Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking over the GFS outputs, the high pressure would bring plenty of warm sunshine for most of us during next week but also some complications- a weakened high allowing an increasing number of showers to develop during Monday-Wednesday and then an Atlantic system bringing a cloudier muggy day on Thursday, before warm sunshine returns on Friday. It reminds me of how June 2006 started off- something for most of us I'd imagine. The ECMWF 12Z operational run would probably give a similar sequence of events. The latter stages of the ECM run again suggest quite a stubborn Euro high/Atlantic trough pattern which could give some warm/hot sunshine and the possibility of thundery outbreaks, while GFS suggests a drier, quieter and less hot scenario but with less likelihood of cooler cloudier weather heading into eastern areas than the 12Z showed.

At present it is looking likely that high pressure will be close by for the foreseeable future but it is questionable where it will end up. The odds seem weighted in favour of a favourable positioning for sunshine and warmth (perhaps heat) though.

[mushymanrob]

Looking over the GFS outputs, the high pressure would bring plenty of warm sunshine for most of us during next week but also some complications- a weakened high allowing an increasing number of showers to develop during Monday-Wednesday and then an Atlantic system bringing a cloudier muggy day on Thursday, before warm sunshine returns on Friday. It reminds me of how June 2006 started off- something for most of us I'd imagine. The ECMWF 12Z operational run would probably give a similar sequence of events. The latter stages of the ECM run again suggest quite a stubborn Euro high/Atlantic trough pattern which could give some warm/hot sunshine and the possibility of thundery outbreaks, while GFS suggests a drier, quieter and less hot scenario but with less likelihood of cooler cloudier weather heading into eastern areas than the 12Z showed.

At present it is looking likely that high pressure will be close by for the foreseeable future but it is questionable where it will end up. The odds seem weighted in favour of a favourable positioning for sunshine and warmth (perhaps heat) though.

Indeed, What a dilema! High pressure close by to the north, or high pressure close by to our east! im loving it! lol

[Alex]

Worrying run from the ECM 00z for heat lovers, looks like it is coming into line with the GFS which means a ridge to the north and the hot uppers pouring out into the Atlantic, what a waste! At least it would still be mostly settled.

[Essan]

Worrying run from the ECM 00z for heat lovers, looks like it is coming into line with the GFS which means a ridge to the north and the hot uppers pouring out into the Atlantic, what a waste! At least it would still be mostly settled.

Aye, just going to be warm and sunny instead of hot and sunny. Disaster!!! :o

[Summer Sun]

Lovely GFS with lots of high pressure around keeping it settled, we may just get a settled bank holiday weekend if we are lucky the models are promising. Although not hot they would bring temps into the mid 20's could be the same as this week

[johnholmes]

below is the short note I make every day regarding the 3 anomaly charts

Noaa=eve 24/05

Similar idea to last issue=trough about 30 west and 500 ridge Iceland to uk, especially north

Ec-gfs=am 25/05

This morning they are both back to the uk ridge idea!

Ec has the actual centre a touch further nne to gfs-

They both have trough about 40 west so a bit further west than noaa last evening

Both have high contour values over uk

On this output one would go with similar weather to what we have now

[Summer Sun]

Lovely GFS again high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Deluxe]

Lovely GFS again high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Good heavens when the high pressure re-establishes itself it just doesn't move for the entire run!

Edited May 25, 2012 by Hartle

[A Winter's Tale]

Lovely GFS again high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Still quite far away and things will change during this time but it's encouraging to see high pressure being so dominate in that run. It would be a horrible to see this warm spell replaced by something like what we had earlier this month or last summer, but a restbite to allow water for plants and to keep things varied would be welcome before we see continued summer weather. I think in general, it'll be interesting to see how UKMO, ECM and GFS handle with the duration of this warm spell aswell as other features that could end or even extend this warmth and sunshine.

[Frank Trough]

is the latest METO update not a little bit out of kilter with the ECM and GFS outputs? How is it going to be generally unsettled during the second half of next week? i'm a bit confused. It certainly wouldn't be cloudy and wet in the northwest if the ECM and GFS are correct, would it?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 May 2012 to Friday 8 Jun 2012:

Rather unsettled at first with showers or longer outbreaks of rain in most parts, perhaps heavy at times. The north and west of the United Kingdom are most likely to see more persistent rain. There is an increasing chance of drier, brighter weather towards the first weekend of June for many parts, however the northwest is likely to remain rather cloudy throughout with spells of rain.

[Alex]

is the latest METO update not a little bit out of kilter with the ECM and GFS outputs? How is it going to be generally unsettled during the second half of next week? i'm a bit confused. It certainly wouldn't be cloudy and wet in the northwest if the ECM and GFS are correct, would it?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 May 2012 to Friday 8 Jun 2012:

Rather unsettled at first with showers or longer outbreaks of rain in most parts, perhaps heavy at times. The north and west of the United Kingdom are most likely to see more persistent rain. There is an increasing chance of drier, brighter weather towards the first weekend of June for many parts, however the northwest is likely to remain rather cloudy throughout with spells of rain.

The ridge will be rather slacker and weaker next week which may allow some showers to develop but I do think they are overplaying the unsettled card a bit with all 3 outputs rather settled ( MET, GFS and ECM). Maybe the 6-15 day team are on holiday today and didn't see the outputs lol. But in all seriousness I'm surprised by the output and also surprised with the 16-30 day output as the ECM 32 dayer was more anticyclonic this morning and there has been little change from yesterday . Maybe they know something we don't?

On another note angular momentum is starting to rise this could over time promote a Spanish plume in conjunction with a phase 8 MJO.

Edited May 25, 2012 by Alex

[Alex]

My 6-15 day would have read:

Starting warm with sunny spells, however from Wednesday to Friday showers could develop particularly in southwestern areas. During the weekend it will become mostly settled with bright or sunny spells, eastern coasts may be cloudier and cooler and the far northwest may be more prone to more cloud with some outbreaks of rain at times. It will be warm for many away from windward coasts and there is a chance of very warm conditions developing right across the UK. Into next week and it should stay similar with sunny spells and a chance of showers for some and it will be either warm or very warm.

Updated by Alex

[Methuselah]

is the latest METO update not a little bit out of kilter with the ECM and GFS outputs? How is it going to be generally unsettled during the second half of next week? i'm a bit confused. It certainly wouldn't be cloudy and wet in the northwest if the ECM and GFS are correct, would it?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 May 2012 to Friday 8 Jun 2012:

Rather unsettled at first with showers or longer outbreaks of rain in most parts, perhaps heavy at times. The north and west of the United Kingdom are most likely to see more persistent rain. There is an increasing chance of drier, brighter weather towards the first weekend of June for many parts, however the northwest is likely to remain rather cloudy throughout with spells of rain.

Isn't that unsettledness referring to the temporary thundery breakdown expected around next Tuesday - Thursday?

[Robbie Garrett]

CFS indicating a fairly cooler/wetter June IMHO, but let's see how it goes shall we...but a more settled first half with a scorching July/August. This is probably due to the fact of the positioning of the high pressure, GFS is also fairly consistent in modelling this recently.

Nothing exceptional again till first week of July. For the CET zone, your looking at a mean of 13*C first 7 days, the second week it says pretty much the same with the warmest areas being the south west at 15*C. 14*C for the 3rd week and 16*C for the last week, pretty much what the picture paints above.

Right now it's painting the following picture, and has painted May so far very well.

1. Cooler/slightly wet June, with a warm start and a warm finish. With the positioning of the high very crucial in determining if we get northerly regime of the other side being fairly warm/hot sunshine. This is being modeled in the more high resolution short-medium term models.
   
2. Scorching July, with weekday maxes in the mid 30's. With the odd chance of a Spanish plume.
   
3. Early August it's showing temperatures in the mid 30's also.
   
4. Mid August seems to be a little wetter, so cannot really say where this will go.
   

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z keeps the high pressure with us for next week, likely to be the same as this week though with a few upgrades there is the chance of some warm air getting pulled up from spain, but the most likey scenario is more of the same

Some cloud and thunderstorms are likey in the south west for Saturday evening / night with the cloud hanging on during sunday pushing into Wales but else where in the east its more of the same with lots of warm sunshine

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

So in summary apart from a thundery breakdown in the south west tomorrow high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future

[Snowy Easterly]

Lets hope the GEM and NOGAPS are wrong because they look poor if we are to see warm weather next week.

[Summer Sun]

Lets hope the GEM and NOGAPS are wrong because they look poor if we are to see warm weather next week.

GEM and NOGAPS are both on the 00z run here judge them on the 12z

[Snowy Easterly]

no, its the 12z check meteociel

anyway lets hope they are wrong but we can't dismiss them just because we don't like what they show, though GEM is not bad its just cooler for the east

Edited May 25, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Summer Sun]

no, its the 12z check meteociel

anyway lets hope they are wrong but we can't dismiss them just because we don't like what they show, though GEM is not bad its just cooler for the east

Ah thanks, I was looking at Wetterzentral, I very rearely check them 2 so I don't know what it was sowing for this week

Anyway UKMO 12z isn't bad tonight

[Cloud 10]

The GEM,along with the nogaps have the atlantic trough to far west,which in turn causes the

ridge of high pressure to be west of the Uk allowing in cooler air from the N/NE.

The 6-15 day met-office forecast seems very bullish about a return to unsettled conditions,but

still plenty of very pleasant weather to come over the next few days.

[The PIT]

Settled although at the present time not looking as hot as has been with temps dropping back a bit. All eyes on the ECM too see whether this backs the settled run or shows a break down at some point.

[Mapantz]

GFS 12z keeps the high pressure with us for next week, likely to be the same as this week though with a few upgrades there is the chance of some warm air getting pulled up from spain, but the most likey scenario is more of the same

Some cloud and thunderstorms are likey in the south west for Saturday evening / night with the cloud hanging on during sunday pushing into Wales but else where in the east its more of the same with lots of warm sunshine

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

So in summary apart from a thundery breakdown in the south west tomorrow high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future

Do you just look for the word 'High' on the 500hPa charts and instantly think that we're in for more of the same?

Because my interpretation of the latest GFS run shows lowering thicknesses next week, with showers popping up in the south, and becoming more widespread by mid-week.

Edited May 25, 2012 by Mapantz

[phil nw.]

Settled although at the present time not looking as hot as has been with temps dropping back a bit. All eyes on the ECM too see whether this backs the settled run or shows a break down at some point.

Yes so far so good for an extension of this fine weather.

Midweek is now looking settled on the GFS Op run too whereas yesterday`s 12z showed low pressure extending into the UK from the Atlantic trough.

Even the less warm GEM would be essentially dry and fine except perhaps along the East coast where a cooler North Easterly breeze may bring in some low cloud and drizzle for a time.

All in all though it`s a predominately Anticyclonic outlook for the next week--unless of course the ECM has other ideas

[phil nw.]

Do you just look for the word 'High' on the 500hPa charts and instantly think that we're in for more of the same?

Because my interpretation of the latest GFS run shows lowering thicknesses next week, with showers popping up in the south, and becoming more widespread by mid-week.

Always difficult to pinpoint showers in this current pattern but you do raise a fair point.

It does look like that some showers will spread towards the South West and South Wales over the weekend as a shallow low moves close by and these may extend Northwards early next week.

However there`s no major breakdown modelled and with thicknesses rising again towards midweek it is reasonable to look at the overall outlook as essentially settled.

[Costa Del Fal]

I wonder what the likes of GP are thinking re the high ending up too far west, allowing a cooler northerly flow as the Atlantic trough is too far West. Can we expect this to continue or for the high to end up to our East allowing a continuation of the warm/hot weather???