Ireland Regional Discussion

[Ice Cube]

Just drove down to Limerick from Wexford the tops of the hills (small mountains!) were white. Things looking good for an attack from the East just hope it survives the Irish Sea crossing!

[adalton]

If this is still shown on the weekend runs I might just flip out !

12zs today will be interesting, will the UKMO come over to the GFS and ECM way of thinking ?

[The watcher]

Hello all, definitely liking the looks of the ECM from next Wednesday onwards, still far out but wow Even the great MT over on boards.ie is talking about the snow potential for next week! I just hope that if it does arrive that it gets further west than the favoured east coast! Exciting times ahead!

Welcome CS to our little corner of the forums, also Adalton, Welcome.

Just in from work and about to give the days runs a look over. Sound promising from what you all say. In an Easterly it is difficult for us to get snowfall 70% of the time, but once the cold is established, the snow will come eventually.

[gingercat]

Temp is currently 0C here...sky is overcast.....

[ronan]

So is there any chance of snow tomorrow with this front coming through? I just don't think the uppers will be cold enough? Maybe a bit of wintryness on high ground!

[Donegal-Charlie]

For the more superstitious among us http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/10/23/donegals-famous-weatherman-predicts-snow-before-christmas/ Can't say I buy into his methods, although he has left met eireann rather red faced in the past!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Donegal-Charlie

[BIG LAD]

very cold today. frost hasnt melted in the shade. currently -0.6c.

[gingercat]

weather forecast says warmer air is coming, as a result any precipitation will be rain, not snow

[ronan]

Yes that's true Ginger but Cold air will dig in after the front passes through introducing some wintry showers again! In all honesty we haven't seen anything mild for weeks!!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Bad black Ice this morning some snow last night too.

Is it me or do easterlies never give us what we want??

[sundog]

Bad black Ice this morning some snow last night too.

Is it me or do easterlies never give us what we want??

Since feb 91 i think nearly every easterly has been a let down for this country, thats why i always would prefer any cold we get to come courtesy of a greenland HP rather then a scandi one. But i suppose we are due a good easterly cold spell sooner or later and next week certainly has potential even if say a more watered down version was to happen.

Edited December 5, 2012 by sundog

[BIG LAD]

Bad black Ice this morning some snow last night too.

Is it me or do easterlies never give us what we want??

our friend the altantic will always have its say even in an easterly. would have thought we are primed for something wintry tonight but seems not so. yet as soon as the front hits scotland it will readily turn to snow at low levels. freezing hard outside -1.2c currently.

[CrimsonSunset]

Today's ECM output for the middle to end of next week is about as cold an easterly as possible for NW Europe. As its still a week away you can be sure that it will be downgraded. Sad fact is, for those of us away from the east coast, to see snowfall and deep cold from an easterly we would really need an extreme setup just like that model output ie. -8c/-10c uppers etc. I suppose it's possible that it could happen but I wouldn't have faith in it til its 3 days away.

Edited December 5, 2012 by CrimsonSunset

[The watcher]

I usually set the ball park at -10c 850's for snowfall across Ireland in an Easterly.

Two reasons for this:

1. To help kick off convection from the Irish Sea

2. To allow the convection to be deep enough for reaching well inland.

Although, with retrogression to Greenland looking favourable after the initial Easterly we could see a win win situation anyway, embedded cold followed by precipitation and frontal activity.

[Rocheydub]

Incredibly the GFS is remarkably similar to the ECM solution out to 168. I will be bitterly disappointed if we don't all get something by next week...

[sundog]

I reckon we will see some sort of cold spell next week, then something less cold for a few days then a big reload in time for xmas. Then again i couldd be talking crap lol,just a guess.

Edited December 5, 2012 by sundog

[The watcher]

I reckon we will see some sort of cold spell next week, then something less cold for a few days then a big reload in time for xmas. Then again i couldd be talking crap lol,just a guess.

The models could be talking crap aswell for all we know. Good consistency, but consistency is no good if something changes early on in a few hours. Can be the difference between an Easterly and a Southwesterly. However, with all the signals pointing to something of this nature (beyond the synoptic models) then I would put what is being shown now at a fairly high 65% rate of happening. Widespread Ireland snowfall in 8/9 days is what I would consider.

[sundog]

The models could be talking crap aswell for all we know. Good consistency, but consistency is no good if something changes early on in a few hours. Can be the difference between an Easterly and a Southwesterly. However, with all the signals pointing to something of this nature (beyond the synoptic models) then I would put what is being shown now at a fairly high 65% rate of happening. Widespread Ireland snowfall in 8/9 days is what I would consider.

Yes i would not trust the models just yet and they are certainly not always the best when it comes to modelling easterlies i have often thought. Though the way things are looking overall i would be surprised if we dont see some snowfall before xmas or before the end of the month.

Edited December 6, 2012 by sundog

[mountain shadow]

A bit of sleet in the wind today. High wind chill.

Maybe a bit of the white stuff in the wrap around tomorrow before the big freeze next week.

[The watcher]

A bit of sleet in the wind today. High wind chill.

Maybe a bit of the white stuff in the wrap around tomorrow before the big freeze next week.

What's your view on the risk of snowfall given the likely setup for next week MS?

I'm thinking showers to East coast, some pushing inland. Possibly some frontal snow for Southern Ireland (nearest any Lows/Shortwaves to the South).

I know it is still early days, but nice to speculate a little.

[stormforce 10]

an atrocious morning here with heavy driving rain after a very frosty night.

[ronan]

Just imagine this front falling as snow!! That would have been epic!! Hopefully next weeks cold if confirmed comes from a more North Easterly direction as I just don't have any faith in a full blown Easterly! We shall see soon enough!

[gingercat]

Really horrible out there today

[Rocheydub]

Too early really to predict, but the form horse is for light flurries for eastern counties. The winds look too slack so far for any meaningful inroads to inland counties, and the upper air isn't the coldest ever either... There is of course, plenty of times for upgrades and downgrades to this all!

Ideally, I'd love us to stay in an ever increasing cold pool, with the odd disturbances causing snow for all! That is until the pressure builds over Greenie and turns the island white for the big mans visit!!!

[adalton]

I'll be happy when I am staring at the loop on Sat24 and I see a streamer forming ! Until then I am a nervous wreck