Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

[Snowmadsam]

Expect a lot of that snow to melt, Scandinavia is going to warm up.

evidence? Explanation?

[Gavin Hannah]

A very slight freeze thaw cycle will help the snow stick around for longer in the event that Scandi warms up during November. However, it looks like it's going to remain nice a cold for a while yet which will only help snow accumulate.

[gottolovethisweather]

evidence? Explanation?

Indeed Snowmadsam.

To attempt to answer your query in response to Aaron's original comment, I'll post some charts, some of which I believe, are only available to full subscribers.

Aaron has some right to be concerned in expecting some reduction in snowcover in the near term, however the effect will not be felt everywhere as indicated below. Right, time for some evidence, based simply on one run (not my thing).

Oslo is on the same latitude as Helsinki, but Helsinki is actually further East and coastal, so please bear this in mind.

Oslo's projected Maximum Temperatures and subsequent precipitation. I use the red line (mean) for general guidance with regard to a trend.

Oslo's situation looks favourable to me for some snowier spells right out into FI, so no problem there as far as I can see. That region will keep most of their snowcover.

Now for Helsinki's projected Maximum Temperatures and subsequent precipitation. Again, I use the red line (mean) for general guidance with regard to a trend.

Again, Helsinki will never get exceptionally warm and on the whole, it looks a drier run. The region is on the southern tip of Finland so will moreoften be unfavoured by snow but even then, I must say it looks nicely on the cool side.

The above situation will change and the reliable timeframe in those outputs is actually up for debate but everything is looking rosy at this very early stage, if looking for the ultimate NH synoptic pattern. Things remain firmly poised for a damn good November and I suspect an epic winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Whether, this percolates to our shores, we are a very long way off from knowing that answer.

Edited October 31, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[chionomaniac]

The rate of snow gain during October has been shown to be critical in the mechanism through stratospheric feedback to increase the chances of cold later on in winter. This has been demonstrated by the work of Cohen et al amongst others.

I have posted this chart many times but never is it more relevent inthis thread now.

So we now need to have a look at the net rate of snow gain during the last month. Before official figures are released for the month we can look at the snow departure charts for the end of September and October.

Here is the chart for the end of September:

The reds indicate that we are well below average.

And the most recent for October

A massive gain especially over Eurasia. So from well below average to well above and in the critical areas too.

Whether or not we start winter in a zonal pattern or not we now can start suggesting that there is some evidence pointing towards a stratospheric warming event come January - rather in a similar vein to last year.

[Ice Day]

The rate of snow gain during October has been shown to be critical in the mechanism through stratospheric feedback to increase the chances of cold later on in winter. This has been demonstrated by the work of Cohen et al amongst others.

I have posted this chart many times but never is it more relevent inthis thread now.

That's an extremely useful chart for less technical people like me! Clearly the positive anomalies the NH is experiencing now should lead to a greater chance of a severe winter. As you say, whether it filters through the the UK is another matter but it should give us a better shot in the long run!

[gottolovethisweather]

The rate of snow gain during October has been shown to be critical in the mechanism through stratospheric feedback to increase the chances of cold later on in winter. This has been demonstrated by the work of Cohen et al amongst others.

I have posted this chart many times but never is it more relevent inthis thread now.

So we now need to have a look at the net rate of snow gain during the last month. Before official figures are released for the month we can look at the snow departure charts for the end of September and October.

Here is the chart for the end of September:

The reds indicate that we are well below average.

And the most recent for October

A massive gain especially over Eurasia. So from well below average to well above and in the critical areas too.

Whether or not we start winter in a zonal pattern or not we now can start suggesting that there is some evidence pointing towards a stratospheric warming event come January - rather in a similar vein to last year.

Thanks Chiono, the area of concern therefore has to be your last paragraph and final few words. However I don't feel especially concerned about having to wait for winter proper to bite. Besides, cold zonal is ruling the roost in the UK for the forseeable and the NH conditions are simply perfect for entrenched cold eventually building over Europe. Winter itself, is a very long way off and as a coldie, I am looking forward to watching Russian and European developments.

Edited October 31, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[UV-RAY]

Early days still, but if we end up with a winter like last year then I for one won't be very happy.

