Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

[Dan the Man]

Check out the storm in Poland at the football.Repeat of last night again!!

Estofex did publish a Level 2 warning for Poland.

[weatherobsuk]

Hints of LEWP trying to form moving southeastwards across Manchester, just drizzle and clouds here for now.

[ZONE 51]

On Sunday night a feature could bring heavy rain to southern areas, the strongest rain looks like the southcoast and i wouldn't rule out thundery elements in the channel maybe Kent coast, most if not all of the thundery activity is most likely over France so unlikely to get imported storms this time, unless a change brings the feature north. It is something of interest to watch.

Edited June 17, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

That's a lot of rain, but I'm not sure if it will be convective

In fact a few quite days coming up in the South:

[Andy Bown]

A good convergence line running through Devon, Somerset and Wiltshire this afternoon with some heavy

downpours within it.

Meanwhile the next large area of rain is rapidly arriving from the SW!

[MP-R]

Just started spitting large raindrops from that convergence line. On the northern edge of it and it has weakened somewhat moving northwards but quite dark out now and temperature dropped down to 17.7C after a high of 20.2C earlier.

[MP-R]

Had some very impressive skies here for a short while with what almost looked like a bit of rotation before the heavy rain arrived and dulled out the definition in the sky. Just had some quite thundery rain which has now eased off a bit.

[AWD]

I had that to whilst driving back from Yate! Nothing Thundery but very heavy with very large raindrops!

[syncmaster]

Lightening detected just north of bedford, and just to the west of cambridge...

[mackerel sky]

Random lightening strike and thunder here about 15 minutes ago. Checked the lightening detector map, and there it was right overhead. Only strike in the whole of the UK! Looks like there is something afoot... nothing on the radar an hour ago, now throwing it down!

Edited June 17, 2012 by mackerel sky

[Lynxus]

Lol @ sky.

Indeed.

Looking south theres some heavy cells popping up!

What is going on.. Worth keeping an eye on.

[A.J]

quite a few lightning strikes being detected east of Northampton, heading up into the east Midlands, also some showery heavy rain pushing up into the south & west Midlands....This shower/thundery activity was modelled by the NMM hi-res models for the past 2 or 3 runs, could be a very wet first part of the night in these areas

[syncmaster]

Random lightening strike and thunder here about 15 minutes ago. Checked the lightening detector map, and there it was right overhead. Only strike in the whole of the UK! Looks like there is something afoot... nothing on the radar an hour ago, now throwing it down!

weird 3/4 strikes showing up now, enjoy,,,,,,

[A.J]

weird 3/4 strikes showing up now, enjoy,,,,,,

see above post...not unexpected...hi-res outputs have been progging potential for the midlands/east of England tonight for the past 18 hours

[SnowJoke]

Reported in the general weather thread been having really heavy downpours popping up from nowhere surrounding MK for 45mins or so, sure I saw lightning to my NE now about 3 times and one from the east over bedford / cranfield way. As i type another shower has started and is dropping heavier rain.

[mackerel sky]

I do love a storm at night! Absolutely bucketing down here.

[Lynxus]

Wow, getting quite lively down south!

[Keraunic]

Oh pleeeeease let's have some of it in Norwich. Pretty please.

[twister2005]

Radar is looking good any thunder being reported ?

Looks like its coming this way :-)

[Hughsey]

Torrential rain for 15 or so minutes here, only heard some very distant thunder though.

[samadamsuk]

Is it me or does the situation on radar look pretty interesting? I dont know what the hells going on synopticaly as usual! haha, but I'm wondering if there's a nose of warmer 850 temps from that low over france coming up against the westerly flow, and forming a boundary Northampton > SW - the rains picking up fast here! Edit - pouring down. Bring it on

Sam (Cirencester - sorry Mode - I'll update my location when I can find it)

[Big Bird]

There was a flash of lightning about half an hour ago here in Oxford. Completely unexpected! The detectors didn't show anything in the area, either, with the nearest strikes being apparently in the Peterborough area...

[ZONE 51]

Lifted index - unstable=negative-yellow/slightly unstable-light blue

Yellow lifted index or unstable air-thunderstorms possible-highest risk

Light blue lifted index or slightly unstable air-heavy showers most likely-lowest risk thunderstorms

Monday

unstable air Ireland - slightly unstable air most other areas.

-

Tuesday

slightly unstable air-Scotland and Northern Ireland.

-

Wednesday

slightly unstable air all areas - unstable air Northen Ireland/Northwest England.

-

Wednesday night

unstable air into Southern Coastal areas and later into morning the Southeast.

-

Thursday

unstable air Southwest England and East Anglia

slightly unstable air Ireland/England and Wales, becoming unstable air across England/South and Central Ireland and Wales and parts of East Scotland later.

remaining slightly unstable air in other areas.

-

Friday

unstable air Central England and Northern Scotland - slightly unstable air all other areas

-

Sat/Sun mostly stable air all areas

----------

please note this is not a forecast but a guide of where storms could develop using gfs data from sunday, there could be upgrade and downgrades.

[Coast]

Nothing on any dedicated sites today and only small indicators of any potential convective weather today for Ireland:

Going into a relatively quiet period for now by the looks of things with it getting better on Friday into Saturday the further North and West you are:

[SimonP]

Couldn't help but notice this from the MetOffice's forecast for Wednesday:

Thundery rain probably developing in southern Britain overnight.

Thundery rain as opposed to showers and probably, not "possibly"

Countryfile forecast did mention it too with a low moving northwards from the near continent, but with it being further east, affecting Benelux area etc. Perhaps subsequent model runs have pushed this further west, which is only a good thing...

One to watch maybe?