Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

[Methuselah]

A nail in the coffin for the theory that explosive snow cover often follows major ice loss? The snow cover explosion has been remarkable this year (and so has the ice loss)

How can a case of, as we have this year, 'explosive snow cover' following on from a 'major ice loss' be a 'nail in the coffin' of the theory that says: 'explosive snow cover often follows major ice loss'?

Eh?

[sebastiaan1973]

There was a huge jump in snowcover today due to a storm in Europe. Europe will remain stormy the next 48 hours. There's only 4 more days to record, and I would put 50-50 odds that we'll match or exceed 2009. This is a really strong signal for a negative AO this winter. SAI and AO have a 0.86 correlation according to Cohen's paper.

Another important aspect of this year's advance is that we had overall higher daily extents than in 2009. (The y-intercept is higher.) I presume that this will strengthen the signal of the SAI due to the enhanced albedo effect.

Given this SAI signal, the persistently negative AO/NAO this fall, and the warm/cold/warm tripole in the Atlantic, blocking and cold air intrustions should be frequent this winter. With a weak El Nino signal out of the Pacific, the blocking is critical.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34743-winter-2012-2013/page__st__2730#entry1821542

[liam300]

Hi Liam,

Like anything in Meteorology , it is not especially easy to answer your question without going into things at great length. I hope others will have the time to provide some information for you.

The basic gist of things is that if the Euro High sets up over Europe (as it did last season) this tends to prevent a build up of laying snow over the nearby continent, in turn making things milder, save for late winter. Generally, for colder snowier spells to effect the UK, we invariably need winds to come from a North-westerly to South-easterly quadrant on the compass. So, if as suggested, any early build up in snowcover does come along (especially October/November) this is thought to have an effect on global weather patterns, which in turn, effect the UK.

The main point to note is that our island is effected by weather/climate patterns on a global scale, hence many folk track changes in the Stratosphere and follow other factors throughout the winter.

Never be afraid to ask for assistance in these forums, as we are all still learning.

The cryposphre link is a day or two behind but the next update will be worth a comparison.

Thanks for the explanation, this provides me with a greater understanding

[Gavin Hannah]

Massive difference in Snow cover over 24 hours. Uk gets it's first white pixels of the season.

[Ruzzi]

How does the present snowcover and ice extent compare with 09/10 and 10/11?

[gottolovethisweather]

How does the present snowcover and ice extent compare with 09/10 and 10/11?

In a word, well two actually.

Very favourably.

I'm sure someone will post a comparison later.

My concern however, is a trend towards some warming over central parts of Europe and further East, come the start of November. That being said, it will stay cool to average at best over us and the Northeast section should retain its snowcover, or possibly make further gains.

Edited October 28, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[carinthian]

Morning all,

Cold air reached here overnight with a widespread snowfall down to lower levels. Live web cams show a substantial snowfall in the Northern Austrian Alps and particularly in the Southern German uplands with blizzard conditions close to the frontal trough.

C

Good Afternoon,

Latest mountain reports indicate the heaviest fall is concentrated in the Tyrol and Voralberg Regions. This area being under the influence of the coldest flow from the Northeast. Many other sector of the Austrian Alps have snowfall to varing amounts. Generally the freezing level over many parts of the west, cental and northern region is only 400m. Here in Katscherg, the boundry of the front is just to the north with snow now becoming more prolonged. Temperature -6 C currently.

Webcam - Zeitraffer.htm

[Optimus Prime]

How can a case of, as we have this year, 'explosive snow cover' following on from a 'major ice loss' be a 'nail in the coffin' of the theory that says: 'explosive snow cover often follows major ice loss'?

Eh?

And why is that so hard to understand? I'm not going to go through the algorithms involved in the process and in any case I'm sure you understand exactly what my comment meant.

[bobbydog]

And why is that so hard to understand? I'm not going to go through the algorithms involved in the process and in any case I'm sure you understand exactly what my comment meant.

i have to agree with RP mate, your post contradicts itself

[LincolnSnowstorm]

yet more snow cover! very different to any other year that's available on the noaa charts

Edited October 29, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[quest4peace]

yet more snow cover! very different to any other year that's available on the noaa charts

Think we might need several hot water bottles this winter if 2010 is used as a comparison

[Methuselah]

And why is that so hard to understand? I'm not going to go through the algorithms involved in the process and in any case I'm sure you understand exactly what my comment meant.

Because, unless it's intended to be ironic, your statement clearly contradicts itself...

[Ice Day]

A comparison of Sunday 21 October with yesterday's really show the snow 'explosion' that has taken place. Canada's now very nearly filled up!

Edited October 29, 2012 by Ice Day

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Canada have opened ski resort at record earliest time. That increase in snowcover over 1 week is astounding

BFTP

Incredible amount of snow build up.

And its only Oct but if I remember right last Oct was about the same.

No you remember wrong

BFTP

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Canada have opened ski resort at record earliest time. That increase in snowcover over 1 week is astounding

BFTP

No you remember wrong

BFTP

amazing difference just waiting for southern Norway and Sweden to be sorted now.

Edited October 29, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Mark Bayley]

Thought it would be interesting to show the average snow cover and where we are now. Clearly well above in central and western Europe plus North America.

Average

Current

Link: http://climate.rutge...ay=302&ui_set=0

Edited October 29, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[cheeky_monkey]

A comparison of Sunday 21 October with yesterday's really show the snow 'explosion' that has taken place. Canada's now very nearly filled up!

A lot of the snow in my neck of the woods will be gone this time next week..as we enter a significant warm up heading towards the weekend..15/16c forecast for Saturday

[gottolovethisweather]

A lot of the snow in my neck of the woods will be gone this time next week..as we enter a significant warm up heading towards the weekend..15/16c forecast for Saturday

Indeed, the same could well be said for Europe unfortunately. However, I don't feel it will be as extreme a rise in Temperatures as you look like getting in Canada. As long as Russia, Siberia and lands to our immediate North and Northeast remain snowcovered, things will still be looking very fruitful.

Edited October 29, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Optimus Prime]

Because, unless it's intended to be ironic, your statement clearly contradicts itself...

There is an idea/theory out there that the extensive loss of ice cover over the arctic might in turn increase levels of precipitation in the areas surrounding the arctic and because it's cold, this precipitation will fall as snow;

"Explosive snow cover often follows major ice loss"

Contradiction? It makes perfect sense to me. Pointless discussion. Ended

[LincolnSnowstorm]

A nail in the coffin for the theory that explosive snow cover often follows major ice loss? The snow cover explosion has been remarkable this year (and so has the ice loss)

I get it!

It said as a question not a statement

A nail in the coffin for the theory that explosive snow cover often follows major ice loss? we the readers go 'not at all the theory is alive and well Optimus'

and then you say 'that's right The snow cover explosion has been remarkable this year (and so has the ice loss)'

Edited October 29, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[cheeky_monkey]

Has the snow cover 'explosion' been remarkable though?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Has the snow cover 'explosion' been remarkable though?

I for one am not used to snow falling in October and I can not find a chart like it for this neck of the woods , very remarkable!

perhaps you can post other charts of more remarkable years for your part of the globe as it is natural to lean towards what effects us personally.

Moving away from remarkable or not a question

Has hurricane sandy any chance of bringing snowy weather for us in the coming days by bringing cold air from Greenland or is the air warmer because of being from an ex hurricane?

Edited October 29, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Frostbite80]

I for one am not used to snow falling in October and I can not find a chart like it for this neck of the woods , very remarkable!

perhaps you can post other charts of more remarkable years for your part of the globe as it is natural to lean towards what effects us personally.

Moving away from remarkable or not a question

Has hurricane sandy any chance of bringing snowy weather for us in the coming days by bringing cold air from Greenland or is the air warmer because of being from an ex hurricane?

Sandy won't directly bring snow and due to it's NW path i don't think it will have much of an effect on our weather if at all, however if she had moved out into the atlantic it could of caused WAA towards Greenland, which could of encouraged more height rises over Greenland which in turn could have given us colder prospects down the line. Edited October 29, 2012 by Frostbite80

[cheeky_monkey]

I for one am not used to snow falling in October and I can not find a chart like it for this neck of the woods , very remarkable!

perhaps you can post other charts of more remarkable years for your part of the globe as it is natural to lean towards what effects us personally.

i was looking at the Northern Hemisphere snow cover yes its above average now..but can change in a blink of an eye this time next week could very well be below average again...its not unremarkable to have snow here at this time of the year for it to last into the winter would be more of a story though

[LincolnSnowstorm]

i was looking at the Northern Hemisphere snow cover yes its above average now..but can change in a blink of an eye this time next week could very well be below average again...its not unremarkable to have snow here at this time of the year for it to last into the winter would be more of a story though

Again I canot find a chart like it but I think the story of the winter will not be four months of above average snow cover but more extreme winter weather warm and cold , like you say lose the snow and cold in a blink of an eye and I say reload boom and its comes back hard at us.