Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2

[Andy Bown]

There must have been a front drifting around today that has sprung to life in the last few hours over Wales.

Interesting to run the radar from 14.00 and watch the rain developing.

Edited May 18, 2012 by Andy Bown

[Carl46Wrexham]

Rain is near torrential here....was not expecting this!

[legritter]

strange here tonight ,mighty large spots of rain but hardly any to get excited about ,looking at radar nothing showing for us but plenty of action over wales . i personaly think sunday could be slightly different to whats currently forecast . one to keep an eye on ,lets hope .cheers

[DubWeatherAddict]

Sudden Jump from the gfs for south england folks. Probably over cooked a good bit . But ye.. yous would be jammy telephone boxers if this pulled off.

* and here would be me watching it all unfold back here in Dublin * ...

Edited May 19, 2012 by DubWeatherAddict

[MP-R]

Sudden Jump from the gfs for south england folks. Probably over cooked a good bit . But ye.. yous would be jammy telephone boxers if this pulled off.

* and here would be me watching it all unfold back here in Dublin * ...

Oh brilliant, just while I'm in Madrid lol, that would be typical if it did come off. Slack easterlies do tend to be good for convection and thunderstorms provided there is sufficient insolation beforehand. 10th & 11th May 2006 featured a very similar setup.

[Keraunic]

Here in Norwich it is very warm and muggy and hazy. So, only going by my eyes and ears and experience these look like indications for a t storm .......maybe?

[Supacell]

Putting aside that it's well outside the reliable timeframe for convective storm prediction, those charts are deceiving- especially the calculated storm risk one. Though the boundary layer is modeled to be very warm and moist (which steepens lapse rates and increases CAPE) the air aloft is rather warm and dry (given fairly strong ridge), so convective potential would be greatly inhibited.

Agree with this. If you look at the precip charts it tells that story also. Although does show some possibilities in the SW and Wales at times.

[legritter]

afternoon gang ,is that mass over france heading our way .having difficulty today finding out information as my wife as been on computer and now its warning me that memory is low ,been buisy doing other things ,anybody got any info on tonights and tomorrows potential would be obliged ,cheers legritter

[VillagePlank]

Isle of Wight, Hampshire, perhaps - but nothing else for anyone else. Might rain a bit. 40% chance of the stuff still being thundery by the time it makes landfall at Isle of Wight.

Edited May 19, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[legritter]

CHEERS ,BOAR WRINKLESTORM ,lets just hope it peps up a bit for some of us ,but as you said isle of wight looking fair bet ,i might get the straws out of their box and do a bit of clutching YOU NEVER KNOW ,CHEERS .

[chapmanslade]

Isle of Wight, Hampshire, perhaps - but nothing else for anyone else. Might rain a bit. 40% chance of the stuff still being thundery by the time it makes landfall at Isle of Wight.

I would say 0% based on the fact it wasn't electrified in France

[fromey]

evening all.

gone really black here and towards warminster, some big drops of rain.

nothing showing on the radar!

cheers fromey

[Andy Bown]

evening all.

gone really black here and towards warminster, some big drops of rain.

nothing showing on the radar!

cheers fromey

There is now, don't forget the NW radar is 10 minutes delayed on real time and the Met Office one up to 45 minutes delayed!

Several very sharp showers have developed in the last half an hour, as of 19.25 radar there's one to the West of Frome, one over Mere/Gillingham,

one over Wilton/Salisbury and another at the edge of Warminster.

Going to be interesting to see if they develop further or decay, have surely formed as a result of wind convergence

Edited May 19, 2012 by Andy Bown

[legritter]

gone very dark here as well ,spits of rain now and again ,but nothing showing on radar .that area of rain aproaching from france channell ,is starting to break up a little .but looks like devon and dorset could get some later , also hampshire . looking foreward to tonights fax cheers .

[fromey]

There is now, don't forget the NW radar is 10 minutes delayed on real time and the Met Office one up to 45 minutes delayed!

Several very sharp showers have developed in the last half an hour, as of 19.25 radar there's one to the West of Frome, one over Mere/Gillingham,

one over Wilton/Salisbury and another at the edge of Warminster.

Going to be interesting to see if they develop further or decay, have surely formed as a result of wind convergence

Thanks, forgot that, my bad!!.

the shower over Salisbury seems to be growing, anybody down that way?

cheers fromey

[Keraunic]

Looking at the chart with my very amateur eye it looks like zilch in the way of storms for EA.

[legritter]

just had some small gusts of wind ,gone flat calm again but the odd thundery spot of rain ,showers firing up way to my s/east 50 .50 whether they will come too much ,truckers reporting hvy showers across salis plain area ,waiting for 10pm loop to see if anything is abrewing ,cheers .

[Convective]

Hey all, is there any chance of thunder today or even heavy showers today because I can see an anvil above the hills..?

[biddie]

bbc says possible thundery rain early hours of tomorrow

[Eskimo]

bbc says possible thundery rain early hours of tomorrow

Really? Been on every rainfall projection model and it doesn't even show a whiff. I know there's some thundery rain in the southeast over France but that looks to be breaking up.

[weatherobsuk]

A few cells running up through Northern France at the moment. Beefy anvils across Luxembourg and Germany aswell moving slightly offset northwards.

[staplehurst]

GFS really "going for it" on its convective precip progs for mid-week's potential. Notice, though, that it models the more intense precip over the Pennines and towards the south coast, where topographic uplift and sea-breeze convergence aid in the initiation of deep convection. Being a global model, however, the GFS's precip prog is rather broad - modeled generally where CAPE and low level converging come together.

In reality I'd expect storms (if any were to develop) to be very much isolated, given fairly robust ridge and relatively warm and dry air aloft.

Yeah, I'm not overly keen on it either. An isolated one might just about be possible, but as usual the GFS is going to high on the dewpoints, and if you were to nudge them down by 1.5-2C, you wouldn't be generating any showers due to the capping according to the forecast soundings. Equally, though, it is plausible with light winds and strong insolation that daytime maxima could be a couple of degrees higher than the GFS is going for, which counteracts that balance between T and T_D somewhat

[scotteboi]

Are those storms over the channel going to make it to us?

[Eskimo]

Are those storms over the channel going to make it to us?

I would bet anything that they don't.

[Aaron]

Storm risk for Wednesday