Summer 2012

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office have updated there probability maps for June, covers the period of July to September

850 hpa temperature

Precipitation

Pressure

The IOD model has also updated for the 3 months of June to August

Precipitation is shown to be below normal

Surface air temperature Anomaly is above normal

Edited June 15, 2012 by Gavin D

[reef]

Werent these same charts showing a high probability of a warmer, drier spring than average back in February?

If you ask me they need to be taken with a huge truckload of salt.

[Slowpoke]

Agreed. I do like looking at them though as they always give me a little glimmer of hope.

Generally though, you can expect the opposite of what they show lol

[Luke McDonnell]

Hi,

Just wondering do you think the QBO could be a factor responsible for our cool and wet June so far? I read a post on this forum claiming the the QBO was very negative a few weeks ago I also read that during most of the very warm months (e.g. July 2006/1995) the QBO was either positive or neutral. So I am just asking does anyone think that with the current state of the QBO we should not be surprised with the current pattern for this June so far - is it true that a very negative QBO would encourage more high latitude blocking which would make warm and settled spells few and far between?

Also does anyone have an update on the current state of the QBO is it not as negative as it has been over the last few weeks - is it expected to go neutral soon and could that mean better prospects for the rest of the summer?

Luke

[sebastiaan1973]

In te De Bilt, Netherlands the first part of june (1-15th) ranks 11th since 1900. So there are only 10 june's colder than this years.

[Froze were the Days]

Are temps due to get into the 80's next week? I've had a quick peek at the UKMO fax and I can't see it, yes more settled warmer conditions but the 80's? According to Jonothan 'I like to quote everything to the Express and I've even started up a new forecast company' Powell it is!

[Summer Sun]

Are temps due to get into the 80's next week? I've had a quick peek at the UKMO fax and I can't see it, yes more settled warmer conditions but the 80's? According to Jonothan 'I like to quote everything to the Express and I've even started up a new forecast company' Powell it is!

80's seems a bit OTT to me high 60s to mid 70's seems more realistic for parts of the south

[summer blizzard]

Hi,

Just wondering do you think the QBO could be a factor responsible for our cool and wet June so far? I read a post on this forum claiming the the QBO was very negative a few weeks ago I also read that during most of the very warm months (e.g. July 2006/1995) the QBO was either positive or neutral. So I am just asking does anyone think that with the current state of the QBO we should not be surprised with the current pattern for this June so far - is it true that a very negative QBO would encourage more high latitude blocking which would make warm and settled spells few and far between?

Also does anyone have an update on the current state of the QBO is it not as negative as it has been over the last few weeks - is it expected to go neutral soon and could that mean better prospects for the rest of the summer?

Luke

Yup, it is deeply negative and i believe it to be the skurge of our summer.

[95 Degrees]

If I'm honest, this June from a local point of view hasn't been that bad, yes it's been cloudy often and often too cold to enjoy the weather, but I can think of worse June's here, such as 2007 and mid June 2011, and even parts of June 1998, bored of the cool weather but at least there has been some sunshine (in the south) and not just overcast/frontal rain day after day.

If I'm honest, this June from a local point of view hasn't been that bad, yes it's been cloudy often and often too cold to enjoy the weather, but I can think of worse June's here, such as 2007 and mid June 2011, and even parts of June 1998, bored of the cool weather but at least there has been some sunshine (in the south) and not just overcast/drizzle day after day.

[Weather-history]

We were fortunate (unfortunate if you are inclined that way) of having that spell during late May, take that out and very wet and cool sums it up since start of April.

[Slowpoke]

Looking forward to tomorrow, 19-20C should be reached quite widely, locally up to 22-23C! It's no heatwave - infact, it's only a little above average, but with relatively high humidity, light winds and lots of sunshine, it should feel very summery. Only one day of it though, I wish the Atlantic would give us a break...

[Richard2901]

Sunshine totals I've recorded:

1st - 19th Dec 2011: 61.3hrs

1st - 19th Jan 2012: 71.3hrs

1st - 19th Feb 2012: 63.8hrs

1st - 19th June 2012: 57.7hrs

I only recorded 12 days in the entire winter with less than half-an hour of sunshine. So far there's been 9 in this sorry excuse of a summer and with the dismal outlook the winter total could easily be surpassed by the end of the weekend.

It really is summer 2007 all over again. Only difference is it's colder. Mean max still running at 1C below the record low for June with nothing but very low maxima in the outlook (e.g. 11C forecast for Thursday).

[Evening thunder]

Looks like my area will miss out on that again, forecast now changed to clouding over so probably not even reaching average! Today's max still just below although it was a sunny day, shame I was stuck indoors doing 2 A level exams but thankfully they're over now! This month looks pretty shocking for max temps to be honest! I thought last summer was bad..

