Summer 2012

[Adzyy]

I don't see why people are panicking that Summer is already over or is destined to fail? A few weeks ago, if someone suggested last week's weather, they would have been shot down for it. We all know by now how much the models and forecasts change. Let's just ride the roller coaster.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Adzyy

[Methuselah]

I don't see why people are panicking that Summer is already over or is destined to fail? A few weeks ago, if someone suggested last week's weather, they would have been shot down for it. We all know by now how much the models and forecasts change. Let's just ride the roller coaster.

Especially when we take into consideration the startling fact that summer hasn't even started yet...

[Methuselah]

Like I said in another thread the dips in the NAO and AO are not a permanent thing they are only temporary. Think at the moment the models are very much playing it safe at the moment and the charts are either looking over progressive or under progressive. Think the MJO will alter fortunes probably.

Indeed, ledders. They are merely statistical methods for trying to predict how certain parameters might evolve through time; and are no more 'set in stone' than HP areas, Atlantic lows or sunspot number...

[Weather-history]

The Manchester summer index will be kicking off soon. The last 5 summers have all been sub 200.

[Summer Sun]

So the first summer forecast is out from the UK internet firms and it comes from The weather outlook and its a good one!

Summer 2012: Warmer than average

Overview

A fair to decent summer with the possibility of fine and very warm weather in July is expected. Rainfall amounts could vary significantly locally.

Temperature

A slightly warmer to warmer than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is expected to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.

Precipitation

A slightly drier than average summer is expected generally. Over the three month period precipitation levels are expected to between 75% to 100% of the average for much of the country, but significant variations are expected, with the possibility of heavy downpours pushing precipitation levels above average locally.

June

Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

The first half of the month looks set to bring mixed weather, with all parts of the country seeing showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures over the period will probably be slightly above the seasonal average, especially in the south east where some warm sunny days are possible. Overall though these will probably be offset by cooler and wetter days with the possibility of some heavy rainfall in places, especially, but not exclusively in central and western parts.

Second half

The second half of June is expected to see a spell of dry, fine and settled conditions developing and bringing above average temperatures. At times it could become very warm in southern and central parts with the possibility of thundery conditions. In the west and north west temperatures may be pegged back with a higher risk of unsettled and cooler periods of weather which could push further east at times.

July

Temperature: Above average

Precipitation: Below average

First half

Fine and very warm weather is expected to develop at times during the first half of the month, although early on there may well be mixed weather with some rain and lower temperatures. Fine, settled and very warm or perhaps even hot conditions are possible towards the middle of July.

Second half

The second half of the month should bring further spells of fine weather across much of the UK with temperatures above average. Thunderstorms are increasing possible, but as ever these may be very localised. By the end of the month a transition to cooler conditions may be under way, particularly in the north and west.

August

Temperature: Close to average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

The first half of the month is forecast to bring mixed weather early in the period with showers or longer spells of rain at times, but also some drier and brighter spells of weather when it will be quite warm.

Second half

During the second half of August close to average weather is expected for much of the time, with settled and fine spells especially in the south interspersed with cool and changeable weather.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

After other summers that would do me fine, a drier and warmer summer.

[GarethK]

Thats a pretty decent and positive outlook to what could happen and I for one would love to see it, working outside all year round has it good and bad times but the last thing I need is another prolonged unsettled and wet spell as it really doesnt help my business.

[Jack Wales]

So the first summer forecast is out from the UK internet firms and it comes from The weather outlook and its a good one!

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast

After other summers that would do me fine, a drier and warmer summer.

Yes, that's an interesting forecast, especially as TWO are one of the better ones out there. Does anyone know when the NW summer forecast will be avaialble?

[Robbie Garrett]

My forecast if anyone's interested. Took a lot of knowledge and research. One thing for sure is, that Summer can go either way but the latest is that it could be a nice one, as long as we keep northern blocking at bay. (Which is impossible for us personally )

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/316/entry-4416-summer-2012-long-range-forecast-v11/

[Summer Sun]

Yes, that's an interesting forecast, especially as TWO are one of the better ones out there. Does anyone know when the NW summer forecast will be avaialble?

Netweather's will follow today at some point.

[Village]

My view is that the summer is over just as it has begun. You couldnt have planned the rain and cold to hit at the worst time in the one location which matters most this Sunday. Shocking.

[Snowmadsam]

Interesting forecasts guys, I too am looking forward to the Netweather forecasts

[Glacier Point]

..forecast out soon..

