Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

[Liam J]

Heavy rain and downpours on and off all night here, still thunder starved.... Looking more showery over the Irish Sea atm with some heavy ppn returns on the radar especially over NW Wales currently, merging into more organised rain over NW England.

[IanR]

I wonder if Wigan will get thunder again today, of course not because I am here today

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 16/06/2012 08:30

Forecast Summary Map

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Valid: 16/06/2012 08:00 - 17/06/2012 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Long-wave trough over Nern Europe drives a deeply cyclonic flow across the UK on Saturday, with fairly deep mid-level and associated surface low moving NE across central UK during the day.

... REP of IRELAND, ENGLAND, WALES and S SCOTLAND ...

Cyclonic moist southwesterly flow with cool mid-upper temps, characterised by steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will become increasingly unstable to surface heating during Saturday ... with widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across Ireland, England and Wales. Weak deep-layer shear will tend to limit any severe potential today, though loosely organised storms may train along wrap around fronts/troughs and pose a threat of localised flooding in places and storms will be capable of hail and gusty winds too. 15-25 knts of 0-1km shear is indicated where greatest instability is highlighted by models, so a brief isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

[Coast]

A quick round up from me this morning. There are no forecasts, other than the NW one above, out there for today so here are some indicators:

Strong lightning ensemble chart:

Some CAPE in the areas of yesterdays storms:

Shear along the Channel:

Convergence again in the areas that got storms yesterday:

Lapse rates in the SE:

More rain!!

Helicity around the Humber:

Gusts over Dorset:

So maybe something out in the Irish sea to start out midday then transferring East to areas that saw storms yesterday again?

[Deluxe]

I wouldn't mind another storm

[P-M]

Aye I seen a cracking little storm in Middlesbrough yesterday pitch black almost at one point. I am looking forward to seeing if today can produce anything further north this time we shall see!

Edited June 16, 2012 by Paul-Michael

[Eye to the sky]

Not holding much hope for here today,this time yesterday we had strong sunshine to help get things going.Today we've just got slate grey skies that are producing some light rain and this nagging gusty SE wind continues to batter everything in the garden!!

[Robbie Garrett]

The dailymail did something worthwhile

[Staffordshire]

Cant really see much happening today, too much cloud cover here...

[Lynxus]

I wouldn't mind another storm

I wouldnt mind A storm

[Chris.R]

Well I am looking forward to this afternoon, we have 730 J/Kg of CAPE and a LI of -2. It is brighterning up here and the sun is trying hard to come out.

[Lewis]

Looks like overcast and showers is the order of the day today for many parts, very little in the way of sunshine, with low surface temperatures storms are really going to get going this afternoon, having looked at the latest NMM there has been a slight downgrade in energy, and there's very little CIN out there.

So for some areas the chance of the odd storm is possible, but today is more likely to be a case of sharp showers with some organised spells of rain, with the odd rumble of thunder, and of course the odd flash of lightning for eastern and Northern areas.

I had a feeling a lot of cloud cover would hamper things today.

Lewis

Edited June 16, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Costa Del Fal]

So much cloud on the satellite. I stand by my judgement of last night where there is very little thundery weather whereas some were ramping it up! A lot of cloud to clear before anything can get going.

Edited June 16, 2012 by Blizzards

[Muffelchen]

Quite warm and sticky to day - currently 14.9°C with 80% humidity. However, it has been cloudy with outbreaks of light showery rain. This means that insolation is limited here (unlike yesterday when things were wild I understand).

If we are to get something here this afts it really needs the sun to come out and do its magic. This would raise the temps a few degrees and, with all the parameters in place, I am pretty sure we would have a storm, however, without the sunshine I think its a bust.

Bring on the sunshine!

[Chris.R]

It's very quiet in here. I'm sure something will kick off later.

[Convective]

It's very quiet in here. I'm sure something will kick off later.

Hopefully!

Had 127mm of rain here in the last 36 hours!

[Lynxus]

Just a moderate rain shower here.

Nothing spectacular.

It is however very humid. Im shocked more showers / storms are not popping up

[A.J]

Just a moderate rain shower here.

Nothing spectacular.

It is however very humid. Im shocked more showers / storms are not popping up

A lack of insolation for many parts mate.....far too much low & mid-level cloud around dampening and stopping convection from initiating....the best of the sunshine is over the SE quadrant of England

[Lynxus]

A lack of insolation for many parts mate.....far too much low & mid-level cloud around dampening and stopping convection from initiating....the best of the sunshine is over the SE quadrant of England

Hmm yeah,

Tbh considering estofex dont even have a warning for us, that should be a sign.

Still.. Its only 2:30 and looks like clearer skies are due to rush in soon..

So who knows.

[NUT]

Still doesn't really appear to be anything electrified if I looking correctly. Might be a bit of a bust for everybody now

[Chris.R]

The sun is out now and showers are building. It's actually sunny and raining at the same time now!

[Supacell]

Theres some stronger echos just crossing Lancashire and east Cumbria but none of this is electrical either. I cannot see anything happening around here as its has been cloudy with light to moderate rain all day long with a cold wind. More like a day in October than a June day with a risk of storms.

Despite some fairly decent thundery showers so far this summer there has been a distinct lack of the MCS's from the continent that I miss, and have done for the last 5-6 years. I remember as a kid watching storms that lasted for hours overnight with spectacular lightning. I am sure that although the UK doesnt seem to get this anymore there are still plenty of these events across the near continent. I am strongly considering storm chasing on the continent at some point last week June/first week of July as I am off work for 2 weeks. I was hoping in that time to see something here but with that jet stream steadfast to our south I just cannot see me seeing anything decent by staying in the uk.

However, i have never been abroad before so will be chasing in an area and with weather i am totally unfamiliar with. At least in the UK i have learnt some of the common patterns and good places to see storms. For example thundery shower set ups whereby showers build over western parts in the morning and then turn thundery as they transfer east.

Edited June 16, 2012 by Supacell

[Chris.R]

A heavy shower here atm. No thunder though.

[Deluxe]

Plenty of heavy convective precipitation running from NW England eastwards. Nothing electrical though, I guess it wasn't to be today We're under a moderate shower at the moment. It looks nice and the sun keeps coming out, too!

Edited June 16, 2012 by Hartle

[Eye to the sky]

Check out the storm in Poland at the football.Repeat of last night again!!