[throwoff]

Looks nothing like last year to me.

Lets just hope those white pixels keep spreading!

[Radiating Dendrite]

The rate of snow gain during October has been shown to be critical in the mechanism through stratospheric feedback to increase the chances of cold later on in winter. This has been demonstrated by the work of Cohen et al amongst others.

I have posted this chart many times but never is it more relevent inthis thread now.

So we now need to have a look at the net rate of snow gain during the last month. Before official figures are released for the month we can look at the snow departure charts for the end of September and October.

Here is the chart for the end of September:

The reds indicate that we are well below average.

And the most recent for October

A massive gain especially over Eurasia. So from well below average to well above and in the critical areas too.

Whether or not we start winter in a zonal pattern or not we now can start suggesting that there is some evidence pointing towards a stratospheric warming event come January - rather in a similar vein to last year.

Interesting.

That fits in with BFTP and his thoughts, these being that winter will get progressively colder.

Feb 47" anyone?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Do we have an actual average figure for N. Hemisphere snow cover at the end of October (i.e. in Square Miles of something)?

It is difficult to get a complete picture from just looking at the positive/negative image?

[sebastiaan1973]

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/

In some time the october values will be posted here.

[Staffordshire]

Snow in moscow atm, only going by what i saw on instagram

[gottolovethisweather]

Snow in moscow atm, only going by what i saw on instagram

That is especially welcome news as Moscow is due to face a short-term warming, as are many a place in Europe, before dipping back down to Average or Below conditions into the second week of November.

[Gavin Hannah]

Snow accumulating on the hills up north.

http://www.winterhighland.info/

Very eerie!

Edited October 31, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Aaron]

evidence? Explanation?

Weather forecasts? Not rocket science really, the snow has already melted in SW Finland. The snow should stick in northern regions, winter has definitely set in there, as it always does this time of year, but further south, snow this early and in this depth is not common so don't expect it to stick. Edited October 31, 2012 by Aaron

[gottolovethisweather]

Weather forecasts? Not rocket science really

Can you please be a bit more polite to the hosts and everyone else in future Aaron.

Whilst I agree with your other comments regarding NH snowcover, I would still say a reload or two for the already effected areas may well still occur. So, all in all, things remain very positive IMHO.

My previous post here says it all really for now.

Edited October 31, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Aaron]

Sorry if I came across as a bit blunt! Even places as far north as Oulu, Finland should experience a thaw with temperatures at night above freezing.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Aaron

[gottolovethisweather]

Sorry if I came across as a bit blunt! Even places as far north as Oulu, Finland should experience a thaw with temperatures at night above freezing.

Quite possibly, but where are you seeing this? It would help us to all understand your opinion if you could back it up with a chart or a weblink of sorts.

Is a reload, still not on though?

Whatever, this tooing and froing of the snow and ice will be going for the rest of autumn and winter yet, so we will need to take the rough with the smooth. Let's see how it unfolds.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[stewfox]

Do we have an actual average figure for N. Hemisphere snow cover at the end of October (i.e. in Square Miles of something)?

It is difficult to get a complete picture from just looking at the positive/negative image?

Like this ?

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

[Ice Day]

Today vs yesterday. Snow retreating eastwards in Europe which was not unexpected, however Scandi and Canada holding strong for another day.

[mountain shadow]

Almost complete snow cover above 60 degress North, good Eurasian cover and Scandanavian cover also.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2012/ims2012305.gif

[Ice Day]

Almost complete snow cover above 60 degress North, good Eurasian cover and Scandanavian cover also.

http://www.natice.no.../ims2012305.gif

The NH view really shows how positive this years snow cover is looking, not only compared to last year but also the much heralded early winter of 2010.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

the slow snow retreat continues, but still large area of positive in the area in and around Scandinavia ,wonder if can stay positive before the next reload?

Japan has snow cover slowly and constantly coming closer to it, perhaps a snowy winter for them.

still looking to 2010 as my bechmark for winter buildup

and hoping for a reload of snow before it gets in front of 2012

[cyclonic happiness]

Notice the snow cover shape in 2010 and this year?

Hopefully it'll correspond winter wise.

[Aaron]