Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

[Coast]

One to watch maybe?

Always like to catch the sneaky unexpected ones!!! ESTOFEX were having none of it earlier, but the rest of Europe is a convective mess!!!

Giving rise to:

[NUT]

Surprised nobody mentioning that there seems to be some lightning being detected through Northern Ireland

[Keraunic]

Yes, I noticed the strikes in N Ireland. They seem to be everywhere but where we want em.

[todd1970]

Always like to catch the sneaky unexpected ones!!! ESTOFEX were having none of it earlier, but the rest of Europe is a convective mess!!!

Giving rise to:

That mass of lightning just coming into the south of Denmark and Northern Germany must be the same system that moved through France last night,

Watched it for about 15 mins on Earthcam Paris , live from the Eiffel Tower , what a show .. massive CG's and almost constant IC's .. i want some !!!

[Coast]

Surprised nobody mentioning that there seems to be some lightning being detected through Northern Ireland

Watched it for about 15 mins on Earthcam Paris , live from the Eiffel Tower , what a show .. massive CG's and almost constant IC's .. i want some !!!

Sorry not paying attention again (work beckons and all that!). I normally have my spidey senses working when it gets within 50 miles or so though!!!!

[BFS/BHD]

Seems as if everyone is having a bit of thunder in Ireland today apart from Belfast.

[Andy Bown]

What are people's thoughts about Wednesday night in the Southern areas of England?

We'll have had a warm day, the LOW is still in the Atlantic and the Fax Charts show a trough moving up from the S/SW at 00.00 Thursday. To me that suggests good thundery potential ....

[Coast]

What are people's thoughts about Wednesday night in the Southern areas of England?

Hmmm, GFS has it building a little into Thursday early:

But not enough for a storm on the UK mainland:

(might see some nice flashes from the high-points along the South coast?)

CAPE and LI are really close but are they good enough in Kent and Sussex along that Channel coast?

It's all tantalizingly close according to GFS, but I'd like to see some more runs and the hi-res stuff come into range before calling it at this point

[A.J]

Coast....I'm guessing those are SbCAPE charts .....for what Andy is alluding to I'd be much more interested in MLCAPE values as we have a weather system encroaching from the WSW advecting up some moist unstable air from the south, I'd be looking at the potential for elevated convection.

[Coast]

Coast....I'm guessing those are SbCAPE charts .....

Never considered the level of them TBH, I think they may be a combination and I can't get the Netweather Extra NMM, SB and ML CAPE charts out at this range to check. Lightningwizard HiRLAM charts only show +60 hours max, so may have to wait until tomorrow or Wednesday morning first thing to see.

Nice situation to monitor though and it will be down to the wire I guess, being as any potential is right over me!!!!

[A.J]

Never considered the level of them TBH, I think they may be a combination and I can't get the Netweather Extra NMM, SB and ML CAPE charts out at this range to check. Lightningwizard HiRLAM charts only show +60 hours max, so may have to wait until tomorrow or Wednesday morning first thing to see.

Nice situation to monitor though and it will be down to the wire I guess, being as any potential is right over me!!!!

re MLCAPE values, I used to use the SKYWARN GFS chart plotter, but I can't get the damned plotter to work, keep on getting a bad script error

[Coast]

re MLCAPE values, I used to use the SKYWARN GFS chart plotter, but I can't get the damned plotter to work, keep on getting a bad script error

Just been trying to do the same and got the error!!!!!

http://www.skywarn.o...FS_plotter.html

http://www.ukweather...tter/gfs-v2.asp

Edit, here we go, NW Extra GFS:

[A.J]

Just been trying to do the same and got the error!!!!!

http://www.skywarn.o...FS_plotter.html

http://www.ukweather...tter/gfs-v2.asp

Edit, here we go, NW Extra GFS:

...tis working again now....yes, there is some moderate MLCAPE for southern & western districts during the over-night period

,

images from UKww/Skywarn GFS plotter

..hmm.....please edit if there are copyright issues (I'm not sure)...cheers

Edited June 18, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Coast]

Hmmmm, skew T is just the other side of marginal at 00z then drops from there:

http://www.skystef.be/storm-indices.htm

[Convective]

Don't know if it's to do with convection but the mid level (Cumulus?) clouds here are passing really quick indicating strong shear however the are rotating in certain points in the sky really fast (Not unlike a tornado in the sky!) Not sure whats happening?

[Supacell]

Thursday is looking good for fairly widespread convection on the 12z GFS. Lets see if it can still be there by the time we get there.

[Mesoscale]

My dad saw a funnel cloud in Oxfordshire today not sure exactly were but he has a picture on his phone. ill see if i can get it uploaded later.

[The watcher]

Re: convectives post ^

I call those rollers, they are the halfway house to tornadic activity I suppose. Good low - mid level shear, lack of convection.

[MP-R]

A nice bank of solid cbs visible against the dimming light on the western horizon this evening. Anything thundery over Wales?

[viking_smb]

no just dying showers mate

[Lewis]

Can anyone recommend a decent HD camcorder, looking to invest in a new one for storm chasing seeing as though this week looks pretty active.

lewis

[ZONE 51]

Can we keep the potential for wednesday night/thursday... i would expect that as we have a wider gap for a show this time then we usually do, then we should see something quite widespread and active, wider gap i mean less risk of losing the potential!

Edited June 19, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Lewis]

Can we keep the potential for wednesday night/thursday... i would expect that as we have a wider gap for a show this time then we usually do, then we should see something quite widespread and active, wider gap i mean less risk of losing the potential!

One would hope.

But after looking at the latest GFS this morning, Friday, Saturday, and Sundays potential has just vanished.

Lewis

[Coast]

Well rather selfishly I'm keeping my fingers crossed for any potential during the late hours of Wednesday/early hours of Thursday as if it does happen, it looks good for my part of the World. In the meantime it looks to be quite quiet generally with just that blip for the South tomorrow night and onwards for a few hours:

So far we have only covered models from GFS so it will be interesting to see what other models start showing through the course of the day. Unfortunately GFS has sent things a bit further South West over France overnight:

Still. if it's changed that much overnight, it can always change back again and how many times do we keep saying don't follow consecutive runs??!!!!!!!!

[Lewis]

Well rather selfishly I'm keeping my fingers crossed for any potential during the late hours of Wednesday/early hours of Thursday as if it does happen, it looks good for my part of the World. In the meantime it looks to be quite quiet generally with just that blip for the South tomorrow night and onwards for a few hours:

Still. if it's changed that much overnight, it can always change back again and how many times do we keep saying don't follow consecutive runs??!!!!!!!!

Fingers crossed for you Coast, things can change/develop quickly. For example around 5-6pm here yesterday after a pretty clear and bright day, massive towers cropped up, went to the humber view point to get a good view, and they was not a cap they just kept growing and growing, sadly no storms.

GFS is what I would call a rollercoaster of potential

Lewis

Edited June 19, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis