Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Snowy Easterly]

This high pressure always stays in FI though Gavin, plus i tend to view the meteoicel charts as the netweather one makes the high pressure charts look better than they actually are

[Milhouse]

ECM maintains the improving picture for the end of the week and into the weekend but not all areas will see an improvement. Favoured areas to see some lengthy dry spells are northern and eastern parts and it could turn warm, possibly very warm for a time in the south east. For western parts unfortunately its a continuation of the current cool and showery regime but Thursday should be a reasonable day for most.

[Bobby]

GFS UKMO and ECM show widespread heavy rain for most Thur-Fri from that low, worst probably in the west but most places could see a soaking. Will take a few days I guess to nail it down as it could be a fairly complex thing with several pulses of rain.

GFS precip for Friday

Difficult to say what will happen after that. Some signs later in the period that the Azores high will strengthen and northern blocking weaken, so possibly a pattern change is lurking.

Edited June 9, 2012 by Barb-

[Bobby]

The end of next week looks pretty bad on the GFS 18z with the low stalling and pumping up pulse after pulse of heavy rain in the warm moist air into much of the UK.

Rain accumulations

[DTHFCJ]

Wondering how the ensembles were doing tonight? as it appears that the NAO/AO are moving into some sort of positive territory with the heights to the north begining to show less of it. The ECM seems to dim any chances of drying out, wheras GFS seems to deliver something more encouraging and summery. The UKMO seems to be agreeing more with the GFS than the ECM, so in other words it is telling me that ECM is an outlier currently as things are going. By the way how confident did Chris Fawkes sound when he said we were going to have unsettled conditions? Because the UKMO 6 to 15 day update is contradicting his presentation made on Friday lunchtime.

I remember Chris Fawkes doing the weather for the week ahead when we had that great week in may,at the end of that forecast he also announced"and i think this settled spell will last for a long time"......around 10 days it lasted or there or thereabouts id class a long time as at least a few weeks?

sorry for being off topic

[A Winter's Tale]

Good evening folks.

Some pretty wild weather recently with amazing scenes of horrific floods in Wales. I do feel for those affected by the events there.

The good news for those who have had enough of the recent conditions is that it seems that the following days will see a respite from the persistent heavy rain of recent days and sunshine will become more abundant in areas. And there's also some good news for those who like the excitement of storms and convection in the following days.

SUNDAY 9TH JUNE 2012:

Above is the chart for midday Sunday. Quite a contrast from Friday which saw a notable deep low over the UK that brought some incredible winds to the SW, truly remarkable for this time of year. You can see that the chart shows a different scenario from recent days with little in the way of deep lows sweeping in from the SW. In fact, it's probably going to be as settled as it has been all month so far tomorrow. Not particulary warm with the warmest uppers of 5C on the south coast but it should feel a lot more pleasant than recent days. Again, we see high pressure in its familiar position over Greenland and Iceland with 1032mb in central Greenland. This helps to push the jet a little further south than normal and that's why the SW has had some of the most severe of conditions. Although High pressure is still over Greenland, we have seen recently how things can change as we were expecting little change in the theme of atlantic lows but it looks like we are in for a restbite. It could be possible that the high pressure over Greenland may not be there for long.

A look at the weather for tomorrow across the different regions of the UK:

SCOTLAND:

At midnight, a calm night over Scotland with just a few heavy showers over the Central Highlands. Some cloud cover is likely thoughout the night, however as we head towards morning, some clear skies are likely along the Aberdeenshire coast and the SE. Later in the morning and into the afternoon, we see a strip of light rain over the Central Highlands. Not too impressive temperature wise, with maxima around 10-13C, sunshine is likely in the SW and far NW at times. Some heavy showers are possible too over in the SE. In the evening, most of the sunshine is restricted to the far SW and some showers could spread to a more widespread area.

NORTHERN IRELAND:

Some clear skies likely in Northern Ireland overnight, but some cloud cover and the threat of showers is possible in the north. Tomorrow morning should be quite pleasant for central and southern areas with sunshine although temperatures aren't impressive at 10C. Into the afternoon, the skies in southern and central areas may see some more clouds but generally pleasant, some light showers possible in the NW. Into the evening, showers should die away but cloud cover possible, particulary near the coasts.

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND:

Cloudy at times overnight, particulary in the southern half. Into the morning, some sunny intervals are likely but the possibility of showers is likely to increase in the South and SW. Those showers may become more widespread later into the afternoon, however they should begin to die away into the evening.

WALES:

Some cloud near the coasts with clearer spells near the mountains. Some sunshine is likely into the morning with sunny intervals although cloud cover and less sunshine is likely the nearer you are to the sea. Temperatures could be quite pleasant between 12-15C, the threat of the odd shower in the SW coast. Into the afternoon, the cloudiest of the conditions likely in the SW. The evening could see conditions become generally cloudier across the country.

NORTH ENGLAND:

Cloudy overnight with some isolated showers possible. Some sunnier spells are likely into the morning, particulary in the NW although likewise you could end up with cloud cover instead. Showers are likely to develop around 10am onwards, some thundery. These should die away into the evening with cloud cover most dominant in the NE and the coasts. Some sunshine likey down the Irish sea coast. Temperatures could reach as high as 17C in Manchester.

MIDLANDS:

Clear spells are likely overnight but some cloud cover can't be ruled out. Into the morning, could cover should increase in the west although sunshine should be quite widespread. Into the afternoon, sunny intervals are likely and the small likelyhood of a lone shower. Into the evening, could cover could increase with a from the Channel.

SW ENGLAND:

Should be quite cloudy overnight with some showers. Into the morning, cloud cover should increase with rain likely around the south coast and possibly heavy in places. Into the afternoon, the rain should clear further east to affect the south coast and some sunshine can't be ruled out in the far NW. However into the evening, the odd shower and possibility of rain is likely.

SE ENGLAND:

Some clear spells overnight with cloud cover mostly located in the SE coast. Into the morning, a mix of cloudy and sunny periods is likely, and into the afternoon, cloud cover should increase with rain eventually rising. Maxima of 16C tomorrow.

Tomorrow, I'll have a look at what the following days could have in store and what the models are indicating beyond this.

That's good night from me!

[ribster]

Don't give up on summer folks some of the longer range models are starting to hint of changes happening later in the month this would tie in with those who think July will be much better

High pressure slowly begins to move up from Europe and becomes close to the south

This process continues the following day

High pressure continues

Although pressure drops and the end we do however have lower pressure over Greenland and Icland which would hopefully alow the Jet to move up north alowing pressure to build again as we leave June and enter July

The above was based on Saturday mornings run

Currently pressure is very high over Greenland and Iceland an example of this is below

Pressure is shown to fall by this time next week over Greenland and Iceland

Going forward another 7 day's we see pressure is much lower over Greenland and Iceland, this alows the Jet Stream to begin to head north again in turn this alows pressure to build over England

This also alows temperature's to respond

So in summary although June is not the best at present there are signal's for things to improve as June end's so give it time and we could be rewarded

Oh dear Gav, two words spring to mind:Foxtrot Oscar. Would love to see something come to fruition at that range, not least because I will be on the Scottish peaks, but wishful thinking at that time frame. Also, the days will be getting shorter by then...

[bluearmy]

Straw to clutch from the 00z ECM suite for London? Some clustering of drier spells within the general spread of a damp fortnight. Tbh, its the least wettest ECM run I've seen for a fair while and probably reflects the trend for the trough to lift out nw. whether its the 'beginning of the end' or just a blip run, who knows?

the straws continue on the 12z ens precip charts for london. in perspective, there are approx 2" mean rainfall to get through over the next week or so in the se. however, beyond next weekend, the signal drops off dramatically for week 2. mean max temps are in the high teens and by the end of week two, break the twenty barrier. guess its possible that the lowering of heights around greenland will simply drag the azores ridge northeast. a pretty basic and uneventful transition and maybe the lack of 'features' on the spreads supports this. however, too early to get the bunting out - the troughing could prove resilient for a while longer than this.

[Uncle_Barty]

No joy to be had from the models this morning for those wanting some settled weather - it's GFS v ECM for the deep low for Fri/Sat - ECM looks nasty, GFS just has a flabby low....