A possible good thing though is the potential for some very heavy downpours and possible thunderstorms (really?! probably not) tomorrow night.

[Evening thunder]

Sunshine totals I've recorded:

1st - 19th Dec 2011: 61.3hrs

1st - 19th Jan 2012: 71.3hrs

1st - 19th Feb 2012: 63.8hrs

1st - 19th June 2012: 57.7hrs

I only recorded 12 days in the entire winter with less than half-an hour of sunshine. So far there's been 9 in this sorry excuse of a summer and with the dismal outlook the winter total could easily be surpassed by the end of the weekend.

It really is summer 2007 all over again. Only difference is it's colder. Mean max still running at 1C below the record low for June with nothing but very low maxima in the outlook (e.g. 11C forecast for Thursday).

Blimey that's pretty bad. I think a few parts of southern England had half those sunshine totals until recently which is even worse! Your max temps seem horrible though, I hope you can get some offshore winds up there soon.

[summer blizzard]

With the PDO data now updated another three analogues enter the fray..

Strongest analogues

2005 - aab

2003 - aaa

2002 - bba

1998 - bbb

1994 - aab

1987 - bbb

1979 - bbb

1973 - aba

1963 - abb

Two thirds of July below average.

Two thirds of August below average.

Where June was below average, all July and 75% August were also below average.

Does not bode well.

[Slowpoke]

Still 19.4C here in Blackpool with a nice ESE breeze.

[AderynCoch]

Wow, a day which actually felt June-like! Yes, it even exceeded 20C.

Of course having a few non-terrible days in a row inevitably means we're about to get "punished" by yet more revolting anti-summer, probably another several weeks' worth.

[Slowpoke]

18z looks good for next week. Light winds, sunshine and warm temperatures from Monday until Thursday. Keep your fingers crossed guys! Possibly a few scattered afternoon showers bubbling up, maybe even developing into thunderstorms. Tuesday onwards looks very summery! Low-mid twenties for England and maybe parts of Wales. Widespread high teens and maybe even locally into the low twenties for Scotland and Ireland. Certainly not a heatwave but it will feel glorious after weeks and weeks of rain. Of course, this is still FI since we need to get this ugly weekend low out of the way. I hope it happens though, we seriously deserve it.

[rob48]

How on earth can anyone "deserve" a certain type of weather, weird concept IMO.

[Summer Sun]

18z looks good for next week. Light winds, sunshine and warm temperatures from Monday until Thursday. Keep your fingers crossed guys! Possibly a few scattered afternoon showers bubbling up, maybe even developing into thunderstorms. Tuesday onwards looks very summery! Low-mid twenties for England and maybe parts of Wales. Widespread high teens and maybe even locally into the low twenties for Scotland and Ireland. Certainly not a heatwave but it will feel glorious after weeks and weeks of rain. Of course, this is still FI since we need to get this ugly weekend low out of the way. I hope it happens though, we seriously deserve it.

I agree we deserve some wamer weather now, this isn't summer weather its more like Autumn

[Evening thunder]

18z looks good for next week. Light winds, sunshine and warm temperatures from Monday until Thursday. Keep your fingers crossed guys! Possibly a few scattered afternoon showers bubbling up, maybe even developing into thunderstorms. Tuesday onwards looks very summery! Low-mid twenties for England and maybe parts of Wales. Widespread high teens and maybe even locally into the low twenties for Scotland and Ireland. Certainly not a heatwave but it will feel glorious after weeks and weeks of rain. Of course, this is still FI since we need to get this ugly weekend low out of the way. I hope it happens though, we seriously deserve it.

Indeed it does look a bit better for some more seasonable/average temperatures on the models, with 850hpa temps often above 5-10C in the southern half of the UK at least, rather than 0-5C like recently, So it should feel more summery away from any rainfall.

As an update to my previous slightly grumpy post, we did have a sunny spell yesterday which did mean we did manage to reach an average max for one day..

[Kernewegyon]

I am only 37 but in Cornwall we have not experienced a proper "Summer" since 2006 so I have now stopped calling it summer. To me it is now just the season in the middle of the year! June 2012 is the wettest, dullest, windiest and coldest I think I have ever known and I feel sure will break quite a few unwanted records. The temperatures we experienced back in March were almost double what we are experiencing now!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

27.7c which we got last month was probably the warmest temp since 2006 here

[Alex]

This must be one of the worst starts to summer ever and as discussed above the PDO has gone deeply negative, QBO is very low and things tbh don't look very rosy. Maybe a slightly improved July and better August. I'm so fed up of yet another rubbish summer!

[Jon Somerset]

For me today is the first day of summer, so rather early days yet.