Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2

[Robbie Garrett]

Metoffice now has a trough moving through from your location Coast to Edinburgh with +SHRA +TSRA

Edited May 23, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[VillagePlank]

I think that surface heating this afternoon is the key; whilst some people will get there, the majority of us won't, unfortunately. 850hPas strongly support temps only reaching 25C when we need a degree or so more for convection to initiate. Troughs moving over during the night might help, but it seems doubtful to me.

Here's the covergence zone (CZ) on the south coast,

Be nice to live on the Isle of Wight, today, I reckon.

Edited May 23, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Eskimo]

Need to get this murk out the way. It's horrible to see people basking in the clear blue skies when Buntingford will inevitably be the last one to have the skies clear.

[Coast]

We certainly are getting pretty clear skies and brilliant sunshine down here, so I expect the surface heat to be a good contributory ingredient in any recipe for something later on for my particular location (or West from here along the coast, depending where the CZ ends up).

[john175]

morning everyone. hope you are all enjoying the sun

not been on for a while , glorious day here in Edinburgh . just seen the forecast and its giving me a 57 % storm chance, not the best but i hope we get something , haven't had a storm since last July .

[weatherobsuk]

Looks to be a similar set-up here in the Pennines during midsummer 2009 I believe it was. When DPs were transitioned into the mid layers and a mixture of heating & lift from the Pennines sparked off a isolated TCU which turned into a CB across the northwest after only 2 hours of development.

No signs of a Cu field yet anywhere on the vis images, but between 1-4pm is the trigger point going from the Met's forecast. 60% risk north of here around the Bleaklow area. With north London having a good 70% chance in the same time-frame. Any storms going off the GFS will be slow moving, if at all. Any track will see them move slowly south along the convergence.

[Mapantz]

Dewpoint of 16.3°C here right now. I like heat, but not this heat. It didn't drop below 21°C in my room, then the temp outside is at 17°C by 8:45am. Very uncomfortable.

Edited May 23, 2012 by Mapantz

[VillagePlank]

Isle of Wight, and slightly North and East is where the best chances are, I reckon,

Latest Obs for Gravesend is 18.3C. Herstmonceaux up to 21.1C already. The hersmonceaux midday ascents will be *very* interesting, today.

Edited May 23, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[syncmaster]

Temp of 14.5c by 9am, still murky and no sign of it burning off !!! Temp now 18c here in north lincs and slight NE breeze.

[Coast]

No signs of a Cu field yet anywhere on the vis images, but between 1-4pm is the trigger point going from the Met's forecast. 60% risk north of here around the Bleaklow area. With north London having a good 70% chance in the same time-frame. Any storms going off the GFS will be slow moving, if at all. Any track will see them move slowly south along the convergence.

15.00 hrs seems to be the projected sweet spot for CU potential:

[Coast]

Stuck in the office today so any potential for storms in my area better be well after work! I'm out and about visiting tomorrow, so maybe I could fit a bit of Surrey/Sussex observing and hunting in between??

[weatherobsuk]

Fair weather Cu now building around Buxton and across the southern Pennines going from the sat24 latest frames. Required trigger temp is 25'c and we've reached that here with a stronger breeze now starting to come in from the west as the convergence initiates. http://www.buxtonweather.fsnet.co.uk/buxtonview.jpg

[Mapantz]

Fair weather Cu now building around Buxton and across the southern Pennines going from the sat24 latest frames. Required trigger temp is 25'c and we've reached that here with a stronger breeze now starting to come in from the west as the convergence initiates. http://www.buxtonwea.../buxtonview.jpg

Got exactly the same here, if you follow my link below and click webcam.

[Richie V]

Wind turned almost 180 deg from E to WNW large cumuls in the last half hr.

[Sprites]

Wind turned almost 180 deg from E to WNW large cumuls in the last half hr.

i can sferics, ah its wrong side of the North sea..

[A.J]

yes convection has initiated with 3 distinct Cu fields forming....1) the Southern uplands in Scotland...2) The Pennines .....& 3) The Welsh mountains.....these areas will likely be the focal points for thunderstorm activity (if any)

[Eskimo]

Stubborn cloud now lifting and producing hazy sunshine, I absolutely hate these kind of days.

[john175]

yes convection has initiated with 3 distinct Cu fields forming....1) the Southern uplands in Scotland...2) The Pennines .....& 3) The Welsh mountains.....these areas will likely be the focal points for thunderstorm activity (if any)

so im guessing from this that its worth me getting the camera ready and doing some radar watching.

[Coast]

so im guessing from this that its worth me getting the camera ready and doing some radar watching.

Definitely radar watching!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

Then if things really pick up.......

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a cloud in sight here......though if the Pennine cloud field further develops I'll have a decent view of any anvils to the E/NE. Remember an anvil going up a couple of years ago....seemed fairly close but on the radar it signified a raging storm between Nottingham and Leicester. What a beast that must have been!

I'd take a punt at just east of Manchester seeing something if anything develops today

Edited May 23, 2012 by CreweCold

[weatherobsuk]

Kinder Downfall has historically produced good enough lift (when the wind swings westerly) to initiate storms across the plateau and beyond. Obviously the fact the Pennines gently slope upwards before hitting this 984ft natural barrier has a lot to play, but also the urban-heating effect from Manchester can be seen to initiate convection 11miles west of the Downfall. This region definitely has some strong 'micro-climatic' effects in subtlety.

[Aaron]

Sure is humid today, 25c, dew points in the high teens.. maybe 26c will be reached? who knows..

[Mapantz]

Sure is humid today, 25c, dew points in the high teens.. maybe 26c will be reached? who knows..

26 reached in your area, or just in general?

[Methuselah]

They were showing a possibility of isolated thunderyness around MK later this afternoon. So you never know - perhaps something might penetrate the cap?

But - gee whizz - it's oppressive!

[Snow free zone]

Clouds going up here now as well, over towards the S Lakes hills.