Edited June 10, 2012 by Jackone
No need to pick up on a spelling error on such a long post.

[shedhead]

No joy to be had from the models this morning for those wanting some settled weather - it's GFS v ECM for the deep low for Fri/Sat - ECM looks nasty, GFS just has a flabby low....

UKMO more in line with ECM, but previous GFS runs have had a similar depth feature in a similar position, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it reappear on the next few runs.

I'll be back!!!

Edited June 10, 2012 by shedhead

[J10]

Yesterdays I showed charts showing the at the models are trying to push the low pressure further west, so there were signs it may struggle to reach us.

http://www.netweathe...4759e13153ba25; You can see by looking at this, UKMO has the low the furthest to the South West, GFS a much less intense low over SE England, and ECM in between. (@T+120)

ECM has the low slightly further east than yesterday was showing but much less intense. ECM's turn to have a few comparative charts.

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecmslp.144.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecmslp.168.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecmslp.192.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecmslp.120.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecmslp.144.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecmslp.168.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecmslp.192.png (Last Chart not to go for the Low Pressure)

Over the next few days, detail should firm up, will it be a direct hit for us, will the worst stay to the west, and will the intensity be as bad as suggested a few days ago.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some changes for Monday on the latest set of model runs as a slow-moving trough system has popped up over southern areas- this will generate an area of more prolonged rain over the SW today which will head into the Midlands tomorrow, and maxima of around 12-13C are suggested over parts of the Midlands. On Tuesday this rather grey drizzly weather may be slow to clear away from East Anglia. Otherwise it's a story of sunshine and showers up until Thursday, with the heaviest showers towards the west, and the north-east seeing the driest conditions.

I don't like the notion of the north-east getting the best of the dry/settled weather in these situations- it's again a very subjective thing, and in this kind of setup it isn't unusual for the driest areas of the UK to be the coolest and cloudiest due to the onshore winds sending stratocumulus in off the North Sea. This is proving to be the case today, although I think towards midweek as we pick up a "cleaner" Arctic airflow conditions over the North Sea should become somewhat clearer.

There are strong suggestions of another wet and windy spell at the end of the week as the low pressure system tracks north-eastwards during Friday and next weekend, though the UKMO has a stronger ridge of high pressure on Friday which would help to delay the onset of the wind and rain (though it would still end up coinciding with the weekend if the UKMO was to verify). After that, suggestions of a slacker pattern with a gradual build of pressure probable from the SW, though with weak troughs (which may or may not contain embedded fronts) hanging around, the weather looks "iffy"- if nothing else though temperatures will probably climb to the seasonal average after generally cool weather so far this month.

[TonyH]

Unfortunately I am anticipating more heavy rain with flooding in the coming week:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4420-weather-guide-monday-11th-to-sunday-17th-june-west-wales-and-central-midlands-specific/

[Rollo]

No joy to be had from the models this morning for those wanting some settled weather - it's GFS v ECM for the deep low for Fri/Sat - ECM looks nasty, GFS just has a flabby low....

Flabby low or a deep one it still looks to me like it will be a very wet cool day,as for the future I think I will hibernate.

[J10]

While everyone has been looking at next weekend (well me anyway), there is that chance of some very heavy rain for Central and Eastern parts of Southern Britain over the next 48 hrs, highlighted by TWS to be fair.

Up to 3 inches of rain in places.

[Milhouse]

Promising finish to the ECM 0z. Nothing overly warm and i would still anticipate some showers in places but i can see a trend for settled conditions to push up from the south west associated with the Azores high. Very much lower pressure over Greenland than what we are seeing now which can only be a good sign.

[Weather Boy]

What strikes me about the models generally is the remarkable amount of agreement, even in FI. It's looking like a shocker of a Fri/Sat, especially for the south, with supressed maxima and wet weather. There is then a relatively sharp change to more clement weather, without a huge pressure build, but FI generally seems to indicate a pressure build for the following week. The fact that this has been shown for a while seems to support this, although caution still required. The long term seems to be settled but with a cool-ish flow.

I am also struck that the ensembles seem to indicate rainfall totals that are nowhere near what I would expect (in my location at least) for these charts and I suspect the truth is that it will be wet to very wet, but nowhere near some of the crazy totals that some of the models are predicting.

Edit: Incidentally, the models appear to closely follow TWS's NW forecast for the month, so let's see if they are all right!

Edited June 10, 2012 by Weather Boy

[tinybill]

athernoon just watced the bbc weather via the red button met office issured weather warning for places will get over a month worth of rain to-night and he said he cant seen any warm weather for the next 2 weeks

[damianslaw]

Short term - a trough feature will bring some very heavy rain to southern regions in the next 24-36 hours or so, its a developing situation, but some places could see some very high totals, thankfully the rain won't be accompanied by the damaging winds we have seen of late.

Northern parts will see further showers some thundery and locally very heavy but many places will escape dry, but another very dissapointingly cool day ahead for the time of year.

Thereafter the rest of the upcoming working week will see the country locked in a very cool northerly/northeasterly airflow with limited amounts of sunshine and always the threat of sudden sharp downpours especially where any trough feature develops. A more organised band of heavy showers could bring some short-lived heavy rain to western parts on Wednesday. As ever in showery airstreams some places could see a dry few days ahead.

All the models indicate a sharp drop in pressure to our SW on Thursday and another developing low pressure system which appears to be on a crash course with the country as we move into the weekend. Next weekend could turn out to be a washout and staying preety cool although some warmer tropical air will move into southwestern parts as the feature tracks NE across the country.

Longer term - there is alot of consistency between ECM and GFS, both are hinting at a stronger rise in pressure to our SW and more importantly a lowering of heights to our NW, but neither are suggesting any strong ridging of heights to our SW our way anytime that soon, whilst these are positive developments for the longer term i.e. end of the month, I suspect the third full week of June will remain rather unsettled with showery outbreaks and frontal attacks from the NW/W, but the last week of the month could finally see heights to our SW ridging sufficiently NE to kill off the atlantic as the jetstream moves much further to the north. The period around the summer solstice is often a pivotal point and is when the northern hemisphere usually settled down into its high summer state.. the way the jetstream behaves around the solstice is often a good indicator of it how it will behave through the rest of the summer, what you don't want to see is a sudden change to a southerly movement, but better for the change to a northward movement to occur (not for the NW mind!) and there are signs this could happen this year, unlike the last 5 summers... In terms of temps at least the summer solstice marks the start of the warmest period of the year, which lasts up to the autumn equinox much like the winter solstice marks the start of the coldest period of the year which ends with the spring equinox.. but it also often marks for the north the start of the greater wetter part of the year (not ending until mid Feb), however for the south the wetter part of the year is much shorter in duration in some years as short as early oct- early feb), hence the NW-SE divide normally comes into residence by the end of June.. so for us in the NW whilst yes the solstice normally means the likelihood of much warmer conditions it is often met with a certain sadness as the prospect of lengthy dry sunny weather becomes much less likely..

Edited June 10, 2012 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

Promising signs from GFS tonight with high pressure shown to build into next week, and at the same time pressure fall's over Greenland and Iceland

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

This in turn sends the Jet well up north out the way

Hopefully GFS is onto some thing tonight

[bluearmy]

I suppose gfs fi has to be right eventually Gavin! Its been showing a more settled solution on at least one of it's op runs each day for over a week now.

[Milhouse]

Confidence building for heights to rise over the UK after next weekends low moves away to the north. Rather concerned that several ensemble members look to build high pressure too far west of the UK which would limit the warmth potential but i guess getting HP over/near the UK is the first hurdle to be overcome. The finer details regarding the highs position are still far from being decided.

[Summer Sun]

Tonights ECM will be interesting to see if it follows GFS tonight with a pressure rise next week

[Summer Sun]

End of ECM follows GFS in lowering pressure of Greenland and Iceland in turn it rises over the UK

Edited June 10, 2012 by Gavin D

[Milhouse]

Slight complication on the ECM 240h chart but i'm a bit unsure about that evolution in FI anyway. From what i've seen so far the Azores high will be the main contributor to any settled spell, but the ECM is having non of it and builds HP off the continent instead with an easterly looking likely. Still a very warm direction as the recent warm spell showed.