Ireland Regional Discussion

[The watcher]

That system coming up from the south seems to be moving very slow! Been watching on the radar the past few hours!! Could be interesting over night!

I might do an all nighter tonight to watch the cold front come through. Probably won't though.

Absolutely astonishing charts tonight.

What percentage do you think I'll give a NorthEasterly this time then?

I will hold back the celebrations for now though. Still time for it all to go tits up. I was looking at charts earlier thinking, not much margin for error in regards to where the real cold uppers go. Look back tonight and the North Pole near lands ontop of us.

[stormforce 10]

stunning stunning ecm tonight, we could be in for something special this winter. fingers crossed.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nice thunderstorm last night in Cork, plenty of lightning, torrential rain and very strong winds

[stormforce 10]

all this rain is appalling, we really need a break from it.

[Baltic Regions]

Serious reading there in the 12z thread.

I'm drained now!

[ronan]

Serious reading Baltic but its starting to bore the life of me now especially the people constantly looking for negative things! There's a few posting on there and i would love to tell them what i really thing of them! LOL

[Rocheydub]

I thing I love you :-)

[sundog]

Serious reading Baltic but its starting to bore the life of me now especially the people constantly looking for negative things! There's a few posting on there and i would love to tell them what i really thing of them! LOL

Yes some of them would do your head in , picking out every little detail out of every run ive always thought as pointless,fair enough inside say T96 hrs or something but after that whats the point they are just doing their own heads in.

The trend is for colder weather and that should be good enough for us all , patience is requierd. Dec 2010 raised alot of peoples expectations so that they are now chasing snowmaggedon earlier in the season then usual (granted of course there have been some exciting charts etc). Anyway it will be interesting to see what happens over the next week or two.

[ronan]

Decent enough charts this morning again! What I wondering is how are we going to fair from the incoming cold? Are we just going to be cold with no precip, do we need the blocking high to be pushed further west and will it be Eastern parts of Ireland that will do best from this? All up for discussion but I can't wait to see the back of November!!

[The Eagle]

Decent enough charts this morning again! What I wondering is how are we going to fair from the incoming cold? Are we just going to be cold with no precip, do we need the blocking high to be pushed further west and will it be Eastern parts of Ireland that will do best from this? All up for discussion but I can't wait to see the back of November!!

Hi Ronan,

The template is 2010 really. I think the east and north would fair best (or worst depending on your perspective!) in terms of snow. I think we could see interchange between northerly, northeasterly and easterly flow well in to at least the 2nd or 3rd week of December. Things are going to start happening from Tuesday.

I think severe frosts are likely from Tuesday night and ice as well. With the time of year and the weather increasingly cold by day we should start to see frost and ice persisting through daylight hours as in 2010. Toward the end of next week is when things get interesting in terms of increasingly wintry showers on windward coasts and potential for snow as much colder upper air starts coming west.

There is also a chance of some weather fronts brushing up the west of the country, as shown on the models, coming up against the northeast flow and there is potential for sleet or snow in these areas.

It's a little early yet to be precise. I think we can be certain that severe frost and ice starts maybe Tuesday night with nighttime temperatures very low from then on, well below freezing for many.

[ronan]

Nice one Eagle. Thanks for your reply! I travel allot with my job and most days go over the Glenshane so looking forward to seeing how things develope over the next week!

[gingercat]

If this is going to be a repeat of 2010 then I'm very scared. I do like snow and cold weather as I think it's the way it should be this time of year but I'm not a fan of extremes. Things get worrying when you are housebound and have elderly and sick relations to worry about. Don't want to rain on anyone's parade btw

[LED]

With the jetstream moving way off the south of Ireland towards next weekend it would allow the colder highs to become more established . In general its an interesting setup we are in for towards next weekend .

[Downburst]

If this is going to be a repeat of 2010 then I'm very scared. I do like snow and cold weather as I think it's the way it should be this time of year but I'm not a fan of extremes. Things get worrying when you are housebound and have elderly and sick relations to worry about. Don't want to rain on anyone's parade btw

don't worry for a couple of reasons. Nothing has happened yet. You are getting early warning of a possible event. so you are taking on board what 99% of others haven't and are worrying ahead of time. But most NB if it does happen it might be cold and dry and actually nicer than normal. The press and this site will blow this all out of proportion with worse case scenarios. I promise you it will be fine

[LED]

don't worry for a couple of reasons. Nothing has happened yet. You are getting early warning of a possible event. so you are taking on board what 99% of others haven't and are worrying ahead of time. But most NB if it does happen it might be cold and dry and actually nicer than normal. The press and this site will blow this all out of proportion with worse case scenarios. I promise you it will be fine

Hi with what certainty can you say that it will be fine or is it just a gut feeling.

Edited November 23, 2012 by LED

[Downburst]

Hi with what certainty can you say that it will be fine .

about 100 years of averages and max and means to look from the records and understanding and being qualified in mathematics along with looking at the models before me which have yet to show anything more than a heavy frost out to FI. With that said I can get all dramatic for you if it helps. "you will be snowed in for 3 weeks, your pipes will burst and you will fall and break your skull on the ice!" Enjoy.

[Rocheydub]

For me, it's far from certain we'll be in a deep freeze like 2010 or late 2009... But we will have ice nights, and I'd imagine there will be some snowfall, whether it's as disruptive is uncertain, but I would strongly of the opinion that local councils will be far better prepared for such an event, if it did occur.

[LED]

about 100 years of averages and max and means to look from the records and understanding and being qualified in mathematics along with looking at the models before me which have yet to show anything more than a heavy frost out to FI. With that said I can get all dramatic for you if it helps. "you will be snowed in for 3 weeks, your pipes will burst and you will fall and break your skull on the ice!" Enjoy.

OK was just curious taught you might have had some other information , im not one for all the hysterics and misleading information that goes on .

[Downburst]

OK was just curious taught you might have had some other information , im not one for all the hysterics and misleading information that goes on .

Sensible approach. Some of the experts people refer to are still in school, just remember that. I think in Ireland one has to be very aware of our position even further away from the east and even more modified by warm water. I think the weather pattern forecast is very far from normal to say the least and that there is a lot of chance of colder weather potential but I would leave it at that for now in terms of the forecast until perhaps early next week. Never ever expect snow for certain outside a 24 hour forecast. This time if it does snow it will not be as much a shock. Driving will be better, people will cope better than last time I hope.

[stormforce 10]

a much brighter day here, a few showers around and quite cool.

looking at the model charts today and temps are gonna take a dip.

guys looks like this cold weather could start tonight. met eirann forecasting -4c?

Edited November 23, 2012 by stormforce 10

[Downburst]

a much brighter day here, a few showers around and quite cool.

looking at the model charts today and temps are gonna take a dip.

guys looks like this cold weather could start tonight. met eirann forecasting -4c?

yes it is cold already with a NW airflow. What I am thinking again looking ahead is when and if it does snow and lets say we get the "snow fields" the embedded cold air on the surface that happens, Does the GFS for instance add that to the model, or take it into account or not for the future? I don't see very cold low temps forecast and I question whether the snow is taken into account yet or not.

[The watcher]

If this is going to be a repeat of 2010 then I'm very scared. I do like snow and cold weather as I think it's the way it should be this time of year but I'm not a fan of extremes. Things get worrying when you are housebound and have elderly and sick relations to worry about. Don't want to rain on anyone's parade btw

I think we all share a little worry when it comes to extreme weather gc. That is why we are all here wondering what is going to happen next and share it to those that need the information. An extreme event is probably only a 20% chance at the moment though, a winter cold spell maybe 7-10 days is what we are considering at the moment with ice and snowfall for some. It has the potential to be as potent or more as 2010, but that would be a super rare event. Unfortunately it is all out of our hands, the best we can do is watch and see what happens and prepare for it. Wouldn't it be great if we could have snowfall in heatwave temperatures.

P.S. Welcome back to some of you and new faces. Enjoy the rollercoaster this winter.

Edited November 23, 2012 by The watcher

[gingercat]

Thank you Downburst and Watcher for your reassurance. I suppose it is still a way off and nothing is concrete until it actually happens, if it does happen. I notice they put a video on the bbc weather page suggesting that we might get the Siberian winds again. I think that concerned me most as normally the bbc are not known for their "ramping"!

[skywatcher]

Ginger, you only have to read the frantic posts in the Models Thread to know that all one can say with (near) certainty is that it's going to get somewhat colder. Anything else comes under the heading of "potential". I'm with Rochydub on this one for this upcoming cold snap - icy nights and perhaps even the odd ice day, but no 2010. In other words, mugs of drinking chocolate with marshmallows, winter boots, but very little actual inconvenience.

Edited November 23, 2012 by The watcher

[sundog]

Ginger, you only have to read the frantic posts in the Models Thread to know that all one can say with (near) certainty is that it's going to get somewhat colder. Anything else comes under the heading of "potential". I'm with Rochydub on this one for this upcoming cold snap - icy nights and perhaps even the odd ice day, but no 2012. In other words, mugs of drinking chocolate with marshmallows, winter boots, but very little actual inconvenience.

I agree,i dont think we will get another 2010 with the upcoming cold spell, although you never know what might happen a few weeks down the road if we were to get reloads. I would like to think of the cold spell as a starters with the main course being served sometime later on.

Edited November 23, 2012 by The watcher