mb) are once again present across the United Kingdom, with steep lapse rates as surface temperatures rise in response to daytime heating, generating 500-700J/kg CAPE. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across many parts, with particular focus along local convergence zones. Despite ELTs down to -40C, given rather weak shear most showers/storms will be poorly organised giving some sferic activity, but not for any prolonged length of time.

However, across Ireland a shortwave trough will move southwards, coupled with surface convergence and thus providing widespread ascent. As a result, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form here, and with better shear in the southern half of Ireland (up to 40kts DLS in southern Munster during the afternoon) there is likely to be better organisation of convection here, resulting in more widespread and longer-lived lightning activity.

Residual wrap-around occlusion will be slow to clear SE England, and here any notable convective activity will be late in the day as clearance arrives from the west. Severe weather is unlikely, although CZ-induced funnels are possible. Hail is likely in many of the showers, locally >2.0cm in diameter over Ireland where better separation of up/downdrafts is expected.

I'll have a look at some charts in a moment, pressure is diving here at 2.9mb/hr as the low passes

[Coast]

Here we go then, a few charts for you to ponder what today might bring and where:

Close, but not close enough????

Not a lot of CAPE expect for Ireland?

Maybe Wales later?

I'm going to say unlikely for imports, low possibility of something in Eastern Kent today and slight chance in Ireland and Wales later