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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

here it is on radar, just to my east.....poor thing, looks lonely...lol

post-4149-0-71612300-1337795172.txt

Yeah can see that, but dosent look like moving westwards

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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

This was the 2nd storm moving in. As I've mentioned more towers going up to the south again so something else may fire shortly. Looking like a few of them are slightly further east so Edinburgh may be in with a shout if they can get going! :)

post-26-0-58724200-1337795911_thumb.jpg

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john175 Newbie

john175

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders
  • Location: Scottish Borders
Posted

Nice one! The views are probably best from the back off the storm when it moves off but I don't really have a view in that direction. Will see if I can get a few piccies up. Storm now moving away. Hoping a 3rd might form, can see more towers to the south. That would just be too much luck though I think...

yeah wish i had got the camera ready now.was planing to but didn't think anything would kick off as it rarely does here lol.rolleyes.gif

i can see the towers you are on about,they do look promising.maybe you will be third time lucky laugh.png

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Yup, north of Wolverhampton area is where I am keeping an eye on now!

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted

This was the 2nd storm moving in. As I've mentioned more towers going up to the south again so something else may fire shortly. Looking like a few of them are slightly further east so Edinburgh may be in with a shout if they can get going! smile.png

post-26-0-58724200-1337795911_thumb.jpg

Enjoy it mate, good to see us Scots are getting something, nice and sunny here, great day! :)

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

evening all,

has anybody looked at sat24.com, looks like a nuclear explosion has gone off over Holland and the low countries.

what the chances for us lot in the south over the next few days??

cheers

fromey

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

Yup, north of Wolverhampton area is where I am keeping an eye on now!

One shower has developed near Wolverhampton! Well, closer to Cannock and Stafford

Edited by Aaron
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

evening all,

has anybody looked at sat24.com, looks like a nuclear explosion has gone off over Holland and the low countries.

what the chances for us lot in the south over the next few days??

cheers

fromey

Wow that looks amazing on the satellite how its just expanded so much.

For us lot...well, there's a lot of decent CAPE and Li being wasted and it looks like staying warm and sunny for most of the weekend. Sunday night looking showery as some precipitation is modelled to move up from the S. Hard for me personally to tell whether this will be anything thundery or not. It'll be a bit cooler but on the models for now, there is still some decent energy about even at 1800hr Sunday evening. I think it is a case of we may need a couple more days of model runs to see how it develops.

As seen today though in Scotland - can't rule out a very isolated thundery shower if the conditions are right!

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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

3rd shower or storm now just gone up in the exact same area - I'm watching it build up :D

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A Winter's Tale Experienced

A Winter's Tale

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
Posted

Yup, looks like you're in for a cracking evening Ross. I wish I could spend the evening on the Campsies watching these showers but when a complete disection into RFC is about to go underway on BBC1, I suppose I can't miss those fireworks fly!

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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

Yup, looks like you're in for a cracking evening Ross. I wish I could spend the evening on the Campsies watching these showers but when a complete disection into RFC is about to go underway on BBC1, I suppose I can't miss those fireworks fly!

Just a heavy shower this time, think the energy is gone from the day time heating now. Still amazed at how lucky I was today! A repeat tomorrow would be great...

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

Shower has popped up east of brum!

Edit.. I say east.. I mean sorta south / easty

Edited by Lynxus
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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Just a heavy shower this time, think the energy is gone from the day time heating now. Still amazed at how lucky I was today! A repeat tomorrow would be great...

More likely if anything ;) Could see some great clouds to the east (they storms u had) nothing for here. Oddly wind despite being so breezy most of the day has totally died

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted

Hail in Birmingham with towers still going up

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Shower has popped up east of brum!

Edit.. I say east.. I mean sorta south / easty

Hail in Birmingham with towers still going up

I've got a good vantage point for those Cb's/Cu Congestus.....they looked beautiful lit up by the low sun, but seem to be collapsing now...atleast they do from my viewpoint

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Also some showers popping up down south near brighton

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

What are these congestus looking like at the moment? This kind of thing or wider?

P1080747cong.jpg

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted (edited)

I've got a good vantage point for those Cb's/Cu Congestus.....they looked beautiful lit up by the low sun, but seem to be collapsing now...atleast they do from my viewpoint

Ive took a video of the Stafford cap breaker from earlier which i'll upload later

its still got the feel of some aftersun convection...... aka May2011

Edited by Arnie Pie
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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Would appear that most of the fun is over (for today) before the reload tomorrow..........

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

The Beeb still keen to have one or two storms breaking out across the Pennines up until 11pm. Min overnight temps set to be 16'c so there's a little hope at least, but it's only very slight.

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

Missed the fun over Livingston as still in work.. Mightily impressive cloud structures, and from the water everywhere when I got here around 9 must have been some severe cloudburst action.

Fingers crossed for same tomorrow !

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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

Clouded over quite a bit here, especially to the east towards the Pennines.

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted (edited)

Monday looks far better IMHO for Thunderstorms. Enough CAPE/-LI to keep things going once they cross the channel,

h500slp.png

ukcapeli.png

ukcapeli.png

Perfecto for Imports I would say, with the wind direction...

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Regarding tomorrow, for some areas in the SW, the local BBC forecaster has tweeted:

_______________________________________________________________________

Ian Fergussonâ€@fergieweather

We're looking at another v warm (23-26C) story for Thurs with most districts dry, but an enhanced threat of a few t-storms PM...

and

W COUNTRY: Main chance for storms 2moro is Somerset up to Bristol & parts of Wilts, aided by convergence & upland heat sources (moors etc).

and finally in response to another tweet:

stress: v low point probability for storms! Most stay dry.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

So although it still looks like chances are still very slim, if the conditions are just right there may be a chance for an isolated thundery shower similar to what a few saw today.

Personally i'm more interested in knowing what the scenario is likely to be early next week, so hopefully will be clearer in a couple of days after some more model runs.

Edited by Chris K
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Could be a very active day on monday afternoon.

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