Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

[cyclonic happiness]

You mean this in June 2006. Not cricket ball sized but certainly large hail!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...m_gallery.shtml

I know but I've told you a million times that I'm prone to exaggerate

[Sainsbo]

Winds still blowing strong here. Although there is no rain, it's still fun to see recycling boxes fly down the street

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Im suprised the forum is so quiet! probably because of the football, but there is some exciting weather in wales/SW midds atm!

Going SE of here I think, no storms for me today

[Methuselah]

Basket-ball sized hail this morning!

[Supacell]

From the radar there looks to be a nice storm to the NE of Brum, maybe heading Lichfield way. Anyone down there seeing or hearing anything?

I'm back home in stormless Bradford now. If I get a storm here this evening i shall eat my socks and you tube it to here!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Decent structure on this approaching Nottingham...

Finally a good storm coming for Nottingham?

[JinxTheCat]

Looks like it, heading stright for Birmingham. To far east for me today..... nothing but on off rain.

Nothing but rain here. The most action has been on ITV

[Staffordshire]

From the radar there looks to be a nice storm to the NE of Brum, maybe heading Lichfield way. Anyone down there seeing or hearing anything?

I'm back home in stormless Bradford now. If I get a storm here this evening i shall eat my socks and you tube it to here!

im in chase terrace atm west of lichfield, nothig here currently but ill keep you updated!

[Deluxe]

Well I'm out of the no storms club this year

First thunderstorm in roughly a year and it didn't disappoint! We could hear it on the reserve for quite some time before it got close. Very impressive straight line winds

The rain was nothing special although I feel we didn't get a direct hit. Plenty of good thunder though - quite frequent at times - occasionally 3-4 lighting strikes per minute at it's peak. Some cracking cg's, too. That'll tide me over until next year! (Storm occurred roughly around 2:30-3pm ish)

Edited June 15, 2012 by Hartle

[Lynxus]

Basket-ball sized hail this morning!

LOL

Its been oddly nice here considering the daily mail and other news outlets would have us thinking the end of the world was coming.

Not much more than a stiff breeze, Ive even managed to get sunburnt by going for a ride this eve.

Lovely weather!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

That storm wasn't that great by the time it reached Nottingham, but I did observe two bits of lightning and some thunder, and got some lightning on a still photo so I'm still pretty pleased.

[Snow free zone]

Rain has stopped here finally. Sun coming out. Leading to the development of some really angry looking clouds to my south. Just started to rain again.

[matt_in_dudley]

Nothing other than rain here since that one crack earlier everything seems to be just to the south, can see the cloud building but it never gets here, just goes across my field of vision

[Mesoscale]

Absolutley nothing here all day! its been sunny for most of it all be it a bit windy.

[Bobby]

Still pouring down here. 60mm from this system so far.

[TonyH]

Still pouring down here. 60mm from this system so far.

Yes the Valleys and Beacons are getting a pasting today!

[IanR]

ANNOYED.Just learned from my dad that there was thunder and lighnting in Wigan today, but typicaly I was in work at ST Helens where there was just a poxy shower and heard nothing , This happened a few times last year ,nothing in St helens but some poxy showers overhead then becoming thundery as they pass my house in Hindley GRRR.... and it uses up Wigans qota of storm days while I am not here,,,GRRR again !

Edited June 15, 2012 by IanR

[Supacell]

OK they are not great as the storm was not the strongest of storms - but at least it was a storm. Pictures are taken from a village called Eastoft looking towards Scunny at around 2pmish.

Storm was probably about 4-5 miles away at a guess.

Edited June 15, 2012 by Supacell

[Biggin]

OK they are not great as the storm was not the strongest of storms - but at least it was a storm. Pictures are taken from a village called Eastoft looking towards Scunny at around 2pmish.

Storm was probably about 4-5 miles away at a guess.

Good Work there

[Lewis]

After a pretty stormy day yesterday today will start off exactly the same, with thunderstorms possible across much England.

With low pressure in charge, with weak to moderate Shear for Eastern areas along with moderate CAPE values and a negative lift index there is a risk of thunderstorms once again, some of these may be severe, but a low risk at the moment.

