Summer 2012

[philglossop]

It's actually a really lovely day today here. Not wall to wall sunshine- but it looks like the showers are going to the North and East of us towards Torbay.

[AWD]

There are hints from the beebs 10 day outlooks that some warmer weather could finally be on the way for the south and Jersey

With London geting to 26c and St Helier, Jersey hitting 27c

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3042091 - 23rd

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743 - 22nd onwards

Lacks on the sunshine though, if there is rain down there then pressure can't be forecast to be high over the mainland.

Nevertheless, a much improved future awaits now, just how much improved waits to be seen. Need the high to get over us really rather than stay on its northern flank, otherwise there will be more cloud than sun.

[Weather-history]

The rainfall totals for the first half of this summer have been staggering. Since WWII, this summer is already wetter than the summers of 1947, 1949, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1959, 1961, 1962, 1964, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011

The first half of this summer is wetter than the combined total of the 3 driest summers on record for England and Wales. (1800, 1976, 1995)

[A Winter's Tale]

There are hints from the beebs 10 day outlooks that some warmer weather could finally be on the way for the south and Jersey

With London geting to 26c and St Helier, Jersey hitting 27c

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3042091 - 23rd

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743 - 22nd onwards

Lol! Since that 10 day outlook has been introduced there's been some very warm temperatures for some weird places. I'm no expert on the climate of Jersey but I believe it's generally the warmest place in the British Isles, but I don't think it gets baking hot temperatures of 27C too often as it's an island!

[A Winter's Tale]

The rainfall totals for the first half of this summer have been staggering. Since WWII, this summer is already wetter than the summers of 1947, 1949, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1959, 1961, 1962, 1964, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011

The first half of this summer is wetter than the combined total of the 3 driest summers on record for England and Wales. (1800, 1976, 1995)

My goodness, that's quite unbelievable. For the first half of any summer to be wetter than the 3 driest summers (in England and Wales) put together and to be wetter than 40 summers since WWII. Considering how the Greenland High this summer has been so peristent and trying to find any signs of seeing the back of it seems impossible at the moment, I really would think that the ranking of this summer's rain-total compared to others will become more and more impressive.

But even in such a summer, I've found the past few days very pleasant indeed. It's not dream summer weather but having temperatures in the high teens and some blue skies and sunshine and generally bright conditions mixed with a variety of clouds and an ever changing sky is very ideal summer weather. I tend to accept the weather for what it is and I have done so with the weather in past few weeks but leaving the weather of the past few days to what the next five days have instore isn't inspiring but I hope that it won't be quite as miserable to experience as it is to view it on a forecast/the models. It would just be nice to get some more "normal" summer weather with more in the way of sunshine and heat aswell as some rainy days withs showers and some persistent precip. All I say is that, a change will be really nice for once.

[Scorcher]

Considering how the Greenland High this summer has been so peristent and trying to find any signs of seeing the back of it seems impossible at the moment, I really would think that the ranking of this summer's rain-total compared to others will become more and more impressive.

Not so sure about that, plenty of signs of heights lowering over Greenland now. In fact the falling of pressure over Greenland is now coming into the reliable time frame. How long it lasts is anybody's guess but changes are certainly afoot.

[A Winter's Tale]

Not so sure about that, plenty of signs of heights lowering over Greenland now. In fact the falling of pressure over Greenland is now coming into the reliable time frame. How long it lasts is anybody's guess but changes are certainly afoot.

I hope so. Even with an imrpovement I'll still expect more rainfall to add to what has already been an impressive total for the summer. I've noticed that there are signs of the Greenland high starting to fade but I'll remain cautious about it until there's solid evidence of this and of course what happens beyond this is anybody's guess.

[A Winter's Tale]

June was joint 4th for the most days of air frosts (0.3 days) in the UK since records began and it was the frostiest June in Scotland (0.7 days). Remarkable.

[Weather-history]

Since 1900, the first half of summer 2012 is wetter than the summers of 1901, 1902, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1911, 1913, 1914, 1916, 1918, 1919, 1921, 1923, 1925, 1926, 1929, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1937, 1938, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1959, 1961, 1962, 1964, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011

[cyclonic happiness]

Just goes to show how badly the summer if affecting the horticultural industry (garden centres and nurseries etc), we had no customers in the garden centre at all until 11am and then some bedraggled folk came in.

Come 2pm there was a half hour of glorious and hot sunshine and the car park filled up!

It went again a short while after and everyone went home again

All we need is some sunshine and it'll get people out into their gardens and will help our business to keep going, coz, as it is, we are really struggling!

I've been actually put on to a 3 day week atm, as we're not taking enough money for me to be full time?!! and this is albeit at the back end of the season, but still in the season and no-one has ever known for this to happen before.

It'snot just us, most garden centres are shedding staff like leave off trees in autumn, I really hope this weather breaks soon, I'm getting really down about it now

[Bottesford]

I feel for you - it's been a terrible year for gardening and much much worse if you're livelihood depends on it.

For me it's just a hobby but the first year I've really got 'serious' about it - what a year I picked!

Fingers crossed we can get a decent August and September to ripen off what crops have made it. For some crops the remaining growing season is now too short even if the weather does pick up - just have to chalk it up to experience and hope next year is better - well surely it can't be any worse!

[Snowy Easterly]

I feel for you - it's been a terrible year for gardening and much much worse if you're livelihood depends on it.

For me it's just a hobby but the first year I've really got 'serious' about it - what a year I picked!

Fingers crossed we can get a decent August and September to ripen off what crops have made it. For some crops the remaining growing season is now too short even if the weather does pick up - just have to chalk it up to experience and hope next year is better - well surely it can't be any worse!

yep, its just a hobby for me too, and i am getting frustrated not seeing anything grow, my tomatoes plants are quite big but they hardly even have any flowers on them, we need a hot August, September and hope there are no frosts in October if i am to get to any Toms, but as you said there isn't much time left, my beans are slow too but i think they will be ready in a few weeks, it really has been a poor year, weatherwise and crop wise

[Weather-history]

Another remarkable stat is that there have been only 26 wetter springs since 1766 than the first half of this summer.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Weather-history

[summer blizzard]

Latest analogues for May-June

qbo

2007

2005

2003

1998

1994

1989

1979

mei

2009

2002

1997

1994

1991

1982

1977

1972

1969

1965

1958

ao

2009

2007

2003

2001

1998

1992

1991

1987

1981

1977

1972

1971

1963

Best matches were..

2009

1994

1991

1977

1972

Does not bode well for August, only one was above average (1991) and of those following a cool July (1977 and 1972), both had Augusts that were cooler than July at 15.2C and 15.1C.

I officially declare this entire summer over, a cool washout.

[johnholmes]

August 2009 for me was not too bad a month, mean T=17.6C with 17 days over 22C, and rainfall below average so I'd be happy to have a repeat of 2009 August!

July was certainly wet and less warm than August with a mean of 17.0C but again a good many days over 22C, so rather different temperature wise, at least with max values, to this year.

[Scorcher]

I officially declare this entire summer over, a cool washout.

I see you've got your crystal ball out again! And not all of those summers were 'washouts' anyway.

[picog]

Just goes to show how badly the summer if affecting the horticultural industry (garden centres and nurseries etc), we had no customers in the garden centre at all until 11am and then some bedraggled folk came in.

Come 2pm there was a half hour of glorious and hot sunshine and the car park filled up!

It went again a short while after and everyone went home again

All we need is some sunshine and it'll get people out into their gardens and will help our business to keep going, coz, as it is, we are really struggling!

I've been actually put on to a 3 day week atm, as we're not taking enough money for me to be full time?!! and this is albeit at the back end of the season, but still in the season and no-one has ever known for this to happen before.

It'snot just us, most garden centres are shedding staff like leave off trees in autumn, I really hope this weather breaks soon, I'm getting really down about it now

That's very tough for you. I know around here, the farmers will be ploughing in acres of spuds — not sure how the wheat is. Everyone has gone "organic" because they cannot get the sprayers onto the land because of the sodden claggy clay soil. I had to dig up all of my spuds over the weekend because of blight.

[Richard2901]

My statistics for the first half of what can only laughably be described as summer.

1st June - 16th July 2012:

Mean Max: 14.0C (-2.8C)

Sunshine: 121.3hrs (47%)

Rainfall: 143.6mm (173%)

Rain Days: 34 (+12)

It really couldn't be any worse. The temperatures are subarctic and lack of sunshine phenomenal. The first half of summer 1916 was about as cold but not quite as dull. Otherwise I don't think there is any other year that could put up a credible challenge to deny 2012 the unwanted accolade of worst ever first half of summer.

Even more remarkable over a quarter of the sunshine was recorded in the first four days of June giving a total of only 87.6 hours for the 6 weeks to 16th July - a spectacularly awful 38% of average and clearly well outside the bounds of normal variability.

July sunshine continues to be dismal without precedent. 21.3 hours to date and a max daily total of 4.3 hours would be poor for this stage of December

[Weather-history]

I see you've got your crystal ball out again! And not all of those summers were 'washouts' anyway.

The first half of this summer was actually wetter than all of them except 2009 and even then it was only about 10mm behind the 2009 figure.

[Scorcher]

The first half of this summer was actually wetter than all of them except 2009 and even then it was only about 10mm behind the 2009 figure.

Really puts it into perspective. Those summers didn't really have anything in common with 2012 which so far has been one of the worst ever.

[Evening thunder]

I officially declare this entire summer over, a cool washout.

I know it's what you want to happen, but it doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Especially as analogues are only a rough guide at best IMO.

Edited July 17, 2012 by Stormmad26

[jamesay]

The period 1315 to 1317 which ushered in the Little Ice Age probably featured summers like the one we've had so far.... would be interesting if we had proper stats from that period!

[AWD]

Im no heat fan or nothing, but I sure hope the ECM evolution comes off. I will quite happily settle for some warm sunny days followed by a couple of rather hot days if FI verifies and it all goes BOOM.

[rob48]

So the first summer forecast is out from the UK internet firms and it comes from The weather outlook and its a good one!

Quote

Summer 2012: Warmer than average

Overview

A fair to decent summer with the possibility of fine and very warm weather in July is expected. Rainfall amounts could vary significantly locally.

Temperature

A slightly warmer to warmer than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is expected to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.

Precipitation

A slightly drier than average summer is expected generally. Over the three month period precipitation levels are expected to between 75% to 100% of the average for much of the country, but significant variations are expected, with the possibility of heavy downpours pushing precipitation levels above average locally.

June

Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

The first half of the month looks set to bring mixed weather, with all parts of the country seeing showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures over the period will probably be slightly above the seasonal average, especially in the south east where some warm sunny days are possible. Overall though these will probably be offset by cooler and wetter days with the possibility of some heavy rainfall in places, especially, but not exclusively in central and western parts.

Second half

The second half of June is expected to see a spell of dry, fine and settled conditions developing and bringing above average temperatures. At times it could become very warm in southern and central parts with the possibility of thundery conditions. In the west and north west temperatures may be pegged back with a higher risk of unsettled and cooler periods of weather which could push further east at times.

July

Temperature: Above average

Precipitation: Below average

First half

Fine and very warm weather is expected to develop at times during the first half of the month, although early on there may well be mixed weather with some rain and lower temperatures. Fine, settled and very warm or perhaps even hot conditions are possible towards the middle of July.

Second half

The second half of the month should bring further spells of fine weather across much of the UK with temperatures above average. Thunderstorms are increasing possible, but as ever these may be very localised. By the end of the month a transition to cooler conditions may be under way, particularly in the north and west.

August

Temperature: Close to average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

The first half of the month is forecast to bring mixed weather early in the period with showers or longer spells of rain at times, but also some drier and brighter spells of weather when it will be quite warm.

Second half

During the second half of August close to average weather is expected for much of the time, with settled and fine spells especially in the south interspersed with cool and changeable weather.

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast

After other summers that would do me fine, a drier and warmer summer.

Early days, but how's this one doing so far?

[johnholmes]

not very well would be my comment on June and the first half of July, at least for this part of the world