Summer 2012

[Evening thunder]

Yesterday with a barely average max of 18.1C was actually the 2nd warmest day since the 6th June, which reached a mighty 18.2C.. At least it did feel pleasant in the garden late in the afternoon with with the sun on my back during the sunny intervals.

[phil nw.]

I thought i would repost this in here as it would be relevant to current views on the poor start to Summer 2012.

I have seen a lot of comments recently suggesting that our Summers seem to be worse now than a few years back and i thought as this appeared to be rather subjective i would have a look for some data for recent Summers.

I didn`t want to spend too much time on this as whatever i found wouldn`t alter the weather.

For quickness i done some poking around on the NOAA site and looked at the Northern Hemisphere 500hPa anomolies for the Summer months only( June-August) and the zonal wind anomoilies for the same season going back to 1994.

I have split the results into 3 batches of 6 seasons and you can see for yourselves the differences in these amnomalities as we go through the period 1994 to last year.

First the 3 500hPa charts

and now the 3 Zonal winds anomalities.for the same 3 periods.

We can see from those charts how, over the last 18 years,the areas of yellow( higher pressure) has disappeared from NW Europe and in the last few Summers the UK has been dominated by lower -blue-anomolies.

Notice too how we have greater heights over the Arctic now and when you look at the earlier chart you can see the big difference with the blues(low pressure) over the Arctic before the Millenium.

Likewise see how the mean Zonal wind(westerly winds) anomalies have moved south to be over our latitude.

This is only a limited analyisis over a relatively short period and doesn`t mean we are in for many years of poor Summers.

It is,however, interesting. from the pov of underlining what`s caused the relatively recent run of poor Summers and that there is evidence out there to show that the jet stream has been running on a more southerly track in recent Summers.

[Bristawl Si]

I think the title of this thread should be altered to "Delayed Summer 2012 (will be changed back to Summer 2012 at some point......maybe!)"

[Milhouse]

From now on until late August onwards the weather will feel summery, unsettled spells giving rather humid and quite warm conditions, i think its time people realise that even the peak periods of summer and winter in most of england and wales temps won't deviate that often much from average, so expect max temps of around 18C to 24C in July on most days and max temps around 4C to 9C in an average January on most days, they are warm enough and cold enough respectively for most of the population to go about their daily lives.

When was the last truly cold July, even cold July's arent exactly cold anyway.

No, thats true. A very cold July would be something like 14c. If we got a 14c CET for May we would all be saying how warm it had been.

But, the average CET for July is roughly 16.5c and several months in the not too distant past have reached 17.5c. As a person who likes my months as warm as possible i would dislike a 15c or even a 16c July as i would know we are capable of achieving much better.

[AderynCoch]

Not to mention the fact that a 14C May would almost certainly have a lot of hot and sunny weather, whereas a 14C July would struggle to give us any warmth at all.

[Summer Sun]

Summer should arrive this week for a time

This heat and humidity only lasting a while with a good chance of heavy downpours and thunderstorms late Thursday, even flash flooding again! A much fresher end to the week and weekend with showers for the north and west.

http://uk.weather.com/partners-Wimbledonoutlook/62212forecast

[rob48]

Summer should arrive this week for a time

According to you that'll be the third one this year!

[Summer Sun]

The beeb are showing temps peaking at 23c for Thursday with rain and thunder around, it becomes much more unsettled for Friday with rain and stronger winds taking over once more for all parts

Edited June 24, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Snowy Easterly]

23c is that it, GFS shows 26c in london, still nothing special but at least it will feel nice

[Bottesford]

Sounds lovely weather to spend in Stansted airport then an air conditioned train coming home just in time for it to turn cool again! Argggg.

Still at least Slovenia where I shall be will be nice & warm all week although suspect I won't see a lot of it from an air conditioned business centre!

[Summer Sun]

23c is that it, GFS shows 26c in london, still nothing special but at least it will feel nice

Yep the beeb are only going for 23c with lots of cloud around so either the beeb are underplaying things or GFS is over doing it

[Milhouse]

23c is that it, GFS shows 26c in london, still nothing special but at least it will feel nice

No one could predict the 33c that we got this time last year so i think we could be in for a suprise. Temperatures will easily make it into the mid 20s. I wouldnt rule out 30c in the SE on Thursday.

[Snowy Easterly]

no chance of 30c here though, even though im not that far away from london probably 25c

Edited June 24, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Milhouse]

No one could predict the 33c that we got this time last year so i think we could be in for a suprise. Temperatures will easily make it into the mid 20s. I wouldnt rule out 30c in the SE on Thursday.

Having seen the latest countryfile forecast i am going to revise my prediction down somewhat. Probably more like 25/26c the max around the middle of the week.

[Scorcher]

GFS is still showing 25C though and as we know you can usually add at least 2 or 3C to that if there isn't too much cloud cover, I really think a lot of places are going to see 25C on Thursday.

[Mapantz]

The BBC/Met O need to keep their traps shut when doing forecasts on Friday evenings about the following weeks weather.

JH was bigging up on how it would be good for a few days, and locally it was going to be warm, with plenty of sunshine here. Now it's going to be mostly cloudy, and wet on Tuesday.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Mapantz

[ZONE 51]

This will be upgraded, the temperatures are more likely then not to be upgraded through the week, the warmer the SE gets the warmer it is further north.

[Weather-history]

More rain has fallen in the first 23 days of this June than fell in the whole of the summers 1976 and 1995 combined for England and Wales.

[Snowy Easterly]

WOW, i know this is extremely unlikely as its deep FI, but it would be a very nice birthday for me

[Summer Sun]

Hints from GFS that the jet will begin to head north late next week and more so W/C 9th July, summer would arrive if this happened

[rob48]

Hints from GFS that the jet will begin to head north late next week and more so W/C 9th July, summer would arrive if this happened

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2322606

That'll be the fourth one so far.

[Evening thunder]

Met Office now downgraded temps for today, tomorrow, Thursday to 18C,18C, 19C. Has It ever happened here that we have gone over a month in summer without reaching 20C? because it's fast becoming that way!! and I thought last summer was poor for it's nearly 50 day spell without exceeding 23.2C!

I don't want to live in a country where that can happen in summer.. especially when winters are usually crap and we're the mildest at our latitude just like we're virtually always the coolest in summer these days.. (sorry need a moan about this).

Edited June 26, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Village]

Summer 2012 ? are you sure?

What Summer?

[Methuselah]

That'll be the fourth one so far.

Doesn't it 'hint' on each and every run, rob?

[Mapantz]

Disastrous forecasting by BBC national and local forecasts again.

Today was supposed to be grey, damp and drizzly. Instead, we went from warm sunshine and temps around 20c to a torrential downpour.