Nice update today from CFS v2, sniffing exactly what I'm looking at.

[samadamsuk]

Do you have a link for that model GP please -

Cheers, Sam

Edited June 1, 2012 by samadamsuk

[Summer Sun]

Do you have a link for that model GP please -

Cheers, Sam

CFS V2 is available here, not sure which one GP looks at - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

[Summer Sun]

Summer Forecast 2012 - Issued 1st June 2012

"A little bit of this, a little bit of that, but just your plain old summer, with some better weather prospects in July and August"

This year we're expecting a fairly traditional British summer, with periods of less settled weather interspersed with drier, warmer spells. Overall we forecast that temperatures will be close to, or a little above average with rainfall forecast to be below average.

Month to month, unsettled conditions are expected to be prevalent through the first few weeks of June, although with warmer, more humid conditions eventually replacing the cooler start to the month. July and August are expected to see the driest, warmest weather although with phases of cooler, wetter weather.

The full, in depth and technical forecast, written by our long range forecaster Stewart Rampling is below.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast-2012;sess=

[Milhouse]

Its a bit boring hearing 'average' being mentioned yet again but it would take a very brave person to lean towards a very cool or very warm Summer. Good to hear that an improving trend may occur for July and August. Afterall, a good June has historically quite often been followed by a deterioration for the rest of the summer (1950, 1960,1970, 1992) so a heatwave now doesnt always bode well for July and August. There have been many summers that improved nicely in time for July after a poor start (1983, 1990, 1991, 1995, 2001).

Edited June 1, 2012 by Milhouse

[Scorcher]

Its a bit boring hearing 'average' being mentioned yet again but it would take a very brave person to lean towards a very cool or very warm Summer. Good to hear that an improving trend may occur for July and August. Afterall, a good June has historically quite often been followed by a deterioration for the rest of the summer (1950, 1960,1970, 1992) so a heatwave now doesnt always bode well for July and August. There have been many summers that improved nicely in time for July after a poor start (1983, 1990, 1991, 1995, 2001).

You could add 2009 and 2010 to your list of warm Junes that were followed by a disappointing July and August!

[Aaron]

A max temperature of 13.5C today.. which occurred at 3am in the morning.. the temperature during the day did not exceed 13C - not once. Now, where is the person who said such maximum temperatures are not possible unless accompanied by very heavy rain and fog, at the end of May, let alone in June?

[Scorcher]

13C isn't that cold though Aaron. It got to 12C during the day at Leeds-Bradford Airport and I don't think anyone said that wasn't possible. I've heard you say before that the weather is better on the east side of the Pennines. Today Manchester Airport recorded 19C!

[Aaron]

The weather usually is better on this side of the Pennines, but that isn't always going to be the case, just like the South of England isn't always going to be the warmest or sunniest place in the country even though it usually is

[Scorcher]

The weather usually is better on this side of the Pennines, but that isn't always going to be the case, just like the South of England isn't always going to be the warmest or sunniest place in the country even though it usually is

You make these sweeping statements without anything to back them up- the only thing I can find statistically is that it's drier on your side of the Pennines. If you're talking temperature, it's also cooler over the year in Leeds than in Manchester in both summer and winter. I have family in Leeds and we'd often drive over the Pennines when I was a kid and it would often be foggy in Leeds, whereas the western side of the Pennines would be clear. Fog is comparatively rare in Manchester.

Edited June 1, 2012 by Scorcher

[J10]

Also South Wales can be the sunniest part of the Country, as it was in 2010.

A very muggy 20c today largely under thick cloud cover, although it has brightened up late this evening.

[The PIT]

Just compared Manchester to Sheffield. Temperature wise near enough the same Sheffield is slightly wetter and less sunny but is at a higher elevation.

Anyway going back to the summer forecast and the CFS raw has changed it's tune from yesterday where it showed a mainly unsettled June.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've lived in both Cleadon (Tyne and Wear) and Lancaster (NW Lancs) and have generally found that the weather is duller and wetter in Lancaster during autumn and winter, but sunnier with similar rainfall during spring and early summer. Mid to late summer is wetter in Lancaster but with similar amounts of sunshine. Comparisons between Manchester and Leeds will probably yield a similar outcome.

It's always going to be subjective as to which climate is "better" anyway.

[Robbie Garrett]

Blimey what's the deepest you can get from a Summer Depression!!