Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

[Arnie Pie]

Where's the time lapse?

Trust me....this is a time lapse

edit; which can be at different speeds

Edited June 19, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Lewis]

Very hot and humid here in hull, just been for a trip to brid and Hornsea, some towers about and they continue to pop up maybe something later?

Just invested 250 quid on a full hd 50x zoom Panasonic cam corder has time lapse on it so when I get home I'll pop to the Humber and hope I can get some of the towers rising.

[mattyk1985]

The weekend storm potential looked great yesterday, now the last few runs of the GFS have pretty much removed any potential. :-(

Was looking forward to spending my weekend off chasing around the Humber lol

Edited June 19, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Supacell]

After this week i have the next 2 weeks off and from the models it looks like i'm going to very limited opportunities to storm chase. Grrrr!!!

[Lauren]

Same absolutely amazing clouds out there, but no sign of a storm.

[Sprites]

...that's a good one!

may have to issue a met office severe lack of thunderstorm warning for netweather

[Andy Bown]

Very promising BBC Points West forecast from Ian Fergusson this evening.

It showed cloud building into the SW/West Country by this time tomorrow with scattered showers - from experience of these set ups

I'd suggest a lot of AltCas in 24 hours time with sporadic sharp showers.

Whether they develop through the evening is open to question but it must be possible given there's going to be a war, moist plume

pushing North from France and a front/LOW moving in from the Atlantic.

Ian's forecast showed rain with embedded thunderstorms spreading North through tomorrow night with, at the stage, the heaviest rain

expected in the early daylight hours of Thursday (5am ish).

[Aceman]

Very promising BBC Points West forecast from Ian Fergusson this evening.

It showed cloud building into the SW/West Country by this time tomorrow with scattered showers - from experience of these set ups

I'd suggest a lot of AltCas in 24 hours time with sporadic sharp showers.

Whether they develop through the evening is open to question but it must be possible given there's going to be a war, moist plume

pushing North from France and a front/LOW moving in from the Atlantic.

Ian's forecast showed rain with embedded thunderstorms spreading North through tomorrow night with, at the stage, the heaviest rain

expected in the early daylight hours of Thursday (5am ish).

cant remember the last time we had night time lightning, what night time was designed for, amongst other things!

[mattyk1985]

cant remember the last time we had night time lightning, what night time was designed for, amongst other things!

Been 2 years here I think. Had some great night storms growing up, the last decent one was going back to 2005!

[SteveB]

I was only thinking the other day, I can't remember the last time I've had proper storm. I remember when we used to get storms & we would switch everything off & pull all the plugs out of the sockets, I haven't done that for at least 6yrs, going back to June 2006.

I am really struggling to remember what it is like to sit through a proper storm, yeah I have seen lightning & heard thunder in the last 6 yrs, but that's only the odd flash or rumble.

Proper storm is a distant memory at the moment, hopefully that will change soon.

Edited June 19, 2012 by SteveB

[richep]

We certainly have'nt had much luck down here in the last few years have we Steve !!

[SteveB]

Not at all, it seems to be a breeding ground for storms down here, as they move north and develop into storms to affect the Oxford area & further east.

[viking_smb]

anything from the latest GFS? about tomorrow night

[robt]

Large Cb gone up to the SE of me in the last hour. Looks like its got some lowering in places too.

[Harry]

anything from the latest GFS? about tomorrow night

IMO its looking fairly promising...GFS is keen for the precip during tomorrow night (at this stage) to be showery and heavy, intensifying right up until midnight and into the early hours - note that, if GFS is right, initiation won't kick off until LATE in the day across France (so please don't flood the boards complaining that it's looking quiet!!!). Furthermore, SBCAPE is present largely over the continent and not over our shores so how electrical any precip will be is difficult to state (unless MLCAPE values are up which I can't verify, but would suggest will be).

The most unfortunate thing for central and eastern areas is that any storms are unlikely to arrive until well after midnight (so a late one).

[Evening thunder]

A bit too far West for me personally, but in line with the GFS and NMM so far this morning.

That's one of the most dead on charts for me I've seen! No doubt the centre will shift somewhere else though.

Very hot and humid here in hull, just been for a trip to brid and Hornsea, some towers about and they continue to pop up maybe something later?

Just invested 250 quid on a full hd 50x zoom Panasonic cam corder has time lapse on it so when I get home I'll pop to the Humber and hope I can get some of the towers rising.

20/21C very hot and humid? just shows how rubbish this month has been for warm weather!

Some of the chart's I'm seeing are looking pretty reasonable, the rainfall forecast map on the MetO site looks pretty good for parts of the south into the early hours.

[Supacell]

The most unfortunate thing for central and eastern areas is that any storms are unlikely to arrive until well after midnight (so a late one).

If i were down your neck of the woods, and going on current charts, i'd be getting an early night and setting the alarm for about 1am

[viking_smb]

What about south west england/wales?

[Lewis]

That's one of the most dead on charts for me I've seen! No doubt the centre will shift somewhere else though.

20/21C very hot and humid? just shows how rubbish this month has been for warm weather!

Some of the chart's I'm seeing are looking pretty reasonable, the rainfall forecast map on the MetO site looks pretty good for parts of the south into the early hours.

Seemed hotter than that, or maybe it was the virus sweating out of me haha.

Just done a test on my camcorder, very pleased with it, i'll upload the test video soon, really looking forward to using it as i'll get some amazing quality footage. Just got a 64MB HD SDCARD it's writing at 40mb per second.

Lewis

[Lewis]

New camcorder test. just need a storm now but below is a taster of what quality of videos i'll upload for you guys money well spent.

[mattyk1985]

Any chance of these night time storms on Thursday coming up this next of the woods?

[Lewis]

Any chance of these night time storms on Thursday coming up this next of the woods?

No mate, small chance during the day though but the Wednesday night/Thursday early hours won't affect us.

[mattyk1985]

No mate, small chance during the day though but the Wednesday night/Thursday early hours won't affect us.

At the minute then Sunday looks like the best day for us!

[AWD]

Met Office Radar currently showing some very heavy rain indeed spreading up from the South West tomorrow night!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather

[Lewis]

At the minute then Sunday looks like the best day for us!

It's actually looking pretty poor for thunderstorms for our neck of the words after yesterdays runs all the focus is to the South of the UK, it can re-appear as quick as it vanished on the models, but the GFS has been bang in form lately.

Thursday for example shows the energy south around the Wash/Southern Lincolnshire and the East Midlands, this is at low resolution, come the 6pm chart for Thursday it shows came CAPE values over us, around 200-300 cape with a LI of 0 to -1.

it's going to be a case of the NMM and NAE (higher resolution models) to determine the thunderstorm potential.

Lewis

Edited June 19, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis