Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Frank Trough]

The patterns suggest a slightly below average outlook temperature wise (daytime temperatures), I cant say with night time temperatures, because the GFS is clearly too low with it's minimum predictions at night. Lots of rain to come however it would seem as the low bears down on us from the west, from then it pretty much looks like staying put as it comes up against the European High it has nowhere to go really, so it stays in the area of British Isles. Certainly the outlook would suggest very little change.. as ever high pressure and warmer temperature will stay out in FI consistently, there is a low chance of that actually materialising at the moment it would appear.

So cool, mixed, but fairly wet seems to what we can glean from the outputs so far, perhaps for the remainder of June at least.

*ps I said I wouldn't look at the models until the pattern changed... I thought the pattern was showing signs of changing yesterday but it seems to have reverted back to it's original today!

you can get a pretty good feel for the model output by checking on here first to see who has posted....looking at the model output i wasn't disappointed. I wonder who else might pop up later?!

it feels a bit like the "jam tomorrow" scenario in winter at the moment for those seeking something drier. The GFS has progressively delayed any chance of drier weather and now we see unsettled, wet conditions dominating well into next week.

As for writing off June, i would be a little more cautious. it's only the 11th. Quite a few people (who were they again?) wrote off the whole of may which ended up looking a bit silly.

Still, as it stands, more flooding, more dreadful commutes andmore rivers the colour of real ale to come.

*edit* the ECM also keeps anything decent out in FI....will it get any closer? although having said that, it does tally quite well with the latest 10 day forecast from the METO.

Edited June 11, 2012 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[bluearmy]

some better charts showing for next week within a reasonable if not reliable timescale. however, i'm not sure that any improvement will be sustained for as long as we saw in late may. waiting to see which way the modelling jumps following the possible improvements.

[Milhouse]

Looking beyond the upcoming low which looks set to deliver another awful weekend the 18z looks quite promising. High pressure is in full control by the end of next week with charts looking similar to what we saw at the end of may. As we're a bit closer to mid summer now I could see some high temperatures were it to verify. Also the ECM op has been chopping and changing a lot recently in fi but the mean remains encouraging for a decent rise in pressure for the start of next week.

[William of Walworth]

Looking beyond the upcoming low which looks set to deliver another awful weekend the 18z looks quite promising. High pressure is in full control by the end of next week with charts looking similar to what we saw at the end of may. As we're a bit closer to mid summer now I could see some high temperatures were it to verify. Also the ECM op has been chopping and changing a lot recently in fi but the mean remains encouraging for a decent rise in pressure for the start of next week.

I'm strawclutching with this, and we'll have to keep watching over the next few days, but there are hints for something 'not too bad' starting up by/after mid-next week. Albeit after the most unsettled and wet weekend imaginable for those of us planning to go away -- in Wales in our case, and we may have to cancel if that really deep low doesn't weaken. Few signs of that happening so far.

[AWD]

Short Range and it continues unsettled with the FAX summing things up nicely for the weekend! Things could prove decidely nasty this weekend with heavy rain for Ireland, Wales and Western England, the places that really dont need it!

Medium Term and things look like improving with the Azores high ridging up from the SW. Although no heatwave, it will be a marked improvement on what we currently have, with some dry, warm and sunny weather for the South. The north more prone to cloud, and rain bands around the HP.

Long Term and Im not so sure. This could prove to be a respite rather than a pattern change, with the longer range models dropping pressure over the UK come July and putting us back to square one.

However, all a long way off yet, but as ever, a lot of options on the table as we enter July.

Edited June 12, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[tinybill]

i just looked deep into F1 FANTASY WORLD one word shocking the only dry days are june 22 23

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

[Scorcher]

i just looked deep into F1 FANTASY WORLD one word shocking the only dry days are june 22 23

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=&mode=0

Yawn...

[Radiating Dendrite]

i just looked deep into F1 FANTASY WORLD one word shocking the only dry days are june 22 23

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=&mode=0

You describe it as "F1 FANTASY WORLD" yet take as gospel!

I give up......................

[Methuselah]

Can we please cut out that vacuous one-liners? What will the newbies think? Thanks...

[bluearmy]

possiblities, even probabilities that next week could see a transition to better weather (at last). even stronger possibilities from the longer range ens data that this would be, as weather dude alluded to earlier, a respite in the trough filled season so far. lets hope the models are continuing to struggle with the overall pattern. even if we do see a return to dross at the end of the month, the lw pattern of greeny block nw european trough and euro ridge cannot stay in the same place for the entire season. (can it ?)

[Gavin P]

Hey all,

Here's today's model based musing video for the end of June. An improving picture;

http://gavsweathervids.com/

BCC weeklies look quite good for the last week of June and first week of July, but not sure it'll last too long?

Edited June 12, 2012 by Gavin P

[Bobby]

There looks to be a lot more rain to come over the next week or so for just the places that don't need it. The first band of rain looks to affect most of the country giving a decent soaking, through SE areas may escape the worst.

- then a second pulse of heavy rain may develop mainly affecting England and Wales.

Later on Sunday there may be a second feature soon after the first low bringing more heavy and possibly thundery rain, this time more focused towards central and SE parts but could also give a wider soaking.

I can imagine some places having 2-3 times their monthy average rainfall come next week, indeed some already have. One of the wettest Junes ever??

Edited June 12, 2012 by Barb-

[swebby]

Afternoon,

I'm curious about the temp conditions shown below (06Z GFS for the early hours of the 19th) for the west country.

It is not so much if it will or will not happen (it's 6-7 days away so very unlikely) but i'm trying to see why the model would predict 0C in a slack SW flow so near to mid summers day? Am i missing something obvious that means these temps are perfectly possible or is it a case of really poor model performance?

Cheers

S

[Summer Sun]

I can imagine some places having 2-3 times their monthy average rainfall come next week, indeed some already have. One of the wettest Junes ever??

The wettest ever June was recorded just a few years ago in 2007

The Met Office confirmed that 134.5mm (5.3in) of rain fell across the four countries. The average June rainfall in the UK is 72.6mm (3in).

A new record was also set for England, with 140.2mm (5.5in) of rain.

And we all know what followed during the summer of 2007...................Not saying lightning will strike twice but its something to bare in mind

EDIT

The Met Office are now forecasting that there is a signal that central and southeast England may see above average rainfall at times as we end June and enter July this is something worth keeping in mind

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited June 12, 2012 by Gavin D

[Bobby]

Afternoon,

I'm curious about the temp conditions shown below (06Z GFS for the early hours of the 19th) for the west country.

It is not so much if it will or will not happen (it's 6-7 days away so very unlikely) but i'm trying to see why the model would predict 0C in a slack SW flow so near to mid summers day? Am i missing something obvious that means these temps are perfectly possible or is it a case of really poor model performance?

Cheers

S

Those are the overnight lows which are indeed very chilly for June. But probably unlikely. The daytime temperatures are more like the mid-teens.

[bluearmy]

The wettest ever June was recorded just a few years ago in 2007

And we all know what followed during the summer of 2007...................Not saying lightning will strike twice but its something to bare in mind

EDIT

The Met Office are now forecasting that there is a signal that central and southeast England may see above average rainfall at times as we end June and enter July this is something worth keeping in mind

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

thats the same wording re fridays ecm 32 dayer update gavin. today should have seen a change. interesting ...............................................

[Summer Sun]

thats the same wording re fridays ecm 32 dayer update gavin. today should have seen a change. interesting ...............................................

Ah right didn't know that re ecm, what should todays change been?

[Summer Sun]

High pressure tries to build on tonight's 12z but it never get's control

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[bluearmy]

Ah right didn't know that re ecm, what should todays change been?

I dont know gavin as i dont have access to it. matt normally posts something on TWO or tweets. havent seen anything. lets wait to see what meto 30 dayer says tomorrow. if its no different then the latest ecm 32 dayer must again be showing no specific anomolys in the two to four week timeframe.

[Methuselah]

Can we all please stick to the models?

[William of Walworth]

High pressure tries to build on tonight's 12z but it never get's control

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

I've seen considerably worse for next week**, once this current shocking w/e deluge that seems nailed for Friday and Saturday, is done with

**(Said, he, very very tentatively and cautiously!)

</strawclutching AND hopecasting simultaneoulsy. How's that for a June combination?>

Slightly OT : we've now booked into a guesthouse in Builth Wells for this coming w/e (Fri to Sun) rather than camping, for our little 'outdoor event'! Looks like we'll be grateful for that here in Wales!

[Summer Sun]

I wonder where UKMO will go from Monday high pressure get's very close to the south west but will it move further up during the week?

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[Lewis]

I wonder where UKMO will go from Monday high pressure get's very close to the south west but will it move further up during the week?

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

I don't think HP will come in to play within the next 10-14 days looking at the models, it'll come close but no cigar.

Possibly at the end of the month is when we could see HP establishing.

[Bobby]

The ECM is unsettled pretty much all the way

+192:

Settles down a bit at +240 but there's another low knocking on the door

This unsettled spell looks very stubborn to me,.

Edited June 12, 2012 by Barb-

[William of Walworth]

How many changes in the detailed synoptic positioning shown by the different models, are we going to see between now and (say) next Monday though?

Not sure how wise it is, so far, yet, to write off ANY prospects of HP having more (note emphasis) of an influence for some areas (I'm talking from about next Wednesday onwards here, out of self interest partly I must admit!) -- for instance a relatively limited regression in the trough NWwards, and a relatively limited shift in the track of that deep low further North, could make on the ground conditions further South in the UK feel fairly different.

Also neither is it impossible (yet) that what look like very deep LP systems at this stage might weaken/deintensify, it's happened before.

Please don't think I'm predicting a heatwave or anything near it for next week/the w/e of the 23rd, or predicting anything really yet.

Just wanting to keep some hope alive despite some of the evidence starting to conspire against me .... still FI mind.

(I've already almost written off this coming weekend. If there was any synoptic justice -- not that there often is -- the following one would have a bit more of a summery element .... )

Edited June 12, 2012 by William of Walworth