We will have showers forming over the West Midlands from the word go tomorrow pushing North Eastwards in to central areas and from mid morning to early afternoon moving across Lincolnshire and Yorkshire.

At the moment the Pennies and areas East of the hills are at the highest risk of seeing heavy showers, containing lightning, hail, gusty winds, and torrential rain, with a combined low risk of thunderstorms becoming severe enough to birth a Tornado.

You can see the chart below, which shows the area of low pressure which is centered to the East of Ireland. Isobars rather tight giving some strengthening winds particularly for North Wales and Western parts of England, during cells the winds may become very gusty at times.

The rule for today is for pretty much the same as yesterday showers moving from the SW to the NE.

As you can see below there is sufficient CAPE & LI values across the Midlands, SE England, EA, and North in to Lincolnshire and Yorkshire to aid the development of thunderstorms. Values typically around 500-600 /kg of CAPE with a Lifted index of -1 to -2.

Below is the precipitation rate chart also taken from the NMM model, this shows where the precipitation tomorrow at 11am is most likely to be.

As we head on through to the afternoon showers will become increasingly heavy, organised and more widespread, ingredients became very favorable for thunderstorms across large parts of the East and N England. Below is the CAPE & LI values at 1pm today.

As seen in the above chart, the energy potential continues.

Temperatures typically around 15-18c for Eastern and South Eastern areas.

With dew points around 11-12c with 13c possible in some locations

The 18z from yesterday shows the higher total convective accumulations of rainfall further North across the central belt of N England/ North East England & North Yorkshire, of course this is no certainty, and these charts should be used as guide, but they are taken from the higher resolution model, so verification at this time frame is pretty accurate it got yesterday spot on.

Surface temperatures vary form 12-15c for the far North of England, as we head South in to Yorkshire values of around 15-16c are expected, then as we head further South in to EA and the SE/Home counties the surface temperatures are expected to be around 20-24, which coincides with the NMM cloud cover chart that shows breaks in the cloud more likely across the SE so surface temperate are expected to be on the increase for any areas that experience breaks for a sustained period of time.

Yesterday the NMM did show vast amounts of cloud cover, although here in Hull it was pretty much breaks in the clouds some long breaks too, in between thunderstorms, so the surface temperature chart is all dependent on this. Come morning when the sun comes up it could be a different story for many parts and surface temperatures may be much higher.

My forecast/summary for today

Tomorrow will start on a overcast note for many western areas, further East and SE a hazy start with cloud cover, lifting as the morning heads on.

Showers will readily develop across SW England, Wales and the West Midlands before heading North Eastwards.

Some of these showers will be locally heavy, containing Hail, Lightning, & Torrential downpours, with a low risk of a funnel/tornado.

For more North Western and Northern areas of England and Wales they will be more in the way of cloud, as precipitation will continue during the early hours of this morning, becoming patchier as we head on in to the late morning.

Around 11am-12pm showers will start to form across these areas becoming heavy, frequent and more organised. Thundery for Eastern areas.

I have done a risk map below to show the areas I think will see the thunderstorms based on the current model output, of course this can all change come the 00z and 06z GFS/NMM but I doubt it very much.

So all in all a carbon copy of yesterday.

Lewis

Edited June 16, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Slowpoke]

It's a shame these charts are so deep in FI, imagine the thunderstorms this low (imported from the continent) would produce! Hot and humid with big storms, yes please!

Edited June 16, 2012 by Slowpoke

[ZONE 51]

That storm wasn't that great by the time it reached Nottingham, but I did observe two bits of lightning and some thunder, and got some lightning on a still photo so I'm still pretty pleased.

Great photo along with all the others members photos they have uploaded today

Something on your photo MCT that could be something like a funnel or cloud rotation, it's inbetween the tower tops on the left in the distance at the cloud base.. anything?

Edited June 16, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Thanks SFL good forecast.

[Costa Del Fal]

Im not sure what to think of today. Maybe some thundery showers, not as widespread as Friday and probably more in the way of stubborn cloud and generic rainfall. I hope im wrong but I would predict it to be as good as Friday tbh.

[ZONE 51]

My convective/heavy rainfall map here for today..

Edited June 16, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm