Summer 2012

[Aaron]

Min temperature of 16C forecast for tonight.. that is pretty balmy, and we struggle to get such high temperatures at night during hot spells due to clear skies.

[Weather-history]

October 2011 is very likely to record a higher absolute maximum than this June. When was last time that happened? October recording a higher maximum than the first half of the following year.

[Scorcher]

October 2011 is very likely to record a higher absolute maximum than this June. When was last time that happened? October recording a higher maximum than the first half of the following year.

I know it didn't happen in 1985/1986 but if the temperature reaches 30C in October, this surely has a high chance of happening. I think it says more about the exceptional heatwave last October than anything else.

[rob48]

Doesn't it 'hint' on each and every run, rob?

So I'm told.

I can report experiencing widespread hinting whilst out and about today.

This hinting could build into a crescendo given time and then few of us would be surprised if those summers weren't coming along like buses.

[Bristawl Si]

Hints from GFS that the jet will begin to head north late next week and more so W/C 9th July, summer would arrive if this happened

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2322606

Gavin - do you just hit 'repeat' every few days?!

I think i've been reading the same post from you for the last 4 weeks or so....well, it feels like that anyway. One day it will come true.

[Milhouse]

Looks like Gravesend reached 25c today which is strange as the next warmest station only managed 23c.

At long last we are seeing some decent summer temperatures. The second half of the month will likely come out very average on all aspects. Just a shame the first half was so dire.

[Evening thunder]

Not sure where if this is the right place to post, Decided it wasn't right for the Model thread and there's no whining thread anymore, but on the ECM ensemble mean charts towards/in 'FI' I can't remember the last time when we weren't THE coolest place in our latitude.. It's been way too common in the last few summers too. I know we're maritime etc but how this always seems the case just seems unfair.. even the mid Atlantic often seems warmer on 850hpa temps.

Also just seen the latest MetO 15-30 day forecast.. it mentions likely below average temps, sunshine clearly stated to be below average in July, and 'the chances of very warm conditions prevailing over the period as a whole are considered very low.' There forecasts re usually pretty good, and they're not normally that confident..

Well if that's right I think I'll have to find a way of leaving this country for my sanity.. I'm sorry but after probably one of the dullest June's on record here and no 20C temps since the 1st June, and 6 crap summers in a row?? Also it seems, according to the Met Office, yet again we can't possibly get any thunderstorms here in a far higher CAPE envirenment than the storms near southern Ireland at the moment..

[Weather-history]

October 2011 is very likely to record a higher absolute maximum than this June. When was last time that happened? October recording a higher maximum than the first half of the following year.

If you take the 12 month period from 1st July 2011 to 30th June 2012, then the highest absolute maximum in that period for Manchester was on the 30th September and 1st October.

Edited June 28, 2012 by Weather-history

[Evening thunder]

Well I might have to withdraw some of my comment's from before. Less than 5 hours later we had a nice thunderstorm! Quite frequent lightning for a while. Then yesterday afternoon became sunny and reached 23.7C (about time too). Seems the weather Gods read my complaint. At least there has been something memorable (other than the rain) to end this June now.

It also seems that the latest Met Office 16-30 day outlook is far better now, which I didn't expect. Of course it remains to be seen what materialises.

[Milhouse]

I would welcome some heavy rain and associated thunderstorms if we hadnt had so much rain so for this summer. I just cant get enthusiastic about storms when all its going to do is make the ground more waterlogged than it already is.

If we had some good heatwaves as well then i would welcome a thundery breakdown with open arms.

[ARW WeatherMan]

Is there a reason for the 'Spanish Plume' coming at the end on June last year and this year?

I keep a weather record and last June on the 26th and 27th a spanish plume brought 33.1oC - the hottest day of last year - and then this year on the 27th and 28th a spanish plume brought 28.6oC - the hottest day of the year so far - is there a reason for it firstly only coming for 2 days both times and secondly it coming at the end of June almost to the day?

[rob48]

Attention all posters:

Hinting Alert

20:34 MOD thread.

Please continue with your day to day business.

No need for alarm.

Monitoring ongoing.

[The Northern Ramper]

This is the worst spring and summer that i can remember, what is it now one nice week since the start of April?

[Nick L]

This is the worst spring and summer that i can remember, what is it now one nice week since the start of April?

Spring wasn't bad at all for warm lovers. We had a hot spell in May and a very warm spell in March.

[ohno]

Spring wasnt bad? you gotta be kidding? Wasnt April and most of May sort of wet?...

[Nick L]

Spring wasnt bad? you gotta be kidding? Wasnt April and most of May sort of wet?...

It's not as if it rained constantly. April was pretty bad and the first part of May, but that's not the whole of spring. If you want warmth and sun all spring you're in the wrong country!

The heat in May made my life a misery during exam period and I remember sitting out on the grass in March it was that warm.

