Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 part 3

[Convective]

Nothing quite as intense as what has been around the mainland these last dew weeks however these have just set up:

[Wilxy]

Skies gone pitch black to S now and looks very thundery wondering whether the rain will turn thundery.

[Cheshire Freeze]

To all those moaning about a lack of storms....you want to try living in Crewe. It never thunders and the towns about as appealing as Ann Widecome in a pair of frenchies gyrating 3 inches from your face

Edited April 24, 2012 by CreweCold

[SteveB]

That nice little storm that has just passed through Bridgewater is heading North, but I think it's just going to pass to the East of me.

Tomorrow looks fun though

Edited April 24, 2012 by SteveB

[Aaron]

To all those moaning about a lack of storms....you want to try living in Crewe. It never thunders and the towns about as appealing as Ann Widecome in a pair of frenchies gyrating 3 inches from your face

That doesn't make me feel any better.. especially when I've only seen one flash and heard one rumble.. during a 10 minute hail shower in March.

[Cheshire Freeze]

That doesn't make me feel any better.. especially when I've only seen one flash and heard one rumble.. during a 10 minute hail shower in March.

Well if nothing else it paints a picture of something which could be far worse than any storm drought could ever be......

Edited April 24, 2012 by CreweCold

[lboaty]

Looks like I am in for a treat here in South Nottingham hopefully later according to the radar. Fingers crossed.

[Costa Del Fal]

Thursday comes with some moderate shear too especially on the Southern and Eastern section of the convective zone so some more longer lived cells and organisation possible.

[Jane Louise]

Skywarn has a warning out and so does netweather for tomorrows potential.

Netweather-

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerthome;sess=

Skywarn

Last Update: 1400UTC Tuesday 24th April 2012

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #014

ISSUED: 1400UTC TUESDAY 24TH APRIL 2012 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ENGLAND

WALES

CHANNEL ISLANDS

IN EFFECT FROM 0100UTC UNTIL 2359UTC WEDNESDAY 25TH APRIL 2012

UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING A WELL-SHEARED OCCLUDING FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY WITH INTENSE PRECIPITATION.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FLASH FLOODING...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES...LIGHTNING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONFIDENCE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE RISK THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW PRESSURE ~972MB DEVELOPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH OF ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS, A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING FRONT COULD BRING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 40MM OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN ENGLAND AND WALES, ESPECIALLY NEAR TO COASTS. A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS AS 850MB WINDS OF 50KTS ROUND THE CIRCULATION UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE AND STRONG VORTICITY AS THE CYCLONIC JET NOSES UP FROM THE SOUTH, PROVIDING AMPLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ORGANISED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THOUGH INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY LIMITED TO LOW TO MID LEVELS ALONG THE BACK OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. WITHIN THIS FRONT, MEAN WINDS OF 40MPH WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS UP TO 60MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ENHANCING RAINFALL, ALSO ACROSS HIGHER GROUND FURTHER NORTH IN ENGLAND AND WALES LATER IN THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT, A DEEPER BUT ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED CONVECTION BRINGING FURTHER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SATURATED AREAS. THIS COULD BECOME MORE ORGANISED ALONG CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND, UNDER INCREASING DLS OF UP TO 30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON; WHILE SUFFICIENT LLS EXISTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS FOR BRIEF FUNNELS AND WEAK TORNADOES. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Carl46Wrexham]

It's been said before, but it really needs saying again, the storm shield that covers North East Wales and parts of both Cheshire and Shropshire is something to behold. It is seemingly unbreakable.

Because of this, and after nearly 4 years of repeated disappointments and let downs, I am more than a tad sceptical re the possibilities being mentioned for tomorrow.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Carl43Wrexham

[I Cumbria Marra I]

i havent heard thunder since last summer

[Andy Bown]

Quite a different set up in this region this evening than I was expecting.

Usually when a LOW is approaching from the Atlantic and winds back to the S/SW there is a period of calm, dry and clear weather

before the frontal cloud arrives, however much of Somerset and now Wiltshire has been affected by thundery or heavy downpours

with the initial frontal rain not too far behind knocking on the SW tip of Cornwall.

[MP-R]

Pitch black to the south and east of here with undulating clouds appearing. No thunder or lightning signs yet though.

[Aaron]

Quite a different set up in this region this evening than I was expecting.

Usually when a LOW is approaching from the Atlantic and winds back to the S/SW there is a period of calm, dry and clear weather

before the frontal cloud arrives, however much of Somerset and now Wiltshire has been affected by thundery or heavy downpours

with the initial frontal rain not too far behind knocking on the SW tip of Cornwall.

Why do you capitalise low for?

[IanR]

i havent heard thunder since last summer

Thats because you are classed as North West England, those three words will scare off any storms within a 100 mile radius we really are the most storm deprived area of them all ,at least we do not need to worry about ever being struck by lightening

[MP-R]

I think the cell to the south of here isn't electrified anymore. Still looks very ominous though.

[Aceman]

Quite a different set up in this region this evening than I was expecting.

Usually when a LOW is approaching from the Atlantic and winds back to the S/SW there is a period of calm, dry and clear weather

before the frontal cloud arrives, however much of Somerset and now Wiltshire has been affected by thundery or heavy downpours

with the initial frontal rain not too far behind knocking on the SW tip of Cornwall.

hi andy, would this imply some uber stormy conditions tonight?

[Phil UK]

To all those moaning about a lack of storms....you want to try living in Crewe. It never thunders and the towns about as appealing as Ann Widecome in a pair of frenchies gyrating 3 inches from your face

CreweCold...

I have had many crazy thoughts before but your idea of Anne Widdicombe gyrating in a pair of frenchies in your face is enough to put even the most die-hard weather fan off visiting Crewe. Or put off anything for that matter. The nightmares would haunt you forever. It would be like asking Cherie Blair and Theresa May to give an in-your-face smile.

Otherwise... Looked like a bruiser of a shower/storm coming out of Bromsgrove an hour or so ago but thanks to the Solihull atmospheric hairdryer. Nothing!!

Methinks I'll be in the NSC for a while yet I think. (Well I'm the sub-boss so I have no choice!)

Phil.

[Kain]

Worth an all night tonight to see what comes in?

[lfcdude]

just heavy rain in devizes no thunder yet

[DAVID SNOW]

Worth an all night tonight to see what comes in?

See post 702

[Aceman]

my w/s will shortly be online and will stay on over night if anyones tracking the storm and having a late one!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

'meh' would've won it hands down....lol

the hi-res models have tonight's showers continuing until well after dark, followed by tomorrow morning's deluge and then the prospect of maybe some decent thunderstorms for many parts (hopefully the West Midlands!) for tomorrow afternoon into the evening

showers hit me at Wildwood, 2.8 miles to the NW roads and paths bone dry in town

[Kain]

Probably a good time to start a new convective thread for tonights proceedings leading into tomorrows.

[Costa Del Fal]

Worth an all night tonight to see what comes in?

No, I wouldnt Imo. Tomorrow afternoon from about 3 could be interesting but I have a feeling there may be too much cloud around to initiate much convection.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Blizzards