Edited July 4, 2012 by Nick L

[ohno]

No it didnt rain consistenty.. April was not the wettest month in living memory..This isnt about getting decent weather all the time.. this is about getting some decent weather in the summer.. Some being the apt word...

Weather forecasters love their stats.. Surely they can see by them. That even for UK. The weather as been shockingly bad in recent summers.

[Scorcher]

Have to say April was one of the worst months I can remember. At least in 2007 there was that record-breaking April which meant there had been a summery spell at one stage of the year and it was the same in 2011 which admittedly was not as bad as 2007. This year we've had the final third of May and barely anything else- okay there was the March spell but it hardly seemed summery with it being so early in the year. It does seem rather unfair!

[Ladyofthestorm]

We had snow in April, and not a single dry day. May wasnt any better except for the last week.I agree Scrocher 2007 had a very decent April. So without moaning, is there any sign of things settling down? Weather Online suggests not and with the exception of next week we can almost write July off as well. Why is it went an area of low pressure rattles in over the atlantic, it stalls over us and France and refuses to do anywhere at all.

[The Northern Ramper]

Spring wasn't bad at all for warm lovers. We had a hot spell in May and a very warm spell in March.

The wettest April in over a century and the wettest June, May was similar to April until the final 10 days and so far July has been similar to June with flooding expected tomorrow.

I am not chasing a heatwave, just a dry settled spell.

[Duncan McAlister]

Never thought looking for some sunshine and heat in FI would become as desperate as winter FI-watching

[Bottesford]

We've had 3 weeks of 'good' weather this year (1 in March and 2 in May) with the majority of the decent weather avoiding weekends and holidays!

I remember March - lovely mild to warm weather all week during work time (before clock move so getting dark not long after getting home) then turned to complete cack the moment we hit Friday evening. I then had a week off work where it snowed & was horribly cold & wet all week forcing us to cancel our trip away.

Then May. 2 week warmth was fantastic but managed to disappear just in time for the bank holiday weekend which was absolutely awful at times. Still at least I got two weekend days of good weather in that spell - and with the longer days some chance to enjoy it in the evenings.

The last time we had 'hot' weather was last October which still beats any max so far this year! Very poor indeed.

[damianslaw]

We had snow in April, and not a single dry day. May wasnt any better except for the last week.I agree Scrocher 2007 had a very decent April. So without moaning, is there any sign of things settling down? Weather Online suggests not and with the exception of next week we can almost write July off as well. Why is it went an area of low pressure rattles in over the atlantic, it stalls over us and France and refuses to do anywhere at all.

The reason why we are seeing low pressure stall across the country is due to the wider synoptic pattern. We have seen very strong stubborn heights to our NW combined with a southerly tracking jet stream and strong heights over eastern europe - and an azores high way to the west, the low pressure systems have nowhere else to go - in effect theysimply become unstuck over the country and appear to go round and round in circles quickly being joined by another low pressure before filling as they move away to the east. Its a synoptical set up that has been remarkably persistant since the start of April only breaking for a 10 day period in late May, and there are no signs yet of it breaking anytime soon. July and especially August traditionally see the return of the atlantic on a westerly trajectory, it is much more diffcult to sustain a dry settled spell in July and August especially in the north compared to anytime between Feb and June - not the words many want to here. We will break out of this cycle eventually, perhaps for a lengthy period perhaps only for a few days or so, but lets hope we don't have to wait until the latter part of the summer, another month of this and I think many will be reaching for that air flight ticket!

[Snowyowl9]

It seems to me every friday for the past 5 or 6 weeks has been the wettest or coolest day of the week.

I`d rather summer of 2007 to this year yet at least there was drier warmer spells in june,and thunderstorms this summer none of the above yet.

May is not summer as that one pretty hot week at the end,noe why couldn`t that come now and not may,typical.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's easy to forget that March 2012 was as exceptionally sunny, dry and warm as April was exceptionally dull and wet, and not far short of how exceptional the Aprils of 2007 and 2011 were. True, sunshine was variable rather than plentiful during the anticyclonic weather of early to mid March, and it was the phenomenal warm sunny last third which made the statistics exceptional, but a similar thing could be said for April, which only became really dull and wet after midmonth. Cool cloudy weather for much of May was wiped out by that warm sunny end, so overall a fairly average spring statistically with the extremes cancelling each other out.

No arguments from me regarding the summer though- June did prove to be pretty ridiculous for abundance of rain and lack of sunshine and made the past three summers look positively "summery" by comparison, though perhaps not 2007 or 2008.

Some say that what we need is for highest pressure to transfer towards the Azores and for the jet to move towards its normal position, but July 1988 was a very extreme case of how that doesn't always work out for summery type weather- a strong Azores High and a relentless series of depressions tracking over northern Scotland preventing it from ridging beyond the south coast. For a strong anticyclonic influence the jet preferably needs to be weak and/or to the north of its usual position, although one could see a July 1988 type pattern as a possible stepping stone towards that as any let-up in the depressions tends to allow the Azores High to throw up ridges north-eastwards.